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So a 1.33 ERA isn’t strong enough to keep a spot in the Phillies rotation? Also, notes on the injury to Blake Snell, a Reds reliever with a “gift” and a way to prop up the 3-21 White Sox (or at least one of their minor leaguers). I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!
Spencer Turnbull and his 1.33 ERA head to the bullpen
When Spencer Turnbull left last night’s game, his Philadelphia Phillies were leading the Cincinnati Reds 3-1. He had eight strikeouts and allowed one run on three hits and three walks. His ERA – thanks to a solo home run by Will Benson – had actually jumped, from 1.23 to 1.33. That’s the second-lowest mark in the National League and, as Matt Gelb tells us, the lowest ERA in a pitcher’s first five starts with the franchise since the absurd 0 mark, 68 by Cliff Lee in 2009.
So why does Turnbull appear to have made his final departure for the foreseeable future?
The reasons are a bit complicated (and I’m still not sure they justify this decision). But let’s take a look:
• Taijuan Walker is expected to come off the injured list on Sunday. As Gelb reports, “Walker was miffed at not being included in the club’s plans for the playoffs in October. The Phillies mended their relationship over the winter, and they have incentive to make Walker feel wanted — and needed. Gelb also says this is not a “free pass” situation for Walker, and he will have to perform to keep his spot, especially with Turnbull’s success. But it is a consideration.
• It’s not like there are many other obvious candidates who will lose their spot in the rotation. Here’s where the Phillies starters stand this morning:
It’s a very good rotation that has been going on recently. So, for now at least, Turnbull, 31, appears to be a starter [ahem] arm transformed into an enclosure. Walker will have a chance to prove he belongs, and the Phillies might have the best long reliever in the game.
This is, as they say, a good problem to have. How many teams out of 30 ask opposite question: where the hell are we going to find loose sleeves?
And you know what? This is about the best transition we’re going to find for Ken’s Notebook. Take it off, Ken…
Ken’s notebook: The dangers of betting on yourself
That was the risk Blake Snell took.
“Betting on myself” seems like a noble concept, but the strategy increases the pressure on a player to produce. Snell had an 11.57 ERA in his first three starts with the San Francisco Giants. He is now on the injured list with a sprained left adductor, an injury he said cost him 3-4 weeks after having suffered it twice before. He said he didn’t think the problem was that serious.
Snell’s agent, Scott Boras, said each of his top four free agents — Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery — chose short-term contracts with opt-out clauses rather than long-term contracts. long term. The details of each negotiation and the amounts offered to each player are not known. But Montgomery, after agreeing to a one-year, $25 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks with a player option vested for a second year, left Boras for another agency, Wasserman.
Bellinger, like Snell, was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, suffering two fractured ribs. The timetable for his return is unclear, Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. But even if Bellinger, 28, misses significant time, he’s in a stronger position than Snell. He’s three years younger and has more room to move after signing a three-year, $80 million contract with two opt-outs. Snell signed a two-year, $62 million contract with a.
The $31 million average annual value Snell received matches the 10th highest all-time for a pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani. If Snell’s season ends mediocre, he can return to the Giants with the goal of performing better in 2025. But he would be a year older and return to the open market during his age-33 season.
It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. Despite missing spring training, Snell was expected to be in playing condition after pitching regularly at one of Boras’ athletic training institutes. Montgomery, who has followed a similar program, has had no struggles thus far, producing a 2.08 ERA in his first two starts.
A major league season lasts six months. We are not done with this situation yet. If Snell returns by the end of May, he will still be able to continue the same momentum as last season, when he had a 1.20 ERA in his last 23 starts and won the National League Cy Young Award. There’s a good chance, however, that it will take time for him to get back into shape. When healthy, he has generally been a better thrower in the second half.
Snell started the season playing catch-up. He will come back needing to catch up. This is the path he chose. And at this point, it does indeed look like a rocky road ahead.
