It all comes down to this for Real Madrid.
After a 3-3 draw against Manchester City in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final at the Santiago Bernabeu, Carlo Ancelotti’s side travel to the Etihad Stadium with the last four in their sights. Win, and they’ll look to add to their record 14 titles in the competition; lose, and it will be a big blow, even if they are on course to win La Liga this season for the 36th time.
So, will Eder Militao be back to strengthen Madrid’s defense? Will Jude Bellingham silence those who questioned his performance in last week’s reverse match? Our Real Madrid writers Guillermo Rai and Mario Cortegana explore the key questions.
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Guillermo Rai: I’m at Madrid’s Barajas airport, waiting for a flight to Manchester. Around 3,000 Real Madrid fans are expected to support Ancelotti’s side at the Etihad.
Mario Cortegana: I had the same experience last year, for the semi-final second leg, but it’s probably best not to think about what happened next.
Aurélien Tchouameni will be traveling with the team, even if he will not be able to play due to his suspension (he received his third yellow card of the competition in the first leg). Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba remain in Madrid to continue recovering from their injuries, although they want to support their teammates in Manchester.
Tchouameni scored a long-range winner against Mallorca this weekend, so how do you think his absence could affect things?
Rai: Much more than we thought before Saturday’s match.
I thought Militao would be available against Mallorca after recovering from an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury (he had been out since last August), but he didn’t come on until the 90th minute. I understand that the Brazilian will not be able to start against City with so little playing time since his return, which will impact Madrid in defensive transitions.
Unless there is a surprise, Ancelotti will be forced to turn to Nacho. The club captain had a good performance in Mallorca and made a goal-saving intervention, but Ancelotti does not have much confidence in him.
Cortegana: Militao’s limited involvement surprised some, given that Spanish media had reported he would start.
Club sources – who, like everyone we speak to here, will remain anonymous to protect relationships – have told me that Militao will not start at the Etihad. This makes sense, given he lacks the competitive pace for such a demanding match (his only other appearance since his return was another 90th-minute introduction, against Athletic Bilbao, last month).
Unless this is a strategy to surprise City, this means the central partnership will consist of Antonio Rudiger and Nacho, with Dani Carvajal and Ferland Mendy at right-back and left-back .
Rai: In last year’s semi-final second leg in Manchester, Ancelotti took the risk of playing Eduardo Camavinga at left-back when the Frenchman was injured – this affected the team as he was not 100 percent. But Carvajal and Mendy are in great shape and played well in the first leg. Additionally, the last time City lost at home in the Champions League was September 2018… when Mendy started in a 2-1 win for his then club Lyon.
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Cortegana: Another thing Ancelotti got wrong in that 4-0 defeat last year was the central defender duo. Rudiger was in better form than Alaba but the Austrian started, alongside Militao. Rudiger has impressed in Madrid’s last two matches against City and has relished his battle with Erling Haaland. The Norwegian failed to score in these three matches, but it’s hard to imagine him without a goal after four matches of this importance.
Another key player in this sense will be goalkeeper Andriy Lunin.
He recovered from his mistake at the start of the first leg, letting in Bernardo Silva’s free kick in the second minute, but he is not used to this kind of stage.
Rai: No changes are expected in midfield from the first leg – when Camavinga and Toni Kroos played holding roles in Madrid’s 4-4-2 system, with Federico Valverde and Bellingham dropping back as wide midfielders when the team was defending.
City started with two deeper midfielders, Rodri and Mateo Kovacic, when they usually set up with just one. According to Ancelotti’s coaching staff, this meant Madrid were not totally overwhelmed between the lines.
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They have also had success in attack, with Rodrygo drifting to the left, Vinicius Junior moving to the center and Bellingham acting as playmaker. Expect this system to repeat itself on Wednesday.
Cortegana: Rodrygo playing on the left was the big news of the first leg and I have a feeling Ancelotti will do the same as the various sources from Madrid’s Valdebebas training ground that I spoke with all highlighted what you mentioned : their satisfaction the approach go.
Ancelotti asked his players to show courage and bravery ahead of this match, and the Italian believes that resonated in the dressing room. Madrid came face to face with City, something that didn’t happen during last May’s debacle at the Etihad.
Rodrygo also appears to be in better form than Bellingham, although club members aren’t worried about the Englishman’s performances.
Rai: There’s a quote from Ancelotti that sums up how Madrid views Bellingham’s situation. When asked if the midfield’s levels had dropped in the first leg of the quarter-finals in the same way that happened with Paris Saint-Germain’s Kylian Mbappe or Haaland, he issued a warning.
“Calm down, calm down,” Ancelotti said. “It could be that in the first leg they didn’t play their best football, but now there are other games to come… Be careful.”
Cortegana: Those at Valdebebas admit that Bellingham is playing a little less compared to the start of the season, but they are not worried and highlighted the importance of his work off the ball against City.
Wednesday’s game is exactly the kind he was signed for: a Champions League knockout match, in his home country, against a team that was Madrid’s biggest rival for his signature in the summer last.
Ancelotti came out stronger from the first leg. Although City have some notable absentees, it is not easy to surprise Pep Guardiola or play with that confidence against the reigning European champions. But the Etihad is an imposing venue and the Madrid coach cannot afford to relax.
Another defeat like last year would cause Ancelotti a lot of pain, although I don’t think it would change the club’s plans for the future at all.
Rai: Ancelotti was brave in the first leg and the only thing he could be criticized for was his changes, which were arguably too conservative – he removed Rodrygo instead of Bellingham or Vinicius Jr, who both looked more tired.
Another drubbing like last year’s is unthinkable but, as you say, this match won’t decide Ancelotti’s future: Madrid are eight points ahead of Barcelona at the top of La Liga, and let’s not forget that the Italian accepted a contract extension until 2026 in December.
Cortegana: As we have already reported, club members say they plan for the medium and long term, without getting carried away by the immediacy of results.
La Liga is almost over and Ancelotti’s side also won the Spanish Super Cup (the Spanish equivalent of the English Community Shield) in January, beating Atletico Madrid in the semi-final and beating Barca in the final.
Rai: But beating City at the Etihad would be a big statement, given they’ve never won at this ground – there’s a first time for everything.
(Top photos: Getty Images)