Can the Vegas Golden Knights repeat? Or are the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs destined for the NHL’s first all-Canadian Stanley Cup Final since 1989? Or will a low-key team blow out this year’s playoffs, like the Florida Panthers did last year?
With the playoffs opening on Saturday, Athleticism asked these questions and more to our NHL staff.
Here are our picks to win each first-round series, the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Conn Smythe Trophy and the Stanley Cup, as well as the picks for biggest potential disappointment and a dark horse in the playoffs.
To analyze and critique the picks, we brought in national writer Sean Gentille, analytics specialist Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
First Round Series Predictions
Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
Percentage of votes | Lightning | Panthers |
---|---|---|
4 games |
0.0% |
0.0% |
5 games |
0.0% |
6.3% |
6 games |
0.0% |
46.9% |
7 games |
25.0% |
21.9% |
Total |
25.0% |
75.0% |
Kind: This seems fair. “They are the Lightning” will naturally be enough for one in four people. I get it too – but Tampa Bay’s depth issues on defense keep me from picking them.
Goldman: I like that Tampa Bay’s only shot seems to be the one in Game 7 – bringing the “they know what it takes” vibe.
Granger: I was one of the few to choose the Lightning. The Panthers are the better overall team, but Andrei Vasilevskiy has finally started to look like himself as time goes on. He is 8-2 with a .950 save percentage and two shutouts against Florida in the playoffs. It won’t be easy, but Tampa Bay is capable of springing a surprise.
Atlantic Division: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins
Percentage of votes | maple leaves | Bruins |
---|---|---|
4 games |
3.1% |
0.0% |
5 games |
3.1% |
3.1% |
6 games |
12.5% |
21.9% |
7 games |
18.8% |
37.5% |
Total |
37.5% |
62.5% |
Kind: If these were the exact Coyotes and Flames rosters, or whatever, I guarantee it would be closer to a 50/50 split.
Granger: Totally agree, Sean. History influenced the votes here, even though these teams were very close (and the odds show it). That said, I opted for Boston (because of the huge goaltending mismatch, not because of the history).
Metro Division: Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers
Percentage of votes | Capitals | Rangers |
---|---|---|
4 games |
0.0% |
21.9% |
5 games |
0.0% |
56.3% |
6 games |
3.1% |
15.6% |
7 games |
0.0% |
3.1% |
Total |
3.1% |
96.9% |
Kind: One staff person really, really likes Charlie Lindgren. I can’t blame them, but… no.
Goldman: If the Capitals could have clinched the second wild card spot a little earlier, we might feel a little different.
Granger: This will be a short series.
Metro Division: New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Percentage of votes | Islanders | Hurricanes |
---|---|---|
4 games |
0.0% |
9.4% |
5 games |
0.0% |
46.9% |
6 games |
0.0% |
25.0% |
7 games |
12.5% |
6.3% |
Total |
12.5% |
87.5% |
Kind: Last season, Isles-over-Canes was a trendy first-round pick. I see we’re not coming back to that one.
Goldman: It’s going to be so funny if, in the year the Canes finally do what we’ve all been screaming to do – add a real scorer in Jake Guentzel – they upset in the first round.
Granger: Not only do the Hurricanes clearly have the better team, but they also seem to excel in the aspects that the Islanders struggle with. This looks like a great game for Carolina.
Central Division: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars
Percentage of votes | Golden Knights | Stars |
---|---|---|
4 games |
0.0% |
3.1% |
5 games |
0.0% |
0.0% |
6 games |
6.3% |
31.3% |
7 games |
9.4% |
50.0% |
Total |
15.6% |
84.4% |
Kind: The Stars were (and are) my pick to win the Cup, but I have to say I’m surprised at how lopsided the voting is on this one. Vegas is doing well, and it’s about to get Mark Stone back. That alone should be worth more than 15 percent.
Goldman: Everyone picks and hopes the Stars avoid the LTIR talk if Vegas wins. One thing seems certain to me: this series will go the distance.
Granger: I think Dallas has the more complete roster, but the clash of systems worries me for the Stars. Pete DeBoer’s offensive system, which relies on strong possession and takes tons of shots from the outside, has always had issues with good defensive teams playing in a compact area around the net. It was one of the main reasons Vegas advanced to the conference finals last year, and it could happen again.
