The Boston Celtics are poised to knock off the Miami Heat in the NBA Playoffs, but the LA Clippers-Dallas Mavericks series is wide open. Both series reached Game 5 on Wednesday. The Celtics are heavily favored at home, while the Mavs are slightly favored on the road.
The Celtics didn’t have much trouble with the Heat without Jimmy Butler, aside from one game where Miami couldn’t miss from 3-point range. Even with that weird stat that Boston is 13-14 in the last 27 home playoff games, Boston is a heavy favorite to finish the series tonight.
What’s strange about the other series is that the Clippers play better without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers are 2-0 when he sits and 0-2 when he plays. Does this make sense? Maybe.
Here’s a look at both NBA Playoff games on Wednesday with odds, staff picks and previews.
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No. 8 Miami Heat vs. No. 1 Boston Celtics
How to watch: 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Boston leads the series 3-1
Series odds: Celtics -10000, Heat +9000
There doesn’t seem to be much else to say about this series. Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat simply don’t have the firepower to keep up with Boston on a seven-game series. They may not have had enough to stand out from the team with the best record in the regular season anyway, but four games showed that Miami had to turn the lights out to win and wasn’t otherwise close.
Derrick White scored a career-high 38 points in a 14-point Game 4 win. The game was never really close. Boston led by 28 points, marking the third complete blowout of the series. The Celtics led by 34 points in Game 1 and by 29 points in Game 3.
The gap for Game 5 increased by a few points from the start of the series. It may not be enough to think about Miami yet.
This series is mostly over, but the long-term concern for Boston is Kristaps Porzingis’ calf injury. He previously had his left calf taped for Game 4, then left the game with the injury. He’s had a series of ups and downs, but the Celtics will need him later in the playoffs.
Boston is -225 to win the Eastern Conference, and those odds won’t change much even if Porzingis is out for a while. Milwaukee is down its two top stars and is on the verge of elimination. Philadelphia, considered one of Boston’s top threats with Joel Embiid’s back, has failed to win close games against New York and is also on the verge of elimination. If Milwaukee and Philadelphia exit in the first round, Boston will be an even more overwhelming favorite to advance to the NBA Finals.
Expert Picks for Heat at Celtics
No. 5 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers
How to watch: 10 p.m. ET on TNT
Series tied 2-2
Series odds: Mavericks -185, Clippers +150
This series seems to be about whether the Clippers can successfully get Kawhi Leonard back into the lineup. Leonard missed Games 1 and 4, both Clippers win. Leonard played in Games 2 and 3, both Clippers losses.
Leonard looked rusty when he played. His knee inflammation is a concern moving forward, but the Clippers have survived quite well without him. James Harden’s play made the big difference. In the Clippers’ two wins, he averaged 30.5 points while shooting 10 of 16 from 3-point range and averaged 7.5 assists. In both games Kawhi played, Harden’s volume was down. In Game 2, Harden was 2 of 10 from 3-point range and in Game 3, he had five turnovers.
How much of Harden’s performance gap is because a 34-year-old can’t have stellar games every night, and how much is because the Clippers are playing differently with Kawhi absent? This is what coach Tyronn Lue and the Clippers need to understand to manage Leonard’s injury and playing time moving forward.
In the short term, they managed to win twice without Kawhi, but leaving him because the team is playing well against Dallas without him probably hinders the team’s chances of making a more meaningful run in the future. The Clippers might be able to win this series without Leonard, but it seems less likely that they’ll be true title contenders beyond that unless he comes back and plays at or near the MVP level of the NBA finals that we have seen twice in his career.
All this talk about Leonard’s injury is almost enough to make everyone forget how wild Game 4 was on Sunday. The Clippers led by 31 points, leading 55-24 midway through the second quarter only to see the Mavs go on a 52-23 run in response. Despite taking a huge lead and falling behind with less than two minutes remaining, the Clippers managed to pull out a crucial road victory.
Kyrie Irving scored 40 points in Game 4, and he and Luka Dončić are averaging about 29 points per game in the series. The Clippers may be figuring out the pecking order of their offense while treating Leonard to full strength, but there’s no doubt who Dallas’ two best players are. Irving and Dončić will have to be superhuman for this team to make a deep run into the playoffs, but we’ve seen it before from both of them.
It’s also no secret how important Doncic is to Dallas’ success. Here is your proof:
The Mavs are +32 when Luka plays.
They are -35 when he sits.
He’s been sitting for 19 minutes.
– Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) April 29, 2024
Expert Picks for Mavericks at Clippers
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