No position can change the outlook of a playoff series more than goaltending performance – not always in a positive way, either. This can turn average teams into contenders in an instant and contenders into contenders just as quickly. Goaltenders are always the most important X-factor in a playoff series, and many important goaltenders will take center stage on Sunday as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue.
In Tampa Bay, the Lightning could become an instant threat to win it all if Andrei Vasilevskiy can start playing like Andrei Vasilevskiy again. The 2023-24 season was tough for him as he missed the first month of the season recovering from off-season surgery and never really played at his normal level. Their series with Florida begins Sunday, and given how well the Lightning can score, a Vasilevskiy-type playoff performance could make this an extremely tough matchup.
The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers have some truly elite skaters, including forward Artemi Panarin and defenseman Adam Fox, but the player who really sets them apart is Igor Shesterkin. He has a .932 save percentage since February 1 and has gone into Superman mode over the past three months. Whatever flaws the Rangers have, they disappear when he plays like that. They open their series with the Washington Capitals.
It’s a similar story in Winnipeg, where Connor Hellebuyck made a strong MVP case with his performance in helping the Jets to a 52-win, 110-point season. It gives them a huge, decisive advantage – on paper, anyway – in their first-round series against the Colorado Avalanche, who haven’t had any consistent goaltending all season and have had some of the worst goaltending of all playoff teams on the field. season.
The best goaltending matchup in the first round, at least in terms of quality on both sides, might be the Vancouver-Nashville series, where Thatcher Demko of the Canucks faces Juuse Saros of the Predators.
It’s no exaggeration to say that this is the most important position in the playoffs. Sometimes you just can’t predict who will get the game they need and who won’t.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers – Game 1
How to watch: 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, SN360
Key takeaways
- Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had the worst individual season of his career, producing just a .900 save percentage for the season. Combined with their backups, the Lightning ranked 28th in the NHL in team save percentage, lowest among playoff teams.
- Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov won his second scoring title this season and set a career high with 144 points, breaking his previous personal best of 128 points.
- The Panthers enter the playoffs allowing just 2.41 goals per game, and they are tied for the lowest mark in the NHL. This is a nearly 180-degree turnaround from a year ago, when they entered the playoffs ranked 21st in goals allowed per game.
- Sergei Bobrovsky’s playoff performance will always be a topic of discussion due to the struggles he has had throughout his career. But in the last two years with the Panthers, he posted a very good .914 save percentage, a 16-12 record and helped the Panthers win four playoff series.
- This has become one of the most underrated – and fiercest – on-ice rivalries in the NHL in recent years, and this will be the third playoff meeting in the last five years. Tampa Bay has won the previous two series.
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Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers – Game 1
How to watch: 3 p.m. ET on ESPN, SN
Key takeaways
- The Capitals’ minus-37 goal differential is the worst for a playoff team since the 1990-91 season, when the Hartford Whalers (minus-38) and Vancouver Canucks (minus-72) advanced to the playoffs. During this season, 16 of the league’s 21 teams qualified for the playoffs.
- The only big positive for the Capitals, aside from Alex Ovechkin’s recent surge, was the surprising play of goaltender Charlie Lindgren. He has shockingly become the Capitals’ starter and has played brilliant hockey over the past two months, owning a .916 save percentage since March 1.
- Speaking of goaltenders, New York’s Igor Shesterkin is one of the best in the league and has also taken his game to another level in the second half of the season. His overall save percentage of .912 for the season is well above the league average. Since February 1, he’s an incredibly good .930 in 23 starts.
- The Rangers still have some small issues in 5v5 games, but they are better than they have been in recent years. Their real danger comes on the power play where they have the third-best power play rate in the league at 26.4 percent.
- Only two Presidents’ Trophy winners have won the Stanley Cup in the salary cap era (since 2005-2006) and none since the 2012-2013 Chicago Blackhawks. At some point this drought will end.
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Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets — Game 1
How to watch: 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2, SN
Key takeaways
- Whatever flaws the Winnipeg Jets have, they are hidden by starting goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. He ranks top five in goals against average, save percentage and shutouts while playing in over 60 games each year.
- Whatever strengths the Colorado Avalanche have, they risk being wiped out by their goaltending. Their team save percentage of .902 is third-worst among playoff teams. They’ve overcome questionable goaltending before to win a Stanley Cup, but it’s never been this bad in the 2021-22 season.
- It’s a true battle of strengths as the Avalanche enter the series as the league’s highest scoring team (3.68 goals per game) while the Jets are tied for the best average of league goals allowed (2.41 goals allowed per game).
- The Jets not only swept the regular season series by winning all three games, but they also won those games by a combined margin of 17-4 on the scoreboard.
- The Avalanche have three of the NHL’s top 17 point producers this season, with Nathan MacKinnon (second), Mikko Rantanen (eighth) and Cale Makar (17th) among the league leaders. Mark Scheifele is the only Jets player in the top 50, and he is 49th.
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Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks – Game 1
How to watch: 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2, SN
Key takeaways
- The Predators are playing their best hockey at the right time of the season, going 20-5-3 in their last 28 playoff games. They’ve only faced 10 teams in the playoffs during this stretch, but have gone 6-3-1 against them.
- Nashville guard Juuse Saros has had a rough year by his standards, but he’s still very capable of heating up and putting the team on his back. He has a .912 save percentage during the Predators’ late-season surge.
- The Canucks roster is full of impact players at the top (Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, JT Miller, Brock Boeser), but their most important player is goaltender Thatcher Demko. Getting a fully healthy and productive version of him this season is arguably the most important factor in their turnaround in the standings.
- The Predators ended up signing two of the best free agent signings of the offseason: Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist. The two provided solid offense (combining for 49 goals between them; 23 for Nyquist and 26 for O’Reilly) while O’Reilly gave them a legitimate two-way center. He’s the type of player who can make a big impact in the playoffs.
- Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes has seen his offense gradually improve each year he has been in the league. His 17 goals this season are eight more than he has ever scored in an NHL season, while his 92 points led all NHL defensemen.
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(Photo by Alexandre Ovechkin: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)