Weekend duffers may still be celebrating Peter Malnati’s victory in a PGA Tour event while wearing a bucket hat and playing with a yellow ball. But this weekend, the PGA Tour leaves Florida and heads to Houston for the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
The Houston Open is back on the Tour schedule after skipping 2023 and being pushed back to March. Players will be greeted by fantastic weather and a city ready for a great week of sports, with the New York Yankees in town for a four-game series against the Houston Astros.
DraftKings ultimately decided to push Scottie Scheffler to $13,000 as the most expensive player this week. I think the price is justified now that Scottie has switched to the mallet putter and has become dominant in all areas. Added players in the $5,000-$6,000 range make creating GPP lineups a guessing game if you don’t have access to all the stats from other golf tours.
This week’s model emphasizes driving distance and reduces last week’s driving precision. I also target players who gain approach shots over 200 yards and over 225 yards. I weigh the putting stats a little heavier than normal, with avoiding 3 putts and putting beyond 25 feet being key. I also weigh the par 3 with a slightly higher than average score.
Course information
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course – Houston, Texas
Conceived by: John Bredemus, recently redesigned by Tom Doak
By: 70
Footage: 7,412 yards
Average green size: 7,000 square feet
Features: Large, rolling Bermuda greens highlight this municipal golf course. Three-putt avoidance and putt length have become more important statistics than in recent weeks. The rough should not be a factor as it is only an inch and a quarter.
Past champions: Tony Finau 2022, Jason Kokrak 2021, Carlos Ortiz 2020, Lanto Griffin 2019, Ian Poulter 2018, Russell Henley 2017
The chances are PariMGM and live update.
Bet slip
Sahith Theegala +2000 comes into this week with back-to-back top-nine finishes at key Florida swing events. He gained more than 3.8 strokes on approach at the Players Championship after struggling a bit with his irons since the Phoenix Open. He finished 22nd here in 2022, which is a big improvement from his 61st place finish in 2021. He will continue that trend and should be in the pack on Sunday.
Jason Day +2500 is still a long way off the tee, even if his accuracy numbers have suffered. This doesn’t concern me much this week, as I’m targeting him because of his putting stats and ability on the green. He played his entire match in the first round of the Players Championship, but struggled with his irons the rest of the week. He finishes 16th and seventh here and will play at Memorial Park for the fourth consecutive time.
Sleepers
Kurt Kitayama +5500 bounced back from missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational by winning over 2.5 strokes off the tee and over 3.4 strokes on approach at the Players Championship. He has won with his putter in three of his last four and his price is in an attractive range for his potential.
Billy Horschel +6000 has won three tournaments in a row with the driver and has won more than 3 approach shots in two of his last three tournaments. He has won with his putter in six of seven tournaments and seems to have a decent stride.
DFS
Scottie Scheffler $13,000 What is there to say? He won back-to-back showpiece events against elite fields, earning shots across the board. In each event, he held more than 33 percent of the GPP. I want to make it go away, but it’s hard to find a reason. You can only highlight his performance here.
Wyndham Clark $10,900 has lost to a golfer in each of his last two tournaments, and that golfer is in the field this week. Clark is once again able to control his fade off the tee and has won over 9 approach shots combined in his last two tournaments. He also won nearly 11 combined strokes with his putter during those same tournaments.
Sahith Theegala $10,300 See above.
Will Zalatoris $10,100 struggled with his short, off-the-tee game at The Players Championship and recency bias could cut into his ownership a bit after that missed cut. He still gained more than 2.5 strokes on approach. He could be the key to victory this week if his participation is lower than it should be.
Tony Finau$9,900 He may have fixed his putter as he gained strokes in three straight matches, but he lost more than 1.7 strokes off the tee in two straight tournaments. His results have been poor this year so I don’t see the need to enter him even if he is the 2022 defending champion.
Si Woo Kim $9,700 consistently wins shots off the tee and on approach every time he throws the shot. His putting let him down at times, but he was successful at the Players Championship, leading to a T6. But with its putting volatility, its price is a little high in my opinion.
Jason Day $9,500 See above.
Alex Noren9 $400 gained strokes across the board in two consecutive tournaments, leading to two consecutive top-19 finishes. Its earnings aren’t huge, and it always burns me when it’s expensive and heavily held. Not this time Alex!
Keith Mitchell $9,200 won over 9 strokes on approach at Valspar, but that’s not what anyone is going to focus on after his horrible round on Sunday. His short game is killing him and now his price is a little high.
