One of the most frequently asked questions every year is: How does this NHL Draft compare to recent years? I believe it all starts at the top, focusing on the degree of impact of the very first choices, emphasizing the #1 choice. So I asked those in the industry to compare this year’s projected No. 1 selection, Macklin Celebrini, a Boston University center, to the last nine top overall picks.
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2024 NHL Draft prospect rankings: Celebrini tops Pronman’s list, Levshunov follows
Six NHL scouts and executives were interviewed for this list. They were asked to rank players based on what they thought of prospects during their draft years. The last part is essential and difficult to control 100% given the information we have since obtained on many players and possible retrospective bias. Six electors were chosen instead of an odd number of five because Celebrini was tied with Jack Hughes after the initial poll of five electors.
1. Connor McDavid – 2015, average ranking: 1
This was the easiest vote for the panel. McDavid was the definition of a generational prospect as a special skater with tremendous skills, hockey sense and a high level of competition. He’s as close to a perfect hockey player as I’ve seen as a fan.
2. Connor Bédard — 2023, average ranking: 2.33
Bédard was able to meet expectations when he was healthy. He was Chicago’s best player when he was in the lineup. His puck skills and offensive imagination are elite, and he has a special scoring touch while still being able to play with pace and compete. The distinction between him and McDavid would be McDavid’s exceptional athleticism in his skating and size.
Two of the six voters favored Matthews in second place. Some preferred Matthews for his size and confidence to play center in the NHL. Bédard was a solid NHL center as a rookie, but because of his frame, one wonders if he’s going to get beat in the faceoff circle like Jack Hughes did.
3. Auston Matthews — 2016, average rating: 2.67
Matthews didn’t get a vote lower than number 3, reflecting how dominant he was in his draft season between his play in Europe and internationally. His performance at the Men’s World Championship is one of the best ever by a draft-eligible freshman. Throughout his amateur career, he displayed incredible goal-scoring ability and elite talent.
4. Jack Hughes — 2019, average ranking: 4.83
The votes began to disperse around this box. Hughes ended up at No. 4, and most voters had him in that position, but he got votes as low as No. 7. There were minor concerns at the time regarding Hughes’ size and how his game would translate, but he was an outstanding prospect who led a record-setting NTDP U.S. team due to his elite skating and skill .
5. Macklin Celebrini — 2024, average ranking: 5.17
This year’s article focuses on Celebrini, who falls right in the middle of this group, reflecting the fact that the industry views him as an average top pick. He got two votes at #4, but also got as low a vote as at #7.
Celebrini fans view him as a potential number one center in the NHL who can provide excellent two-way value. “He’s not Sidney Crosby at the same age, but he’s a lot closer to Crosby than he is to (Nico) Hischier,” one scout said.
An executive who ranked it a little lower is a little concerned about its benefits. “I think he has more skill and offense than Matty Beniers, but I view him as that type of player. I think he’ll score, he’ll have 60, 70, 75 point seasons in the NHL, but I don’t think he’ll be an elite offensive producer.
The fact that he slots in behind Hughes is interesting, as Celebrini has been a dominant junior and college player, while Hughes was not a full-time college player during his draft season.
6. Rasmus Dahlin — 2018, average ranking: 6
Similar to Bédard versus Matthews for second-best center, voters were nearly split between Dahlin and Power for best defensive prospect of the last decade. Four voters preferred Dahlin, two preferred Power, and they were always separated by one or two places in each voter’s overall list. Dahlin’s draft season was excellent. He made SHL opponents look ridiculous at times with his skills and was the best defenseman in his World Junior Championship.
7. Owen Power — 2021, average ranking: 6.67
While Dahlin was the flashy, scoring type of defender in his draft season, Power was the opposite. He wasn’t the sexiest No. 1 pick, but he looked like a potential No. 1 defenseman as a huge but mobile defenseman with legitimate skills, puck-moving ability and a consistent, complete game.
8. Nico Hischier — 2017, average ranking: 7.92
There was a break for the panel of the two defenders to the next group of players. Hischier received one vote for seventh place, but was otherwise between numbers 8 and 9 in each poll. Hischier was a very productive player in his draft season and had an excellent World Junior, although his U18 World Championship was not as good. He was considered a very skilled and intelligent all-around player, but he was not considered a potential elite offensive player.
Lafrenière was probably the most controversial player in this group. Although he has become a good NHL player, he has not become the premier winger one might hope for with a No. 1 overall pick. Most of the panelists had it at 9 or 10 years old. They cited his poor skating and positioning as reasons why he was not a good number one overall at the time. Some may remember that he was a hot prospect and some evaluators saw star potential in him. That’s why one scout placed him 6th on his ballot ahead of Dahlin and Power, reflecting that he thought he had elite skills and would become an impact wing even if he didn’t. hasn’t done it yet.
10. Juraj Slafkovsky — 2022, average ranking: 9.67
Slafkovsky was a divisive first overall pick at the time, in part because the 2022 draft lacked a clear No. 1 prospect. Even scouts who had Slafkovsky as the No. 1 prospect in the class say he wouldn’t excite them too much with the pick. Slafkovsky has been very good in the second half of this NHL season, looking like a big, fast winger with excellent puck play who could become a true top winger for a while.
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / Athleticism. Photos by Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini and Auston Matthews: Kevin Sousa, David Berding, Ethan Miller / Getty Images)