England’s hopes of a fifth place finish in the Champions League took a hit this week as the five Premier League clubs in European action recorded just one win between them.
Liverpool were emphatically beaten by Serie A side Atalanta 3-0 at Anfield, leaving Jurgen Klopp’s side with a mountain to climb for the second leg in Bergamo on Thursday. West Ham United were also beaten by Bundesliga champions-elect Bayer Leverkusen, losing 2-0 at the BayArena.
With Italy’s extra place all but assured thanks to the strong continental performances of most of its clubs this season, the Premier League is battling with the Bundesliga to be the other league to claim an extra Champions League place for the campaign 2024-25.
Indeed, two additional places – created through the expansion of the Champions League from 32 teams to 36 – are allocated on the basis of each nation’s seasonal coefficient, which is determined by the clubs’ performances in the three European club competitions of this campaign.
According to Opta’s prediction model, England are still narrow favorites to clinch the extra second Champions League spot, but Arsenal’s second leg against Bayern Munich is crucial. Manchester City can also make things easier if they get past Real Madrid at home on Wednesday.
So, what happens before the European second leg? Athleticism explains below.
Why are there additional Champions League places on offer?
The Champions League will move from the 32-team format to 36 teams at the start of next season. Athleticism explained the format change in great detail, which you can find below.
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How the new Champions League format works
Of these four additional places for the group stage, one will be awarded to the league which finishes this season fifth (currently the French Ligue 1) in the UEFA country rankings, which combines the coefficient points accumulated over the last five seasons.
One of these will be won by a national title winner from one of the continent’s lower divisions via the ‘Champions Path’ qualifiers. The other two will be awarded to the leagues whose clubs achieve the best results in this season’s European competitions.
The latter two are called the ‘European performance spots’ by UEFA and could see the fifth-placed Premier League side progress directly into next season’s new group stage.
Which nations are leading the race for an additional Champions League place?
Heading into next week’s second leg, Italy are all but guaranteed an extra place in next season’s Champions League, while Germany and England are neck and neck (with 16,785 and 16,750 points), although, as noted, Opta’s model still gives the Premier League a score of 58 percent. 100 chance of getting one of the two additional places.
England had the most representatives in European competitions at the start of the season (eight), but their seasonal coefficient was affected by Newcastle United and Manchester United finishing bottom of their Champions League groups. Had they finished third, they would have entered the knockout stages of the Europa League, giving both teams the opportunity to accumulate more points.
Of the six teams that were successful after Christmas, only Brighton & Hove Albion were eliminated. They at least added a few coefficient points to the total by winning 1-0 against Roma in the second leg of the Europa League round of 16.
Before the start of the quarter-finals, Opta made England considerable favorites (70.6 percent, compared to Germany’s 29.1 percent) to win the additional fifth place in the Champions League for next season, but the underperformance of Premier League teams this week has allowed Bundesliga clubs to close the gap significantly.
It seems unlikely that England will be represented in the Europa League semi-finals. Liverpool have a history of European comebacks, but a poor performance this week at home to Atalanta leaves them as major underdogs.
Meanwhile, in London, it will take a sensational performance from West Ham to overcome a 2-0 deficit against Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen, a side who are yet to lose a game in any competition this season.
On the positive side, Aston Villa continue to perform well in the Europa Conference League, beating Lille 2-1 at home in the first leg. They are favorites to advance to the semi-finals, where they will face Olympiacos or Fenerbahce.
It means England’s best chance of securing an additional Champions League place lies in Europe’s biggest club competition. Manchester City progressing against Real Madrid would significantly help the cause. After drawing 3-3 at the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday, they welcome Madrid to the Etihad next Wednesday, where they beat the same opponents 4-0 in the second leg of this year’s Champions League semi-finals last.
Arsenal are also tied, having drawn 2-2 against Bayern, but they must travel to Germany for the second leg. If Arsenal beat Bayern and City beat Real, they will face each other in the semi-final, ensuring that an English club will qualify for the final. That should seal a fifth Champions League spot for England, especially if Atletico Madrid manage to knock out Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday.
