Welcome to today’s MLB Projections, powered by Derek Carty’s THE BAT X and Austin Mock’s Projection Model. Both Carty and Mock deploy complex statistics and projection models to guide betting choices throughout the MLB season. Of course, the end goal of all this analysis is to improve your enjoyment of watching baseball, whether you’re poring over the odds all day long or just want more in-depth information on your favorite team’s game.
Below you’ll find — well, A LOT of numbers. For those new to baseball betting (first of all, welcome and how did you get here!), we’ve included some links and brief explanations. For data lovers and betting pros, you can skip straight to the good stuff.
In the first set of data, Derek Carty Analysis of electric vehicles takes into account everything from best odds value to Monday’s weather. There are playoff and World Series odds, quantified as percentage chances, for all MLB teams. The data also produced betting angles and player prop information.
Below, each weekday, you’ll find Austin Mock’s screenings, including “K Prop of the Day,” “Beat the streak» choose and “Dinger of the day”. Brief explanations of each are included below.
All odds you see are from PariMGM and you can buy tickets for every MLB game here.
BAT X SCREENINGS
For starters: In the tables below you will see the details of each MLB game and then lots of numbers: “Silver Line” shows the odds for each team on BetMGM. “implied % gain” is the chance a team has of winning based on these BetMGM odds. “THE BAT X wins %” is a team’s chance of winning based on EV Analytics projections. “Cash line” This is how THE BAT “Value” is the percentage difference between the odds and our projections.
Obviously, the higher the value percentage, the better – which you can easily see by the color coding from red (bad choice) to green (good choice).
Note: On mobile, you may need to scroll down to see the color-coded “Value” column on the far right of the first set of tables.
Austin Mock Model Daily Releases
Austin Mock’s statistical model runs every MLB game 100,000 times to get projections of each day’s results. It offers the following choices for your daily MLB bets, based on these projections.
K accessory of the day
Mock’s model projects the starting pitcher’s best bet strikeout odds. First, you’ll see Mock’s pick for the best bet with BetMGM odds, then Mock’s projection for that pitcher’s actual strikeouts today. Finally, Mock’s track record so far.
- Ranger Suarez over 6.5 +110
- Model Projection: 7.0
- Overall simulation record: 4-4, -0.75 units, -7.3% return on investment
Beat sequence choice
The best player to pick for a hit today, according to Mock’s model. Plus Mock’s current streak and overall record.
- Choice: Freddie Freeman (74.6%)
- Current Mock series: 4
- Mock’s overall record: 4-2
Dinger of the day
Our Dinger of the Day is someone whose odds of hitting a home run today are very different from the Austin model’s projections. This is not so much a prediction of who will hit a home run, but rather a question of the model versus posted odds that have a significant variance in value.
- Davis Schneider YES Home Run BetMGM Odds: +450
- Projection of Mock’s model onto Schneider’s odds: +374
- Mock’s overall record: 0-7, -7.00 units, -100.0% ROI
You can buy tickets for every MLB game here.
(Photo: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Chung Sung-Jun / Getty Images; Quinn Harris / Getty Images; design by Sean Reilly)