Women’s college basketball had a night for the history books Monday with four legendary teams and four superstars coming together to battle for four more — the Final Four. The national semifinal is now set: The undefeated South Carolina Gamecocks will face the NC State Wolfpack, who battled through No. 1 and 2 seeds to get here. On the other side of the bracket, Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes will face Paige Bueckers and the UConn Huskies.
Millions of fans across America (preliminary viewing figures expected Tuesday) tuned in Monday night to see Clark and the Hawekeyes’ national title rematch against Angel Reese and the LSU Tigers, followed by a Bueckers showcase against JuJu Watkins. The hype was widely publicized. Both games were tied at halftime and both were double-digits over the total.
Now it’s time to reset and look ahead to the Final Four this weekend.
Friday’s first national semifinal between South Carolina and NC State will begin at 7 p.m. from Cleveland, and the second semifinal between Iowa and UConn will begin at 9:30 p.m., with both games broadcast on ESPN.
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2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament National Title Odds
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It’s not shocking to see South Carolina as the favorite to win this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Gamecocks are 11.5-point favorites against NC State in the first national semifinal, while Iowa faces a tough matchup against UConn and the Hawkeyes are only favored by 2.5 points.
South Carolina has two national championships in its history, the most recent in 2022, but still has the bitter taste of losing to Iowa in the Final Four in 2023. This will be the second year in a row that Dawn Staley has entered the Final Four with the only undefeated team of the season. She replaced all her starters and still came back here with the best team in the country.
Iowa aims to advance to the championship game for the second time in school history and, this time, win the title. The Hawkeyes’ chances are closing in on the Gamecocks, but still closer to third seed UConn. Geno Auriemma’s Huskies are a perennial power, with 23 Final Four appearances and 11 championships.
After those three, NC State is a distant underdog. But the team has dominated and outperformed this tournament and is looking to advance to the championship game for the first time in program history.
South Carolina vs. NC State Final Four Odds
Four different players have led South Carolina in scoring in every game of the 2024 NCAA Tournament so far, and the Gamecocks will have to look more to Kamilla Cardoso in the Final Four and beyond. But the Gamecocks have been unbeatable thus far because of this balance on the team. They are elite rebounders and lead the nation in opponent points per 100 possessions.
Indiana gave South Carolina its biggest scare of this NCAA tournament and the second-closest scare of its undefeated season. The Gamecocks only won by four points. Only Tennessee gave Dawn Staley’s team a tougher game in the SEC Tournament when South Carolina won by a point.
No. 3 NC State beat Tennessee and beat No. 2 Stanford and No. 1 Texas to advance to its first final four since 1998. Aziaha James continues to be one of the stars of this year’s tournament , averaging 24.3 points per game after averaging just 16.7 points per game this season. She also had at least four assists in every game except for the blowout first-round win over Chatanooga.
6-foot-5 senior River Baldwin will be key against the Gamecocks and hopefully can grab critical rebounds on both ends of the court. Extra possessions will be key for NC State to play in its first championship game in school history.
Iowa vs. UConn Final Four Odds
Caitlin Clark turned in a career performance in Iowa’s win over LSU on Monday night, and the key to their victory wasn’t just her scoring power but her ability to create for her team. Clark scored 41 points, a number she has surpassed only three other times this season. But she also led the Hawkeyes in assists with 12. Kate Martin (21) and Sydney Affolter (16) both shot well above their season averages, and the team shot 46.4 for hundred on the ground.
The Hawkeyes will need to repeat that group performance to beat UConn and whoever they face in the final. And of course, they’ll need Clark to continue playing like her.
UConn is back in the Final Four for the 15th time in 16 years. In this tournament, Bueckers hasn’t scored fewer than 24 points in a game, she has a double-double in three of four and she averages 1.5 blocks and 3.3 steals per game. And she’s getting help. In their game against USC, Aaliyah Edwards nearly tied him in points with 24 (her season average is 17.6). Nika Mühl averages 4 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals per game and will likely have to do a lot of the work to compete with Clark.
The matchup between Iowa and UConn promises to be an extremely competitive matchup. Both teams are rather small compared to, say, LSU or South Carolina. Both have a superstar point scorer in Clark and Bueckers. And these two superstars will have to continue creating for their teammates to dominate in the semi-final and final. UConn’s concern is their lack of depth.
Last four model projections
Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project each team’s chances of advancing through each round of the tournament and the scores of each match. Based on one million simulations of the 2024 NCAA women’s tournament, it projected the scores of the women’s Final Four games.
His projections match the odds of a double-digit point spread between the Gamecocks and Wolfpack and put the Hawkeyes against the Huskies as a straight pick.
South Carolina vs. NC State
Team | Projected Score |
---|---|
62.8 |
|
75.8 |
UConn vs. Iowa
Team | Projected Score |
---|---|
80.8 |
|
80.8 |
For national title odds, Austin’s odds put Iowa and UConn closer to BetMGM’s futures odds, but South Carolina is still significantly ahead of the pack.
Team | Champion |
---|---|
68.4% |
|
14.6% |
|
14.6% |
|
2.4% |
(Caitlin Clark Photo: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)