This week I attended the Friday night game between Kentucky and Arkansas and the Backyard Brawl between West Virginia and Pittsburgh at PNC Park on Tuesday. Both games offered a look at potential first-round picks in this year’s MLB draft, including Hagen Smith, who could be the first pitcher off the board.
Hagen Smith continues to rack up the K’s
Smith has been a potential 2024 first-round pick since his freshman year at Arkansas, and he’s improved in each of the past two seasons, peaking at just the right time this year, including a 17-strikeout performance against Oregon. State in Week 2. The southpaw is clearly a top-10 pick and could be in the top five, as he is the best southpaw in the class with two 70s (on the 20-80 recognition scale) in his arsenal. I saw a solid performance from him Friday night against Kentucky, but I saw some very minor things that might lead me to rate him slightly lower than one might infer from the items and line of statistics.
HAGEN SMITH 🤯
14 strikeouts tonight.
125 Ks over the year.Absolutely unreal stuff.@RazorbackBSB X #SECBSB pic.twitter.com/TdUtNiFqe8
– Southeastern Conference (@SEC) May 4, 2024
Smith struck out 14 batters in six innings, allowing just one run, but it wasn’t as dominant as the stat line suggests – certainly not as dominant as the historic start he made at the Globe Life Field in February, which established him as a top-10 pick. Smith came out very strong on Friday, sitting at 95-96 mph through the first three innings with an easier slider and above-average changeup, preferring the slider even in changeup counts typical to righties. However, in his second and third stints in the Kentucky lineup, he began to work and his difficulty getting to his glove side began to show.
He works from the extreme first base of the rubber, so while he is in line with home plate from that point, the only pitch he can reliably locate inside righties is the slider, towards which it usually aims as an aiming chase throw. to the batter’s back foot if he throws. His pitches have all lost some velocity over his last three innings; he didn’t throw a fastball below 95 in the first two frames, then dropped as low as 92 in the sixth, with similar drops in his changeup and slider. His delivery started to fall apart a bit, as he wasn’t finishing in front on every pitch over the last few innings, almost throwing it more and seeing the ball sail more to his arm side, although he finished on enough throws to get out. of problems.
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Smith takes a big step toward the plate on his delivery, coming off the rubber quickly, with very quick acceleration once he gets his arm going, although his back elbow gets a little high and he overpronates late compared to this forward landing. Between that and the low three-quarter arm slot, Smith’s delivery and other things have earned him some comparisons to Chris Sale as a rookie, when the White Sox changed his hand position to give him the slider of erasure which became his throw. Smith’s slider isn’t very good, but it’s an open pitch with a downward slant and sharp break when he reaches for it, and he has good enough arm speed on the changeup to keep some Righties off the fastball.
He is clearly the best left-hander in the draft, either in college or high school, and could be the only left-handed pitcher selected in the top 20. The real debate is whether he is the first college pitcher selected or whether it is from Wake Forest right-hander Chase. Burn. I would prefer Burns because he never had a major arm injury while Smith had Tommy John surgery when he was 16. Burns has shown better command this year, but there’s an argument that Smith has a better track record throwing strikes and he has the advantage of being left-handed. I’d be surprised if any of them were still on the board after the Angels’ pick at 8th overall.
Peyton Stovall healthy and impressive with the bat
Arkansas second baseman Peyton Stovall was a name out of high school, but was considered unsignable because of his commitment to the Hogs. After missing the start of this year with a broken foot, he’s on a tear, hitting .352/.422/.563 through Friday. It’s a very simple swing that produces a lot of contact, and he’s not afraid to swing early, seeing fewer than four pitches per plate this spring.