Stéphane Jaeger $8,900 struggled on the Florida swing after starting the year strong. His putter went cold, losing more than 7.5 strokes combined in three tournaments on the Florida swing. He has a nice track record here, but we should avoid him at this high price.
Billy Horschel $8,300 See above.
Doug pin $8,200 made six straight cuts, but ultimately struggled with his irons at the Valspar, leading to his lowest finish of that race. What was even more worrying was that he lost almost four shots with his short game.
Kurt Kityama8 $100 See above.
Jake Knapp $8,000 will be happy to see less water on the tee this week. You have to love its edge at this price.
Mackenzie Hughes$7,800 won approach shots in three straight tournaments and finally got angry with the putter by winning 9+ strokes at the Valspar. He has a great course history here, so I don’t mind listing him even if his price is higher than it has been since the Mexican Open.
Akshay Bhatia $7,500 won shots across the board at Valspar. He has won strokes off the tee in nine consecutive tournaments.
KH Lee $7,400 gained strokes off the tee in three consecutive tournaments and gained strokes with his putter in seven consecutive tournaments. He has two top-nine finishes in his last three tournaments and has a lot of upside for this price range.
Thomas Détry $7,400 has been hot with his putter lately, winning over 6.2 strokes combined over his last two tournaments. He won almost everywhere at Valspar, losing only a little around the green.
Joël Dahmen $7,100 has made three straight cuts and won more than 13.3 combined approach shots in his last two tournaments. He has struggled with his putter, losing more than 3 strokes on the greens in his last three measured events. He’ll have to find his stroke to help your GPP teams, but he has two straight top-9 finishes here.
Andrew Novak $6,900 has four top-17 finishes in his last five events. He bounced back from a missed cut at the Players Championship by winning more than 5 shots on approach at Valspar. He has won more than 1.3 strokes with his short game in six consecutive events.
Carl Yuan $6,400 won shots across the board at Valspar. He picked up over 3 shots on approach, the most he’s won since Rocket Mortgage last year. He is unstable when it comes to qualifying.
Dylan Wu6 $100 has gained over 7.7 approach strokes in his last two tournaments while gaining over 5 combined strokes with the putter in the same amount of time.
$5,600 from Jhonattan Vegas the price looks like a cheap version of Cameron Champ this week. His short game has been poor lately, but he has the experience to bounce back at a moment’s notice. In his last three tournaments, he has won more than 7 strokes combined on approach.
Sam Bennett $5,600 makes his PGA Tour debut in 2024. He has had four of his five Korn Ferry Tour starts with a top 10 finish.
Coach Martin $5,300 let his putter take him into the top 20 at the Mexican Open and then finished T5 at the Argentina Open on the Korn Ferry Tour. He bounced back from missing the cut in Puerto Rico by finishing fifth in Macau. He accumulates frequent flyer miles and plays decent golf.
Cole Hammer $5,100 has won more than 4 strokes on the field in four consecutive Korn Ferry Tour events. The Houston native has plenty of upside in his game and finished T27 here in 2022, winning over 5.8 strokes on approach.
Kris Ventura$5,000 finished second at the Argentine Open and has made six of his last eight cuts on the Korn Ferry Tour.
One and done
Each week we will make a selection in reverse order of ranking and we cannot duplicate selections in the same week. Reference this followed by a spreadsheet which we used.
Ranking
Brody Miller: $5,672,857.83
Hugh Kellenberger: $3,269,440.80
Dennis Esser: $1,645,017
Dennis Esser: Sam Burns took me out of the survivor pool of my one and that’s it last week. I need a good week and I have already used Sahith Theegala, who is my favorite player this week. I decided to take Wyndham Clark and I hope it can maintain its beautiful shape.
Clark is dealing with a back injury that was revealed in his pre-tournament press conference, so I’m switching gears and moving on Jason Day.
Brody Miller: Ultimately, I don’t want to use big fish during a weird week in Houston, and Keith Mitchell is also having the best ball-striking season of his career, leading to a string of four top-20 finishes in his last five events. The one he didn’t finish that high? The Players, where he was actually in the mix at the start of the weekend. I know his Sunday at Valspar was a disaster, but that doesn’t change the general trend.
Hugh Kellenberger: As Brody said, it’s a strange event to choose because the field isn’t very strong. We also haven’t seen the course since 2022, and that was in the fall then. I will take Si Woo Kim, who has already hidden in the rankings several times this season. It also just took a break, so it should be refreshed.
(Photo by Jason Day: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)