What was expected is now official.
With Tuesday night’s Play-In Tournament victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, the Los Angeles Lakers secured seventh place in the Western Conference. This comes with a matchup against the No. 2 seed and defending champion Denver Nuggets. The first game will take place Saturday in front of a national prime-time television audience at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
But what are the key factors in this revenge? Last year the teams met in the Western Conference Finals and it wasn’t close as the Nuggets swept the Lakers. The Nuggets have won eight straight games against Los Angeles, many of them following the same script: Games are close until the clutch time of possessions, where Denver has a significant advantage.
So, what awaits us? Can the Lakers win? Can they even compete? Here are some thoughts on what could happen, as well as some of the benefits and challenges each team will face.
One of the biggest factors that led Denver to sweep the Lakers last season was the biggest variable: Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray were the two best players in the series.
Jokić being the better player, even better than LeBron James, who finished the series averaging almost 30 triple-double points, is not what broke the Lakers. Last season, Jokić was considered by many to be the best player in the world. But James and Anthony Davis had to be the second and third best players in the series, and Murray was marginally better than them with a tremendous display of scoring and playmaking. In a series ending in a sweep but also with three of the four games decided by six points or less, the margins mattered at a significant level, and Murray helped show those just how capable he was of elevating his game.
James was good in last year’s series. He had 40 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in Denver’s final victory. But he didn’t take over and impose his will on the series like he has done so many times over the past two decades. Los Angeles has a slim chance of winning this year’s series, and that hope almost universally lies in James delivering an epic performance. He doesn’t have to be the best player in the series, but he can’t be the third or fourth best player – like he was last year.
This has to be said because Denver has the combination of high-end talent in Jokić and Murray, along with the depth of the rest of a starting lineup that has made the Nuggets the favorite in the Western Conference. The Lakers just have to find a way to not allow Murray, who averaged 32.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.8 steals while shooting .527/.405/. 950 during the sweep of the Nuggets, to dominate. He’s going to make shots, but we can’t allow him to impose his will.
That’s the challenge for Los Angeles – and the advantage for Denver. The Lakers don’t have a defensive matchup for Murray. Their guards were burned last year. There doesn’t seem to be any answer on paper this time. This gives the Lakers a chance of having to beat the Nuggets with a superior offense. But the Nuggets, with their ability to defend and get stops, have one of the best offenses in the league.
As a result, everything becomes so difficult.
No better time for the Lakers
Some on social media have argued that it would be prudent for the Lakers to try to avoid the Nuggets for as long as possible. The opposite is true. For the Lakers, the best time is now, from the first round, from the start.
James and Davis showed fatigue last season after grueling series with the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors. This time around, the wear and tear before the playoffs will be less. The Lakers have three days off before the first game on Saturday. There is a one-day delay for Game 2, then several days off before Games 3 and 4.
Why is this more impactful for Los Angeles? The Lakers are the older team and Denver is the team that can play through more wear and tear.
On Sunday, James produced a masterpiece against the New Orleans Pelicans, dropping a 28-point triple-double. On Tuesday, on an off day, James still played well and controlled much of the game, but he shot 6 of 20 from the field and had a mediocre fourth quarter. He couldn’t get into his spots off the dribble, allowing New Orleans to come back from a significant deficit and nearly steal the game.
There is a clear difference between a rested James and a tired James; The advantage for the Nuggets is that they show virtually no signs of fatigue. If you’re the Lakers, you don’t want to see Denver deeper in the playoffs when the playoffs are happening every other day. You want to see them when you have multiple intervals of more than one day off. This may not yet be enough, but it should at least provide a glimmer of hope.
Prepare the young people
Christian Braun is less immune to this than Peyton Watson, as Braun became more of an integral part of Nuggets head coach Michael Malone’s rotation last season as the playoffs progressed. Braun is a few rungs down the ladder of importance, and Watson is heading into his first playoffs as one of the main guys. On some level, they are both going to be planned and prepared and the Nuggets need a positive reaction from them.
Specifically, you can be sure that the Lakers will send extra help to defend Jokić and Murray whenever Watson is on the floor, so he will have to shoot and make the open shots that come his way. The Lakers will test Braun the same way, even though the second-year forward from Kansas is more refined offensively.
Denver fans should have limited, if any, concern for both defensively. Both are playmakers on that side; Watson is a sensational defender in the making. Don’t be shocked to see Watson give James trouble over this. He’s so good on that side of the ball. But you can bet James will play a lot of center court if Watson can’t make shots. It’s important for the Nuggets that Watson and Braun score, as both are important to what the Nuggets want to accomplish this spring.
Expect Denver’s rotation to have nine players in the playoffs. There will be the starting five. There will be Watson and Braun. There will be Reggie Jackson as the backup point guard and veteran wing Justin Holiday, who has proven valuable off the bench. Expect Aaron Gordon to play center in the minutes Jokić goes to the bench. It worked wonderfully in the last playoffs, so there’s no reason to deviate from it.
Russell, the Lakers’ dynamic point guard, couldn’t stay on the court during the series against the Nuggets last year. He didn’t defend well, which allowed Murray to get into rhythm. This affected Russell offensively and the Lakers were unable to compensate for it. His inability to defend and the point of attack will cause all sorts of matchup problems for the Lakers if they can’t figure him out this time.
Overall, the Nuggets are a real matchup problem for the Lakers. Russell on Murray? This probably isn’t good for the Lakers. Austin Reaves? Definitely not. James? Not for more than a possession or two. The Lakers will have to make a lot of shots.
The biggest problem: fat people
Davis is one of the best defenders in the league. He is a master as a rim protector. He defends most big players well in isolation.
But he’s just a fly in the face of Jokić.
Davis showed no ability to bother Jokić – or make him pause or make him do a counterattack or two. He doesn’t win many singular reps against Jokić. As a result, the Lakers defense was dead upon arrival against the Nuggets. Last year, Los Angeles tried Rui Hachimura against Jokić, and it had limited success, until Jokić adapted and happily started getting what he wanted offensively. James has had some success isolating defensively against Jokić, but the Lakers don’t want to resort to that option full-time.
This puts the onus on Davis. And even though we know Jokić is hard to stop, Davis can’t even seem to contain him. This is the main reason why the Nuggets had so much success against Los Angeles. Until Davis proves otherwise, don’t expect anything different.
(Photo: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)