From a purely subjective point of view, the Dallas Stars-Vegas Golden Knights series was one of the best hockey series in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in terms of pace of play, quality of play and competitiveness. Not only will it be a Game 7 on Sunday night, but the two teams were separated by just one goal in total.
Friday night’s Game 6, which Vegas won to force Game 7, was one of the most frantic and chaotic 1-0 games (2-0 with an empty net) you’ll ever see at the league level. NHL.
This all makes sense when you consider that these are two of the best teams in the league on paper. Dallas is as deep as any team in the league with high-end talent at the top of the roster, while Vegas is the defending Stanley Cup champion and is finally healthy after bringing Mark Stone back into the lineup. roster and loaded at the trade deadline. Both teams should be among the top three or four favorites to win it all this season, but only one of them will have the opportunity to advance to the second round.
What’s fascinating about this series so far is that even though it has been as close and as even as it appears on the scoreboard, there is strong evidence to suggest that Dallas wins the major part of the game, especially at even strength. . The Stars are averaging 2.91 expected goals per 60 minutes (second best in the playoffs) and have controlled over 57 percent of the total expected goals (also second best in the playoffs). They also do it against one of the best teams in the league.
There are, however, two important things to keep in mind when it comes to a winner-takes-all game.
The first is that Vegas has exceptional goaltending in the series to prevent the Stars from turning those chances into goals, while Vegas has slowly started to turn things around a bit over the last two games. Games 5 and 6 of the series were the first two where Vegas had the best expected goal share, topping 55 percent in both games.
Both teams have reason to believe they not only could win this game, but maybe should win it, and both are among the best teams in hockey. This will set the stage for what could be an epic series-deciding game.
Here is a preview of this Game 7 and the first game of the series between the New York Rangers and the Carolina Hurricanes.
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Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers — Game 1
How to watch: 4 p.m. ET on ESPN, SN
Series odds: Hurricanes -155, Rangers +130
- The Hurricanes allowed just four goals to the Rangers in the three regular season meetings and actually held a 7-4 goal advantage in head-to-head games. But the Rangers won two of the three games by margins of 2-1 and 1-0.
- Carolina has the much more dominant 5-on-5 numbers during the regular season and in the first round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes, however, tend to underperform those numbers, while the Rangers consistently outperform theirs. The Hurricanes are first in the NHL in playoff shot attempt share and fourth in expected goal share. They finished first and second in the NHL during the regular season. The Rangers are 11th and 14th in the playoffs and 19th and 22nd in the regular season. (Numbers via Natural Stat Trick)
- The Rangers need to get to the power play because it’s one of their two big advantages in any game. Their power play was third best in the NHL during the regular season at 26.4 percent, while it was even more effective in the playoffs at 37.5 percent.
- Since February 1, Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin is 21-5-1 in 27 starts with a .930 save percentage. This will hide many flaws and help them outperform their analytics. This is also the other big advantage of the Rangers.
- Seth Jarvis has been the Hurricanes’ big star this season, and after scoring 33 goals in the regular season (second on the team), he has a season-high seven points (three goals and four assists) heading into the second round.
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Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars — Game 7
How to watch: 7:30 p.m. ET on TBS, SN
Series tied 3-3
- The goalkeepers especially dominated the day here. The three goalies in attendance (Dallas’ Jake Oettinger, Vegas’ Adin Hill and Logan Thompson) all have a save percentage above .920 in the series.
- The Stars are essentially playing this series with just five defensemen, as Nils Lundkvist has logged just 29 total minutes in six games, or about 4:46 per game. This placed a heavy workload on the Stars’ top pair, where Miro Heiskanen played 27:36 per game.
- Power plays probably won’t play a huge role in this matchup, not only because whistles tend to get filed away in Game 7s, but also because there were only 24 power plays in total in during the first six games of the series. This was one of the least penalized series of the first round.
- That said, both power plays were very successful when on the ice, with Vegas converting on 27.3 percent of its opportunities, and Dallas converting on 30.8 percent of its opportunities. Both units are efficient. They may not have many chances on Sunday.
- In NHL Game 7 history, home teams win about 58 percent of the time, while the team that scores first wins 75 percent of the time (including a 4-0 record in the playoffs). 2023-24 Stanley Cup Playoffs).
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(Photo by Jack Eichel and Miro Heiskanen: Ethan Miller/Getty Images)