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The Athletic covers the entire league live on MLB Opening Day.
Dodgers catcher Will Smith set a record with his new extension, the Yankees were part of a three-way trade, we preview the Cleveland Guardians and Ken talks to you about the process of putting together a very in-depth analysis of Dodgers offseason. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Opening Day edition of The Windup!
Ken’s notebook: Start the season with a fun story
The story I co-wrote with Fabian Ardaya about the Los Angeles Dodgers’ $1.4 billion offseason is one of my all-time favorites. It was great to trace every move, not only from the Dodgers’ perspective, but from the other clubs’ perspectives as well. It was also a lot of fun talking to country music star Brad Paisley and TV actor Brian Baumgartner, who both had small roles in the drama.
Fabian and I started working on the story months ago. The idea was to publish it Opening Day. But something happened in the meantime: the Dodgers’ firing of Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, whom Ohtani’s lawyers accused of participating in a “massive theft” from the superstar of $700 million. dollars to pay off his gambling debts.
Our story was all but written when news of Mizuhara’s firing broke on March 20, accompanied by conflicting accounts from the interpreter about what really happened. I won’t speak for Fabian, but just over a week before our publication date, I slipped into a mild panic. Selfishly, I worried that the story, which includes details about the Dodgers’ pursuit of Ohtani, would no longer work.
We decided to monitor how events unfolded and then choose how to proceed. After Ohtani spoke out on Monday, accusing Mizuhara of stealing and lying to him, we decided to move forward while noting the surprising turn of events.
The story is full of fun details about the free agencies of Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as the wild party in Paisley’s Nashville barn that helped accelerate the Dodgers’ efforts to trade for and sign Tyler Glasnow a prolongation. We had to make one final adjustment on Wednesday, incorporating the team’s signing of wide receiver Will Smith to a 10-year, $140 million extension (more on that in a minute). Because of course the Dodgers wanted to spend a little more!
Either way, we hope people enjoy reading the story as much as we enjoyed working on it. Regardless of how one views Ohtani’s current situation, the fact remains: A team might never put together another offseason like the one the Dodgers just had. The twists and turns followed one another, from start to finish.
Learn more about opening day: Twenty-six teams are in action today (Braves/Phillies and Brewers/Mets rained out). Follow our live blog.
Will Smith is here for the long haul in Los Angeles
There was a Will Smith in Hollywood since 1990, and now it looks like this streak will continue for at least 10 years – as Ken just mentioned, the Dodgers announced yesterday that they have extended their catcher. This is the longest contract ever given to a catcher, surpassing Buster Posey’s nine-year contract.
It is also the third-the biggest contract never awarded to a receiver, behind Posey ($167 million) and Joe Mauer (eight years, $184 million). As part of the $140 million, Smith will receive a $30 million signing bonus, which will be paid out over the next two years.
The deal – unsurprisingly, it involves the Dodgers – also involves a sizable amount of deferred money. Smith will receive $5 million per year from 2034 to 2043, meaning he will be 48 years old when the Dodgers finish paying him. The Dodgers now owe $915.5 million in deferred money from 2028 to 2043 (including $68 million per year to Shohei Ohtani within 10 years of his contract expiring). The story linked above explains their reasoning in more detail, but the short version is that it saves them money on the competitive balance tax. These dollars do not count towards their payroll for 2024.
Economy aside, this move keeps the Dodgers quiet for quite a while when it comes to the catcher position. Smith is one of the most successful catchers in the league and will now, health permitting, be a solid battery mate for the Dodgers’ current and future rotations.
WAR by Catchers (2020-2023)
Player | war | GUERREB | AVERAGE |
---|---|---|---|
JT Realmuto |
14.2 |
15 |
14.6 |
Will Smith |
14.2 |
13.2 |
13.7 |
Sean Murphy |
14.1 |
11.4 |
12:75 p.m. |
Willson Contreras |
9.6 |
12.3 |
10.95 |
Adley Rutschman* |
10.5 |
9.7 |
10.1 |
*Rutschman debuted in 2022
Yankees trade for Berti, address 3B need
Leave it to the day before opening day to put the “action” into the “deal.” As 26-man rosters were being finalized, a number of players found themselves heading to a different team than the one they had just spent spring training with.
