Julian Nagelsmann called his contract extension with the DFB a “decision of the heart”.
In the DFB press release on Friday morning, which announced he would remain Germany coach until after the 2026 World Cup, the 36-year-old said he had been “touched by the “euphoria of the supporters” during and after the two friendly victories against France. and in the Netherlands in March.
It’s understandable. These consecutive victories have radically changed the atmosphere.
From a team without direction and distant from its audience, Germany suddenly has a goal and an identity. Nagelsmann brought a complex attacking football recognizable from his time at RB Leipzig, and a selection policy that rewarded form rather than reputation. After dreading Euro 2024 and fearing embarrassment at their own tournament, the Germans are now quietly optimistic.
This is the context of this decision. Not that it’s necessarily simple, nor that it’s the only option available to Nagelsmann. It was no secret that Bayern Munich were working to bring him back to Saebener Strasse after identifying him as their leading candidate to succeed Thomas Tuchel this summer.
Nagelsmann was fired by Bayern in March 2023, with the team trailing Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga and the quarter-finals of the Champions League and DFB-Pokal, the German Cup. He was immediately replaced by Tuchel, whose stay at the club was even more difficult.
Despite signing Harry Kane from Tottenham Hotspur for a German record fee of €100 million (£86 million; $106.5 million), Bayern failed to defend their league title for the first time in 12 years. They reached the Champions League semi-final for the first time since 2020, but Tuchel’s only full season in charge was marred by inconsistency, marked by scathing media criticism and punctuated by public debates on recruitment.
Succeeding his own successor must have been tempting for Nagelsmann. There is also no doubt that Bayern’s offer would have been the most lucrative. Tuchel would receive 10 million euros plus bonuses per season. Nagelsmann earns just under half that amount at the DFB.
Bayern have also reorganized their technical departments since March 2023. Oliver Kahn and Hasan Salihamidzic, former CEO and sporting director respectively, were involved in the decision to hire and release Nagelsmann, and both have now left the club.
And yet, the delicate dynamic was still there. As do doubts about the extent of Nagelsmann’s support at board level.
Max Eberl, member of the sports board, and Christoph Freund, the new sports director, were united in wanting Nagelsmann. Reports in Munich, however, suggest that Karl-Heinz Rummenigge and Uli Hoeness, the club’s highly influential former players, were not entirely sold on the idea, having witnessed some of the manager’s problems at Munich.
As a source close to the German FA – who, like all sources for this article, was granted anonymity to protect his relationships – suggests, Nagelsmann had an additional reason to reject a return. Bayern need a radical overhaul of their squad and that will likely affect the players they coach this summer at Euro 2024. Nagelsmann, according to the source, was unsure whether it would have been possible to do both. Each of his decisions with Germany would have had repercussions on his work with Bayern from July onwards.
At the very least, it would have been an endless source of media speculation and constant distraction.
It could even have been a political problem. Nagelsmann was able to revive some interest in the national team partly thanks to his selection policy. Leon Goretzka, for example, was left out of the squad for the matches against France and the Netherlands, demonstrating the kind of tension Nagelsmann could have found himself in at Bayern.
In this case, Goretzka’s teammate, 19-year-old Aleksandar Pavlovic, was preferred. It was exactly the kind of uncomfortable mechanic that could have destabilized any second reign.
Maybe it’s a question of timing. Either way, it’s definitely the best time to coach the German national team. Back-to-back group stage eliminations from the 2018 and 2022 World Cups damaged the country’s footballing ego, but the relationship between fans and team had been in decline for much longer – since the Cup victory of the world in 2014.
The poor results multiplied the bad intentions generated by the perception of excessive branding of the team, a series of tax scandals with the DFB and a succession of tone-deaf moments, illustrated by the saga of the One Love armbands during the World Cup in Qatar.
Around 25.9 million Germans watched their country’s first match at the 2018 World Cup. For an equivalent match in 2022, that audience had fallen to less than 10 million.
By the time Hansi Flick was fired in September 2023, Germany had suffered further humiliating results, with defeats against Poland, Colombia, Belgium and Japan. When Nagelsmann was initially appointed, initially for the end of Euro 2024, it really felt like things couldn’t get worse.
Strange as it may seem, the German post did not raise so many expectations. Not then, at least.
At first, there was little improvement – and perhaps this is where it is wise to err on the side of caution. The “supporter euphoria” Nagelsmann refers to in his statement is recent and based solely on the results against the French and Dutch.
But there have been significant positives. The use of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz as a No. 10 tandem was one. The beginnings of Maximilian Mittelstadt were another. The return of Toni Kroos was an obvious third. But it wasn’t that long ago that Nagelsmann’s Germany was outclassed by Turkey in Berlin. Three days after that match in November 2023, they were dominated by Austria in Vienna.
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The atmosphere is certainly better now, but some problems have not gone away. Question marks remain over the defense, which is still porous. Kai Havertz remains an enigma. There is still no recognized or reliable number 9.
There is also no certainty that this will go well.
However, unlike Bayern, Nagelsmann can be sure that the entire DFB hierarchy is united behind him. Having such a young and prestigious coach at the helm of the national team will be considered a coup and a much-needed “victory” for the organization. National team director Rudi Voller, who played a key role in convincing Nagelsmann to stay, said with pride that “the two successful internationals showed how much joy Julian and his team could bring to Germany “.
Nagelsmann, he added, was “an exceptional coach (and) tactical specialist who not only brings great football knowledge, but can also bring every player to life with his passion.”
Time will tell us. However, according to a source close to the DFB, the federation still hedged its bets: it was able to insert a clause limiting its financial exposure in case it wishes to part ways with Nagelsmann if Euro 2024 were to end in disappointment .
Neither the DFB nor Nagelsmann’s representatives responded to requests for comment from Athleticism.
There is certainly no reason to be negative. Germany’s progress may be tenuous, but it remains real. To claim there is excitement ahead of the European Championship would be an exaggeration, but there is certainly anticipation and interest. This is a big improvement. And even though the obstacles and difficulties Nagelsmann faces are significant enough, Germany has shown more progress under his leadership in five months than before in years.
So vote for stability rather than risk. A job that he knows and in which he is assured, rather than a return to a club in transition. Staying at the DFB seems to be a decision of the head and the heart.
(Top photo: Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images)