The Premier League is set to miss out on an extra Champions League place next season after Arsenal were knocked out by Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals on Wednesday.
Two nations will be awarded an additional fifth place in next season’s edition of Europe’s premier club competition, with the performance of Italian teams in Europe expected to guarantee Serie A one of those places.
Second place in terms of coefficients will go to either the Premier League or the German Bundesliga, with both nations neck and neck heading into the quarter-finals of all three competitions.
The Bundesliga’s average was slightly higher than the Premier League’s, but Germany’s top flight now had just four clubs in the competition, compared to five English clubs.
The scenario gave additional importance to the two direct confrontations between the Bundesliga and the Premier League; Arsenal’s draw against Bayern Munich in the Champions League and the Europa League encounter between West Ham United and new German champions Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayern drew in north London before beating Mikel Arteta’s side in the second leg to progress to the semi-final. Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen are in charge against West Ham after their two-goal first-leg victory in Germany.
Additionally, Manchester City are out of the Champions League after their elimination at the hands of Real Madrid, while Borussia Dortmund join Bundesliga rivals Bayern in the last four after their elimination at Atletico Madrid.
With West Ham and Liverpool, who lost the first leg of their quarter-final against Atalanta 3-0, both in tricky situations, that would leave just Aston Villa in the Europa Conference League with three German clubs remaining.
All of this would mean the Bundesliga is set to clinch the remaining Champions League spot, with the fifth-place Premier League qualifying for next season’s Europa League instead.
Tottenham Hotspur currently sit in fifth place and sit three points behind fourth-placed Aston Villa with a game in hand.
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Why are there additional Champions League places on offer?
The Champions League will move from the 32-team format to 36 teams at the start of next season.
Of these four additional places for the group stage, one will be awarded to the league which finishes this season fifth in the UEFA country rankings, which combines the coefficient points accumulated over the last five seasons.
One of these will be won by a national title winner from one of the continent’s lower divisions via the ‘Champions Path’ qualifiers. The other two will be awarded to the leagues whose clubs achieve the best results in this season’s European competitions.
The latter two are called the ‘European performance spots’ by UEFA and could see the fifth-placed Premier League side progress directly into next season’s new group stage.
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Which nations are leading the race for an additional Champions League place?
Heading into this week’s second leg, Italy were almost guaranteed an extra place in next season’s Champions League, while Germany and England were neck and neck (with 16,785 and 16,750 points).
The coefficient has not yet been updated after Wednesday’s results, but Germany moved ahead of England after Borussia Dortmund’s victory over Atletico Madrid on Tuesday (17,214 points to 16,750).
Spain’s La Liga had three of the eight quarter-finalists in this season’s Champions League, but its teams’ performances in the Europa League and Europa Conference League make it almost impossible for them to place in the top two spots in this season’s coefficient .
England had the most representatives in European competitions at the start of the season (eight), but their seasonal coefficient was affected by Newcastle United And Manchester United finishing last in their Champions League group. If they had finished third, they would have entered the Europa League the knockout stages, giving both sides the opportunity to accumulate more points.
Of the six teams that were successful after Christmas, only Brighton & Hove Albion were eliminated. They at least added a few coefficient points to the total by winning 1-0 against Roma in the second leg of the Europa League round of 16.
Why were the Champions League quarter-finals so important?
Before the quarter-finals began, Opta had England as considerable favorites (70.6 percent, compared to Germany’s 29.1 percent) to win the additional fifth place in the Champions League for next season, but the Premier League teams’ underperformance in the first legs of the quarter final ties allowed the Bundesliga clubs to narrow the gap.
If Arsenal had beaten Bayern and Manchester City had beaten Real Madrid they would have faced each other in the semi-final, ensuring that an English club would progress to the final. This should have guaranteed England a fifth place in the Champions League, especially if Atletico had been knocked out. Dortmund Tuesday.
However, Arsenal and Man City both went out, while Dortmund overcame a first-leg deficit to advance to the semi-finals with a 5-4 aggregate victory over Atletico.
It also seems unlikely that England will be represented in the Europa League semi-finals. Liverpool were beaten 3-0 at home to Atalanta, while West Ham must overcome a 2-0 deficit against Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen, a team that has yet to lose a match in any competition this season.
Aston Villa, however, is continues to go well in the Europa Conference League, beating Lille 2-1 at home in the first leg.
How to accumulate coefficient points?
The coefficient is calculated as an average rather than a total to negate the advantage obtained by the nations with the most European representatives. The equation is simple: the number of points accumulated by a nation’s teams divided by the number of teams competing.
So, as eight English teams were competing in Europe at the start of the season, each of their points is divided by eight.
Here is how each country accumulates these points:
UCL = UEFA Champions League, UEL = UEFA Europa League, UECL = UEFA Europa Conference League
2 – All group stage wins (UCL, UEL, UECL)
1 – All victories in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
1 – All group stage draws (UCL, UEL, UECL)
0.5 – All draws from qualifying matches and play-offs (UCL, UEL, UECL)
4 – Participation in the group stage bonus (UCL)
4 – Bonus for participation in the round of 16 (UCL)
4 – Group winners (UEL)
2 – Group vice-champion (UEL)
2 – Group winners (UECL)
1 – Group vice-champion (UECL)
1 – Each round the clubs reach the round of 16 (UCL, UEL)
1 – Each round the clubs reach the semi-finals (UECL)
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