The RBC Heritage is a flagship event on the PGA Tour, offering a seamless structure and a large purse ($20 million). Is this a good way to follow the first major championship of the year? Harder to say.
Some have argued that playing the Zurich Classic would be better suited the week after the Masters. They believe this would allow players to relieve the pressure of competing in a major championship. The fact that RBC Heritage is now a flagship event increases the pressure on players to participate this week with all the money and FedEx Cup points on the line. Of course, some players may consider a no-cut event with a big reward as the perfect follow-up to the pressure of trying to win at Augusta National Golf Club. Hilton Head Island is not a bad place to unwind after a stressful week – and I know that from personal experience. Although I had difficulty getting out of a few bunkers.
Masters winner Scottie Scheffler is still technically in the field for RBC Heritage as I write this, but I suspect he’ll step aside with the birth of his first child any day now . Scheffler was surprised by winning his second green jacket and the other players on the field are surely hoping Scheffler won’t be there for this one.
Harbor Town Golf Links is a course with a very sticky history. Players who can win or compete here tend to do well year after year. Davis Love III has won five times here, while Stewart Cink has three victories, the third coming sixteen years after the second. Luke Donald finished second five times, but just couldn’t break through, even when he was at the top of his game. Is Patrick Cantlay turning into Luke Donald in Harbor Town? He has three top-three finishes in his last five starts here, but has failed to notch a victory.
This week my model will focus on strokes gained on approach, strokes gained at Harbor Town Golf Links, strokes gained on shots from 150-175 yards, strokes gained on sand, and putting percentage. Driving distance is not a factor, as players will use their irons and 3-woods from the tee to set up their second shot into the greens on most holes. If you place the ball on the wrong side of the fairway, you can very easily jam your second shot into the green with tree problems.
Course information
Course: Harbor Town Golf Links — Hilton Head Island, South Carolina
Conceived by: Pete Dye
By: 71
Footage: 7,213
Average green size: 3,700 square feet
Features: Harbor Town Golf Links has hosted the RBC Heritage every year since 1969. The golf course features Celebration Bermuda and TifSports Bermuda on the tees, 419 Bermuda on the fairways and rough, and TifSports Bermuda on the greens. The greens are smaller than average and require players to control their iron shots into the greens. The small greens are protected by bunkers and shaved runoff areas just behind some greens. Like many coastal golf courses, Harbor Town Golf Links begins by playing on narrow fairways bordered on either side by trees before finishing on the shore where it is more open and affected by the wind. Driving precision and positioning will be key for golfers this week.
Former champions: Matt Fitzpatrick 2023, Jordan Spieth 2022, Stewart Cink (his 3rd win here) 2021, Webb Simpson 2020, CT Pan 2019. Davis Love III holds the record with five wins at the RBC Heritage, while Boo Weekley is the latest to defend his title . In 2008.
Bet slip
The chances are PariMGM and live update.
Patrick Cantlay (+1600) finished T22 at the Masters by gaining over 5.7 strokes from tee to green. He had really struggled with his approach shots before Augusta National, but he gained over 3.6 shots on approach. He’s finished in the top seven here four times in his last five tries, and he’s won by more than 4 strokes on approach at Harbor Town three times.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) won in Dubai in January and has three top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour. He has gained over 5.7 strokes off the tee in his last two tournaments while gaining over 8.3 strokes on approach during the same period. He has back-to-back top-15 finishes here while winning more than four strokes combined on approach.
Will Zalatoris (+2800) was on the verge of a victory after knocking off all the rust at the Farmers Insurance Open. He finished in the top five in each of his next two events, then the putter went cold. He struggled with his wind putting on Friday and Saturday at the Masters, but still managed to finish in the top 10. He’s only played here once, finishing 42nd, but he has the ideal iron game to contend here. I like him just a little more than Cameron Young, at the same odds.
Cameron Davis (+6600) is in the middle of a nice shape. He has four top-21 finishes in his last six tournaments, with his only real problem being the missed cut at the Players Championship. He has three straight top-25s here, the last two tournaments being top-seven finishes. He’s gained a combined 4.5 strokes on approach in his last two tournaments and rides a hot putter.
Taylor Moore (+7000) hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship in July 2023. He has three consecutive top-20 finishes and has won more than 12 strokes around the green combined in his last four tournaments. He’s only had one bad day with his irons in his last three tournaments and it was Sunday at the Houston Open that kept him from winning. He finished T11 here last year, winning a ton of strokes with his putter.
