European football is nearing the end of the season with the three continental semi-final competitions beginning on Tuesday. Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain are favorites to reach the Champions League final, but the field is relatively open at this stage.
Madrid outlasted defending champions Manchester City on penalties in the quarter-finals and inherited first place in the odds of winning the competition. The Merengues are favorites to win the competition at +138 PariMGM, which shows that Madrid is not a dominant favorite. PSG are next at +240 with Bayern Munich at +275 and Borussia Dortmund at +800.
This week, the two semi-finals will take place in Germany. Madrid travel to Munich on Tuesday while PSG travel to Dortmund on Wednesday. The Europa League and Europa Conference League semi-finals all begin on Thursday.
Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid
Chances of moving forward: Madrid -185, Bayern +130
As two of the biggest clubs in the world, these two have regularly faced each other in the Champions League. Most recently, Madrid came out on top in the semi-finals in 2018 and have beaten the Germans in the last three knockout stage encounters (2017 quarter-finals, 2014 semi-finals). Bayern eliminated Madrid in the 2012 semi-finals.
Bayern have been knocked from their place at the top of the Bundesliga but have been strong in the Champions League. This is by no means Bayern’s best team. In fact, it may be one of the worst in recent years. But it is still a talented team which has what it takes on paper to challenge Madrid.
Madrid are on the verge of clinching the La Liga title with just one defeat in the league. The Merengues are undefeated in the Champions League, but the round of 16 was close. After a 6-0 group performance, RB Leipzig worried Madrid fans in a 2-1 round of 16 victory. It then took penalties to beat Manchester City in the quarter-finals.
But among the four teams remaining in the competition, it is clear that Madrid is having the best season. PSG was dominant in France but suffered some defeats in the Champions League. Madrid are aiming for their 15th Champions League title and sixth in the last 11 years.
On the Bayern side, it’s hard not to think of the story of Harry Kane. Kane left Tottenham, where he was unable to win any trophies, to join a Bayern club known for winning trophies. The Champions League is Kane’s last chance to avoid taking part in Bayern’s first trophyless season in more than a decade.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Chances of moving forward: PSG -275, Dortmund +200
This is a rematch of a group game in a nasty group that also included Milan and Newcastle. Dortmund won the group while PSG only got goal differential ahead of Milan.
Despite the way the group ended, PSG won the head-to-head. The Parisians won 2-0 at home and drew 1-1 in Germany, even though Dortmund had already clinched a place in the round of 16.
Dortmund have not had a good season in the Bundesliga, sitting fifth in the table. At this point, it would take a Champions League trophy or Germany securing one of the extra places in next year’s Champions League (which seems likely) to return to the competition next season. Despite this, Dortmund are still here, surviving a tough group and coming back twice against Atlético Madrid in a crazy quarter-final second leg.
The Germans are underdogs against PSG, but this PSG team has had its ups and downs in Europe. Even after working hard during group play, PSG ultimately needed a red card in the second leg in Barcelona to come back from a two-goal deficit.
Any team with Kylian Mbappé is a threat and he is also one of the -250 favorites to finish as the competition’s top scorer. Could he face Madrid in the Champions League final and then play for the club next season?
The high goal total suggests this one could be fun. Both teams have scored in eight of PSG’s 11 Champions League matches this season. Dortmund even somehow allowed notoriously defensive Atlético to advance to a quarter-final with nine goals in those two matches.
Europa League Odds
The Europa League has added intrigue this season as Bayer Leverkusen has been one of the best stories in sport. Bayer is having a magical season in many ways. Not only have Bayer already clinched their first ever Bundesliga title and are still undefeated in all competitions, but the team has persisted in scoring late goals to maintain that unbeaten run.
Leverkusen came back from 2-0 down in the two round of 16 matches against Qarabag. In the first leg away, Bayer scored in the 70th and 92nd minutes to come away with a 2-2 draw. In the second leg at home, Bayer trailed 2-0 after the 70th minute but scored in the 72nd, 93rd and 97th minutes. While these returns are perhaps the most impressive of the group, Leverkusen trailed in six of their 13 matches in March and April, but managed to secure nine wins and four draws.
A few weeks after Qarabag’s return, Bayer needed goals in the 88th and 91st minutes to beat Hoffenheim in the league. Bayer scored in the 83rd and 91st minutes of the Europa League quarter-final first leg against West Ham to win 2-0, then used an 89th-minute equalizer in the second leg in London to seal a place in the semi-final. A little over a week ago, it was the equalizer in the 97th minute in Dortmund. Last weekend, Bayer was again 2-0 down and came back for a 2-2 draw against Stuttgart, with the equalizer in the 96th minute.
It’s such a silly race that it makes you wonder if we’re all watching a team controlled by someone play a video game and lower the difficulty mid-game to avoid losing.
This race heavily favored Leverkusen to win the Europa League. The German club have a chance to complete a treble, with the German Cup final still to come.
The opposition is a Roma club who are one of the last to beat Bayer. These two teams also met in the Europa League semi-finals last year, with Roma winning the first leg 1-0 and then suffering a 0-0 draw in Germany in classic Jose Mourinho fashion. Mourinho has left and new manager Daniele De Rossi has the team adopting a more attacking style.
Leverkusen is -400 (1 against 4) to advance with Roma at +275 (11 against 3). In the other semi-final, another Italian club, Atalanta, is favorite at -225 (2 to 9) against Marseille (+160, 8 to 5).
Europa Conference League Odds
Team | Odds |
---|---|
Aston Villa |
+100 |
Fiorentine |
+160 |
Club Brugge |
+700 |
Olympiacos |
+900 |
The only English team left in Europe is Aston Villa and the club is responsible for England’s poor chances of securing a fifth place in next season’s Champions League. Villa are on course to advance to the Champions League while sitting fourth in the Premier League, but are also equal favorites in this competition.
Villa will face Greek club Olympiacos in one of Thursday’s semi-finals. Fiorentina, vice-champion last season in this competition, faces the Belgian team Club Brugge. The odds favor an Aston Villa-Fiorentina final.
(Photo by Kylian Mbappé: Clive Brunskill / Getty Images)