Fernando Cruz’s “gift”: his splitter
One of my favorite things in baseball is when a pitcher has a signature “out” pitch – even more so when everyone in the stadium knows it’s happening. It is very good. Hit it if you think you can, here it is.
It happened on Tuesday, when injured Reds pitcher Tejay Antone was in the Bally Sports booth and Fernando Cruz was on the mound, Trea Turner scored twice and, well, I’ll let C. Trent Rosecrans relays this part of the story:
When play-by-play announcer John Sadak asked if it was time for the splitter, Antone replied, “It’s a no-brainer.” Antone then added, “Trea Turner knows it’s coming and he’s going to still go.”
Tejay “Tony Romo” Antone was right. Turner swung and missed.
“And he’ll keep going at it…” @TejayAntone is a gem on the stand. pic.twitter.com/ioGbNyEgMQ
– Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) April 24, 2024
Turner said the next day that he actually expected the split, and why wouldn’t he? As Rosecrans informs us, when there are two strikes, Cruz has thrown his splitter 86.5 percent of the time.
But even though the splitter is nasty and unavoidable, we’re not quite in Mariano-Rivera cutters territory (although Cruz references the terrain in pretty much the same way that Rivera was referring to his signing offer). Rosecrans explains the pitch mix that sets the table for the “gift”: a few other fastballs that often behave unpredictably.
For Cruz, the results speak for themselves: He has a 1.74 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings this year, recording 20 strikeouts and five walks.
“Return” season for the Cand family
Things are (still) bleak on the South Side, but if you need something – or more accurately, someA — for which we must rely, the story of Stephen Nesbitt today provides it in spades.
Chad Kuhl is a veteran of seven seasons in the big leagues since 2016; he logged 615 innings with the Pirates, Rockies and Nationals. When he was designated for assignment last year, it was the kind of decision that sometimes spells the end for a guy over 30 years old with mediocre results. But for Kuhl, it was a chance to return home and take care of his wife, Amanda.
In February, Amanda underwent a double mastectomy and chemotherapy to treat stage 3 breast cancer. Nesbitt spoke to the Kuhls about their journey (and we even get quotes from baseball writer and survivor Emily Waldon!).
Nesbitt does a great job telling the story of a harrowing experience and the good news that follows: Amanda is now in recovery and Chad has another job in baseball. He is currently in Triple-A Charlotte, where he has posted a 3.38 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .222 batting average.
Bringing in a 31-year-old pitcher with a career ERA just under 5.00 won’t change the fortunes of the White Sox this year. But I will make sure Kuhl gets called up to the big leagues and succeeds once he gets there.
Handshakes and High Fives
Clay Holmes has been exceptional as the Yankees have gotten closer. He is also expected to become a free agent at the end of the year. What’s the plan in the Bronx? Meanwhile, Brian Cashman addressed several topics yesterday, including DJ LeMahieu’s delayed rehab, the team’s lack of depth, and Aaron Judge’s slow start.
On April 2, Shohei Ohtani was eight games into the season and hitting .242/.297/.333 (.631 OPS) with no home runs. More than three weeks later, he leads the league in, like everything. Andy McCullough tells us how Dodgers staff and players helped Ohtani in the wake of interpreter Ippei Mizuhara’s gambling and theft scandal.
Kevin Kiermaier is on IL with left hip flexor inflammation. So the Blue Jays called up prospect Addison Barger, who has played every position in the field (plus right field) for his entire minor league career. He made his big league debut last night…in left field.
There is a black hole in Space City. Chandler Rome explores the Astros’ options to address the lack of production at first base.
Francisco Lindor warms up.
Last Friday, we highlighted Dan Brown’s interview with Art Schallock, the oldest living MLB player. Happy birthday to Art, who turns 100 today.
And I really loved this article from our friends at FanGraphs — here’s Davy Andrews on designing the “shiny” Rays logo.
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(Top photo by Spencer Turnbull: Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)