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“Why the hell would you want to leave this team?”
Christian Horner is right. Max Verstappen is already on his way to a fourth world championship. His victory at the Chinese Grand Prix, the fourth of the four GPs he has completed this season, was never in doubt. His average margin of victory this season has been 15.5 seconds.
Three-quarters of the way to 2024, it is difficult to foresee a situation in which Verstappen’s crown is not wrapped up with a handful of races remaining. Ferrari is not yet close enough to mount a season-long challenge, nor is McLaren. Mercedes is far behind. In the other Red Bull, Sergio Pérez is not at Verstappen’s level and, unlike last year, he does not seem to think he can challenge for the title.
Never have the races been so decided before their start. Verstappen takes pole, Verstappen stays in the lead, Verstappen wins and we try to get excited about the battle for second place. Rinse, repeat. This is as impressive as it is regrettable for those who want a more competitive F1.
That’s not a bad thing if you’re Max Verstappen, of course, who knows that as long as Red Bull remains the dominant team, the wins and records will keep coming. As he said in Abu Dhabi last year after capping his record-breaking season with a 19th victory: “Winning is great. Why wouldn’t I want to win?
Which brings us back to the rhetorical question asked by his team principal hours after the race in China: why on earth would he want to leave?
In a ‘silly season’ of the drivers’ market that has been thrown into a frenzy by Lewis Hamilton’s shock move to Ferrari for 2025, the pieces have only just started to fall into place. Much of this revolves around who Mercedes signs to replace Hamilton next year.
After the race in China, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff again discussed the possibility of moving Verstappen away from Red Bull. He had just seen his drivers limp home in sixth and ninth places, continuing what has been a truly miserable start to the year for Mercedes. At one point, Hamilton reported on the radio that he was struggling to catch the Alpine of Esteban Ocon, which is not the kind of comparison you could use to sell your team on a driver of the caliber or the success of Verstappen.
But Wolff said he didn’t think having the fastest car was the only reason a driver would choose to stay with a team. “For simple minds, this might be the only reason you stay in a car, and that’s it,” Wolff said. “But maybe there’s more depth in other people who also take other factors into account, and I think Max has more depth.”
As Horner points out whenever this topic comes up, Verstappen has a contract in place at Red Bull until 2028. When the deal was agreed following his first F1 title at the end of 2021, he s It was the longest agreement in F1. history and one of the most lucrative.
Horner, understandably, was not impressed by Wolff’s comments. He pointed out that Mercedes lacked the pace of two of its engine clients, McLaren and Aston Martin, in China, and said Wolff’s time “would perhaps be better spent focusing on the team rather than on the pilot market. The rivalry between the two who shined the brightest throughout 2021 has never died down. It will probably never go out. Questions over Verstappen’s future are just the latest battleground, although for Horner there is no doubt about where his star driver will go next year.
And this is true, as long as the peace of recent races can be maintained at Red Bull.
In Japan, following Fernando Alonso’s assessment there was “no chance” of Verstappen leaving, the Dutchman said he was “very happy where I am.” And yes, we want to keep it that way. There is one caveat: I need to be happy.
Through the early season turbulence at Red Bull, amid the investigation into Horner, who faced allegations of inappropriate behavior that he vigorously denied, and the power struggle that followed, Verstappen stressed the need for a peaceful environment. This turbulence culminated when the position of Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko was called into question; Verstappen indicated that without Marko he would leave the team. The next day, after Marko held talks with Red Bull chief executive Oliver Mintzlaff, peace was restored.
Following the dismissal of the complaint against Horner, the Red Bull team boss said it was time for F1 to “move on” and draw a line under the matter. Given that the plaintiff has since appealed the decision, the topic will continue to resurface in the coming months. Any further push in the power struggle at Red Bull, which has calmed considerably over the past three races, could risk shattering the peace Verstappen has always maintained he needs.
The fact that Mercedes is in no rush to make a decision works in Wolff’s favor. He has always made it clear that he wants time to assess how Mercedes protégé Andrea Kimi Antonelli is performing with his private testing program in F1 – which began last week in Austria – and F2 this year. The longer this assessment takes, the more the door remains open in case Verstappen seriously seeks to leave Red Bull.
There is not much to lose for Mercedes. Unless he fears missing out on a shorter-term option, like Carlos Sainz, who really can’t make a much stronger case for a seat anywhere right now current, then he can afford to take his time.
Whoever he chooses can expect a tough 2025, given Mercedes’ continued struggles under these regulations. Only in 2026, when the new rules are introduced, will there again be the possibility of realistically fighting for a championship. But if Mercedes takes the lead with its engines as it did at the start of the V6 hybrid era in 2014, which marked the start of its record streak of eighth constructors’ titles, it could once again be the team that will be up to the task.
It’s all a question of timing. And until Mercedes pulls the trigger on a decision, expect this “gently” pursuit of Verstappen – and the continued back-and-forth between Wolff and Horner – to continue.
Another subplot in a silly season that has already proven anything is possible.
(Toto Wolff main photo: Bryn Lennon – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)