Atletico looked set to beat Dortmund by two goals, but Sebastien Haller’s 81st-minute goal at the Civitas Metropolitano keeps Edin Terzic’s side firmly in a draw at 2-1.
Spain’s La Liga has three of the eight quarter-finalists in this season’s Champions League, but its teams’ performances in the Europa League and Europa Conference League make it almost impossible for them to place in the top two spots in this season’s coefficient . They could still have a role to play, however, as an Atletico victory would damage Germany’s hopes, leaving the responsibility solely on Bayern and Leverkusen.
Who would benefit from an additional place in the Champions League?
Continued progress in the Europa Conference League could be doubly beneficial for Unai Emery and his Aston Villa players.
Villa sit fifth in the Premier League, level on points with Tottenham Hotspur in fourth, although Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs have a game in hand. Villa have recently shown signs of decline from their excellent early season form, but Tottenham still have to face Arsenal, City and Liverpool in their final seven games of the league season.
Arsenal’s progress in the Champions League could be crucial to Spurs’ hopes of making the competition next season. This leaves Tottenham fans with the dilemma of wanting their north London rivals to beat Bayern and increase the Premier League coefficient while hoping they don’t get their hands on a first Champions League trophy before the Spurs.
In Germany, Dortmund could directly affect their chances of playing in the Champions League next season, as they occupy fifth place in the Bundesliga. With six matches remaining in their league season, they are level on points with fourth-placed RB Leipzig, who they face on April 27.
In Italy, Roma are fifth, five points ahead of sixth-placed Atalanta. With Bologna fourth, three points clear of Roma, and Italy’s fifth place in the Champions League all but assured, they will likely make their first European Cup appearance since the 1964-65 season.
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How to accumulate coefficient points?
As the graphic above shows, there are still many points on offer. With fewer teams in Europe to win them, they are even more valuable and will have a bigger difference in the overall standings.
The coefficient contributing to this ranking is calculated as an average rather than as a total to cancel out the advantage obtained by the nations with the most European representatives. The equation is simple: the number of points accumulated by a nation’s teams divided by the number of teams competing.
So, as eight English teams were competing in Europe at the start of the season, each of their points is divided by eight.
Here is how each country accumulates these points:
UCL = UEFA Champions League, UEL = UEFA Europa League, UECL = UEFA Europa Conference League
2 – All group stage wins (UCL, UEL, UECL)
1 – All victories in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
1 – All group stage draws (UCL, UEL, UECL)
0.5 – All draws from qualifying matches and play-offs (UCL, UEL, UECL)
4 – Participation in the group stage bonus (UCL)
4 – Bonus for participation in the round of 16 (UCL)
4 – Group winners (UEL)
2 – Group vice-champion (UEL)
2 – Group winners (UECL)
1 – Group vice-champion (UECL)
1 – Each round the clubs reach the round of 16 (UCL, UEL)
1 – Each round the clubs reach the semi-finals (UECL)
What is the distribution of additional places?
Assuming the extra places go to two of the following countries: Italy, England or Germany, fifth place will enter the Champions League and they will have eight (instead of seven) places in Europe.
If England wins fifth place, the European situation will look like this:
- Champions League: from first to fifth in the Premier League
- Europa League: sixth and winner of the FA Cup
- Europa Conference League: Carabao Cup winners
If the domestic cup winners finish in the top six, those who finish seventh and eighth will earn a place in Europe.
If the Bundesliga and Serie A win, their European table will look like this:
- Champions League: from first to fifth in their respective top divisions
- Europa League: sixth and cup winner
- Europa League Conference: Seventh
If a team wins the Europa League but fails to qualify for the Champions League, its domestic league could have six places in UEFA’s premier competition – the five places awarded by coefficient performances plus the winners of the Europa League.
Due to West Ham’s first leg defeat against Leverkusen and the high likelihood of Liverpool finishing one place in the Champions League, this situation is unlikely to happen in England this season.
(Top photo: Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)