DFS Readings
Xander Schauffele ($10,800) has three consecutive top-eight finishes, earning shots across the board. He finally had a bogey-free round at the Masters, and yet he couldn’t get into contention this weekend. He may have figured Harbor Town out last year when he finished 4th while gaining over 7.4 strokes on approach. It will be difficult to remove Schauffele in form and at this price.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) See above.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800) See above.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,600) is absolutely on fire with his putter. He has won more than 17 strokes in his last three tournaments combined. He won here last year on a golf course that has meant a lot to him since he visited Hilton Head Island with his family as a child. He has lost strokes on approach three out of four days in each of his last two tournaments. I want to support Fitzpatrick, but I think he’s not entirely right to go into this title defense.
Will Zalatoris ($9,000) See above.
Cameron Young ($8,700) followed up his 2nd place at Valspar with a T9 at the Masters. He couldn’t maintain his momentum after making a few birdies early in his round at the Masters. You wouldn’t think his power game would suit this course, but he has a T3 here in 2022. He struggled here last year due to losing on 3.3 shots with his short game. He arrives this week not particularly sharp around the green. I don’t recommend going all-in on Young, even at this inviting price.
Shane Lowry ($8,500) lost over 7.2 strokes with his putter at the Masters. This is his worst week since his 6.8 loss at the RBC Heritage last year. The good news is he has three top-nine finishes here in the last five years and has gained more than 6.4 strokes on approach at the Masters. I think he’ll bounce back with the putter and I’m not avoiding him where he can excel.
Brian Harman ($7,800) has been struggling with his irons since his T2 at the Players Championship. He lost more than 6.1 strokes on approach while missing the cut at the Masters. He has three top-nine finishes here in the last 10 years and loves the green spaces as he has won multiple strokes with his putter on each trip here. I’m going to scatter him across a few lineups hoping he can get back into some form.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600) narrowly missed qualifying for the Masters. He has been excellent with his short game, winning more than 13 strokes combined in his last three tournaments. He has three consecutive top-33 finishes here, including a T19 last year. He’s a decent center compared to some very well-owned guys in this lineup.
JT Poston ($7,600) hasn’t been as good as he was in January due to a slight decline in his iron play. He has lost shots on approach in four of his last five tournaments. He has three top-eight finishes here in the last five years, but he also missed the cut by losing more than 10 strokes on approach in two of his last three trips. He’s going to tempt a lot of people this week, but I feel like Davis and Moore are safer and cheaper bets.
Cameron Davis ($7,400) See above.
Taylor Moore ($7,400) See above.
Matthieu Pavon ($7,000) is very tempting at this price as he comes off a T12 at the Masters, but he struggled on the approach this weekend, losing over 2.6 strokes to the field. He hasn’t gained a stroke on the field in a measured event since the Cognizant in early March. His fifth place in Singapore and the way he played at Pebble Beach makes me think about how he will like Harbor Town Golf Links. I think he’s a good pick if he’s at his best with his irons, so I’ll sprinkle him in a bit.
Lucas Glover ($6,800) has gained approach strokes in eight consecutive events and three consecutive top-25 finishes. He has won more than 9.4 strokes combined in his last two tournaments. He hasn’t had much success here, with his best result being a top 18 finish in the last ten years.
Austin Eckroat ($6,400) missed the cut at the Masters but won by more than 4 strokes on approach in four of his last five tournaments that week. He’s been struggling with his putter since his victory, which has hampered his game. I think he’s going to like this golf course.
Chandler Phillips ($6,000) might sneak me into a few GPP lineups where I want to line up Xander and Cantlay this week. Phillips has the ability to dial in his irons, as evidenced by his gain of over 2.9 strokes on approach in four of his last five measured events.
One and done
Each week we will make a selection in reverse order of ranking and we cannot duplicate selections in the same week. Reference this spreadsheet track who we used.
Ranking
Brody Miller: $5,740,592.83
Hugh Kellenberger: $3,692,699.13
Dennis Esser: $1,776,619
Dennis Esser as Tommy Fleetwood won in Dubai earlier this year and has three top-ten finishes in his last five tournaments. He still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but I have a feeling that could change this week.
Hugh Kellenberger: I will go with Patrick Cantlay, who averaged a T7 in six appearances in Harbor Town. After missing his usual top 10 at a major tournament, he has extra motivation.
Brody Miller: Tommy Fleetwood. He picks up where he left off after a great year in 2023 – winning in Dubai, placing in the top 10 at Arnold Palmer and Valero before a superb Sunday run to finish T3 at the Masters. He has finished in the top 15 the last two years at Hilton Head. Maybe he finally gets his first PGA Tour victory.
(Photo by Tommy Fleetwood: Jamie Squire/Getty Images)