Central Division: Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets
Percentage of votes | avalanche | Jets |
---|---|---|
4 games |
0.0% |
0.0% |
5 games |
9.4% |
6.3% |
6 games |
21.9% |
21.9% |
7 games |
28.1% |
12.5% |
Total |
59.4% |
40.6% |
Kind: That’s a lot of people who approve of Alexandar Georgiev.
Goldman: I can’t decide if too many of us are sleeping in Winnipeg or if we’re just confident that Colorado’s star power will take over.
Granger: The lineups are tight, in my opinion, with a slight advantage over Colorado, but the goaltending is so unbalanced that it’s going to take one hell of a series from the Avs to win this.
Pacific Division: Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks
Percentage of votes | Predators | Canucks |
---|---|---|
4 games |
0.0% |
3.1% |
5 games |
0.0% |
12.5% |
6 games |
15.6% |
18.8% |
7 games |
25.0% |
25.0% |
Total |
40.6% |
59.4% |
Kind: For me, this is perhaps the most interesting series of the first round, and it hinges on Juuse Saros.
Goldman: I’m with you on this, Sean. It really feels like this could last seven years and be a draw.
Granger: The Canucks haven’t been respected all season, and it feels like they’re there too. I’m thinking about cruises in Vancouver.
Pacific Division: Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers
Percentage of votes | kings | The tankers |
---|---|---|
4 games |
0.0% |
6.3% |
5 games |
0.0% |
37.5% |
6 games |
0.0% |
46.9% |
7 games |
0.0% |
9.4% |
Total |
0.0% |
100.0% |
Kind: Kings are all about Blutarsky, huh?
Goldman: I think a lot of us gave the Kings a better chance to win against Edmonton in recent years. So this will be the year they actually do it, right?
Granger: All the kings had to do was not score in the final two minutes of Thursday’s game against Chicago and they would fly to Dallas. Instead, they face an Oilers team that seemingly no one gives them a chance against.
Dark Horse wins the Cup
Note: You must have odds of +2000 or less to win the Cup, with odds per PariMGM.
Kind: The Lightning should be exempt here, regardless of the rules and odds.
Granger: Accept.
Goldman: Nashville shows this disruptive potential. This totally clicks here.
Favorites who will be the biggest disappointment
Note: You must have odds of +1000 or higher to win the Cup, with odds per PariMGM.
Kind: And now the Georgiev skeptics have entered the chat. To welcome.
Goldman: I understand why Colorado is so high here, but I’m surprised Dallas isn’t with a first-round matchup against Vegas.
Granger: There are so many tied first-round series between contenders that it almost seems wrong to view the losers as “disappointments.”
Eastern Conference Champion
Kind: I’m not saying I’d pick the Bruins – I think they lose to Toronto, actually – but it’s interesting to see them completely excluded from this vote.
Goldman: After the deadline, it feels like Carolina has become the team to beat. The Jake Guentzel effect is real!
Granger: I’m a little surprised the Rangers didn’t get more love here. It’s a very complete team with an elite goalkeeper who finds his rhythm at the right time.
Western Conference Champion
Team | Percentage of votes |
---|---|
65.6% |
|
18.8% |
|
6.3% |
|
6.3% |
|
3.1% |
Kind: All this action on deadlines at the top of the West, and this is what it led to? The stars against the field? Sheesh.
Goldman: I chose Dallas, so I added to that imbalance. But the West is so stacked that I feel like it should be a lot closer.
Granger: The overall perception of the Oilers has been an absolute roller coaster this year, and it looks like at the end of the first round, they could get a lot more votes than that. I tried to move forward, but few of them agreed.
Stanley Cup Champion
Kind: The Stars were my choice in pre-season, and I never hesitated. Integrity matters.
Goldman: Florida, rightfully shocked, fell to this level after getting so many votes to win the East. Many of us see them losing again in the final.
Granger: The Rangers are my pick, but I can’t remember a playoff series where I felt like more teams had a legitimate chance to win it all.
Conn Smythe winner
Kind: I love Sebastian Aho as much as the next person, but I’m a little surprised to see him at #1. It’s another testament to how good Dallas is. Five different players share the Stars’ votes.
Goldman: I think the most interesting part of this list is how many names at the top of the list (besides Nathan MacKinnon) are not at the top of the list for the Hart Trophy. Someone else might get their MVP moment.
Granger: Not only is the field wide open, but we can’t even come to a consensus on each team’s MVPs. What a fun few months these are going to be.
(Top photo of Mark Stone lifting the Stanley Cup in 2023: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)