I can not stop @peyton_stovall right away pic.twitter.com/y0O3P4Imct
– Arkansas Baseball (@RazorbackBSB) May 3, 2024
On Friday, he reached base three times, including via a hard-hit single to left center on a 91 mph fastball from Kentucky right-hander Trey Pooser and a harder 93 mph double to left field later in the game. What you see is probably what you get here – he’s not projectable, and I’d be surprised if he becomes either a 55 power guy or a high walk guy, while he’s adequate at second base and perhaps reaches average with better professional ball instruction. I also think he can really, really hit, and after his sophomore year was ruined (.253/.330/.393) by a torn labrum that ultimately required surgery, we’re now seeing the real Peyton Stovall. He might not make it to the first round, but I don’t see a top 30 player right now.
Ryan Waldschmidt rises quickly
Kentucky left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt has exploded this spring and gone from someone who wasn’t even considered in the third round to a likely first rounder. He was hitting .364/.497/.643 in Friday’s game, in which he had one hit and struck out twice.
WALDYYYYYYYY 🚀🚀🚀
💻 (SECN+)#WeAreUK | @ryanwaldy21 pic.twitter.com/b0yMQ3A5R2
– Kentucky Baseball (@UKBaseball) May 3, 2024
He has a great swing for a guy who starts with a very wide base and no stride, rotating his hips as much as possible given that restriction and showing above average power. In his second at-bat against Smith, he took a 94 mph fastball and lined it against the center field wall for his only hit of the evening. Later, he hit a slider down and away from a right-hander followed by a fastball in the zone, then whiffed a 95 up before taking a slider for a called third strike.
He’s been hitting fastballs most of the spring with a whiff rate of just 11 percent, so it was an unusual night for him, and he rarely pursues, swinging just 19 percent of the time on outfields. of the area. I think there’s another level of production here: the lack of stride or other way to transfer his weight to his front side cuts off some power and leaves him almost on his back knee when he fully rotates. There’s a clear feel for hitting here, and the way everything else is working, he might be one adjustment away from becoming a 25-homer player.
JJ Wetherholt back on the field, continuing to hit
I finally caught up with West Virginia infielder JJ Wetherholt on Tuesday during the Backyard Brawl at PNC Park, where the Mountaineers dominated the Pitt Panthers, taking a 4-0 lead in the first and never looking back. Wetherholt couldn’t run beyond a jog, and WVU positioned second and third basemen to minimize how much he might have to run to reach a ground ball, but chronic hamstring problems didn’t help him. not prevented from striking, because he had two. most hits in four at-bats before the Mountaineers removed him from the game.
T2 | Mountaineers 6, Panthers 0
JJ with a double of 2️⃣ points to extend the lead!#HiWV pic.twitter.com/BdwkIpx39b
– WVU Baseball (@WVUBaseball) April 30, 2024
The first hit was a double the other way on a 92 mph double-seamer to the outside third, and the second was a hard-hit single on a left-handed curveball that he ripped during the side change right. Even with a functioning leg, he looked good at the plate, with a strong stride – seriously, someone showed a Waldschmidt video of this guy – and excellent hip rotation, while accelerating his hand is exceptional. He clearly has excellent hand-eye coordination and he gets his bat going so quickly that he can wait a little longer to recognize pitch types and pitches, which is probably why he barely chases (14%) or whiffs (also 14%).
Sure, I haven’t read anything about his defense, but I’ll take the stick as is.
Grant Hussey sets power record for mountain climbers
West Virginia first baseman Grant Hussey set the school record for career home runs with 36, passing Jed Gyorko and Tim McCabe. He hasn’t even finished his junior year and won’t turn 21 until the end of June.
Huss 🚌 behind 💣#HiWV | @Grant_Hussey616 pic.twitter.com/KPwsFTYwBW
– WVU Baseball (@WVUBaseball) April 30, 2024
Hussey has a cocky approach, swinging at half the pitches he sees and whiffing a third of the time, so he’s not a good draft prospect, but he’s probably a power 70 – he’s hit two home runs at PNC Park, one to the opposite field on a two-seam, easy to take off the bat — and that’s enough that at worst he’ll be a good 2025 senior sign.
(Photo of Smith taken April 26: Richey Miller / Cal Sport Media via Associated Press)