Among them: Jon Berti, who was traded from the Marlins to the Yankees in a three-way deal that sent catcher Ben Rortvedt to the Tampa Bay Rays, outfield prospect John Cruz to the Marlins and was finished with the Rays sending outfield prospect Shane. Sasaki across the state to join the Fish.
The exchange became necessary when third baseman DJ LeMahieu fouled his right foot, causing a bone bruise. The Yankees have already lost one Gerrit Cole, and although Aaron Judge’s abdominal injury only kept him out for about a week, the loss of LeMahieu must have put Yankees fans (and the front office) to sleep. as if they were drinking a cold drink at 10 o’clock. p.m.
What to do when you can’t sleep?
Berti is not a bad pickup for the Yankees. He hit .294 (but with just a .748 OPS) last year, and in 2022 he led the league with 41 stolen bases. That — along with his ability to play all over the infield and outfield — should make the Yankees better. Not only did they finish 21st in baseball with 100 stolen bases last year, but they needed a super-utility player, which Berti likely will be when LeMahieu returns.
Goalkeepers still need more offense
ZiPS projected recording: 85-77
Record 2023: 76-86
Sorry for leaving Guardians to the last minute; they were originally scheduled for last week but perhaps you heard: the union was in full revolt and Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter said no-no. So let’s go ! Our final look at the team, and just in time for opening day.
Over the past eight full MLB seasons since the league has made progress adjustments to the ballonly four teams have hit fewer home runs than the 124 hit by the Cleveland Guardians in 2023. The second-worst team last year was the Nationals, with 151. Only three teams (Tigers, White Sox and A’s) have hit fewer than points.
So what did the Guardians do to address the lack of offensive firepower in their first post-Terry-Francona offseason?
Uhhh, they added Estevan Florial and Austin Hedges.
José Ramírez is still one of the best in the game, and Josh Naylor hit 20 home runs as recently as 2022, but there’s not much after that to inspire fear in opposing pitchers unless They don’t mind a lot of contact and good at-bats. Maybe a change in philosophy will change that, but this is not a team of bangers. So why is ZiPS projecting them for a tie atop the AL Central?
It’s the pitch.
The rotation – Shane Bieber, a healthy Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco back replacing injured Gavin Williams – is solid. The bullpen features perhaps the best closer in baseball, and enough extra arms to feel reasonably good…once they’re all healthy. Xzavion Curry and Ben Lively are late due to virus, while Sam Hentges (finger), Trevor Stephan (elbow surgery) and James Karinchak (shoulder strain) have varying ETAs from active roster .
It’s hard enough to win every game 2-1 when your entire staff is healthy. NOW? The AL Central is a pretty soft division, but I still don’t see the Guardians contending unless they find a way to hit a little more.
You should also read this great work by Zack Meisel on new manager Stephen Vogt.
Key departures: MGR Terry Francona, OF Kole Calhoun, RHP Enyel De Los Santos, C Cam Gallagher, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Reynaldo López, RHP Cody Morris, RHP Zach Plesac, RHP Cal Quantrill
Key arrivals: MGR Stephen Vogt, RHP Scott Barlow, RHP Carlos Carrasco, OF Estevan Florial, C Austin Hedges, RHP Ben Lively
The prospects corner: Despite a tough year on the farm due to graduations and injuries, the Guardians still have a pretty solid top five, says Keith Law, including No. 1 Brayan Rocchio, who made the all-day team. ‘opening.
Handshakes and High Fives
MLB owners have voted to approve David Rubenstein as the new owner of the Baltimore Orioles. Britt Ghiroli interviewed the new owner exclusively for Athleticism.
Meanwhile, Sam Blum spoke with Angels general manager Perry Minasian and asked him some tough questions.
More predictions: Our team makes (sometimes shockingly accurate) predictions for the 2024 season, and the editors throw us under the bus by looking at our predictions for 2023. Meanwhile, Eno Sarris gives us 10 more predictions and Jim Bowden predicts the winners. Not enough? What about the ratings, odds and analysis for all 30 teams?
OK, one more time: what about the top 100 players, filtered by tiers?
This is C. Trent Rosecrans on Elly De La Cruz, of course it goes in the links section.
Much has been made of new Cubs manager Craig Counsell’s ties to Milwaukee and the Brewers. But as Patrick Mooney points out, Counsell was no stranger to Chicago either.
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(Top photo of Mookie Betts on Opening Day 2023: Harry How/Getty Images)