If you have a weakness somewhere in your lineup, NHL teams are going to find it and exploit it in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If it’s a big enough problem, it could end up being the difference in a best-of-seven series.
The Edmonton Oilers could have one of these issues in their series against the Vancouver Canucks, and it was clearly on display in Vancouver’s 5-4 victory in Game 1 of the series on Wednesday night.
This issue concerns the team’s second defensive duo of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci. They were victims of three goals in the Canucks’ victory. For the playoffs, this duo was outscored by a margin of 7-3 when on the ice during 5-on-5 play and was one of the least productive duos in the league this playoffs .
When you dig even deeper below the surface, the numbers become even more concerning. Among the 32 defensive pairs who have played at least 50 minutes of ice time together at 5-on-5 during the playoffs, the Nurse-Ceci duo allows 4.37 goals per 60 minutes, ranking them 31st out of 32. They allow also over 4.00 expected goals against, which is the absolute worst mark out of these 32 pairs (via NaturalStatTrick). When this duo is not on the ice, the Oilers outscore teams by a margin of 11-8 and allow just 2.14 expected goals per 60 minutes. It’s a problem, and it’s one of the biggest Achilles heels this team could have.
Even though Nurse and Ceci were slightly better during the regular season, the Stanley Cup Playoffs can be a whole different animal when it comes to game planning and matchups. When playing the same team every game with a season on the line, teams schedule a lot more games and go out of their way to get certain matchups than in a random regular season game in October.
Depth – both forward and defense – has been a concern for the Oilers throughout the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era, and that concern could be lurking beneath the surface again in the playoffs. They’ve scored just two goals as a team while neither McDavid nor Draisaitl have been on the ice in the playoffs, and now their second defensive pairing is being exploited. If they don’t find an answer to that, the Canucks will keep hammering and could potentially win the series.
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How to watch: 7 p.m. ET on TNT, SN
Series tied 1-1
Series odds: Panthers -185, Bruins +150
- As the series moves to Boston, keep in mind that the Panthers won three of four games in Boston during last year’s playoffs, including two games in overtime.
- Florida’s Aleksander Barkov is on a roll right now with four goals and three assists in the Panthers’ last three playoff games.
- Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy was on the ice for two more goals at 5-on-5 in their Game 2 loss. So far in the playoffs, the Bruins have been outscored 8-5 with him on the ice in 5-on-5 play and have scored less than 48 percent of expected goals.
- After opening the playoffs with eight points in his first four games, Brad Marchand hit a scoring slump with just two assists (and zero goals) over the Bruins’ final five games. He also has only five shots on goal during this stretch after registering 14 in the first four games.
- Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman only had an .826 save percentage in Game 2 before being pulled, but he usually doesn’t have more than one bad game in a row. He played in 14 games during the regular season with a save percentage below .890, and a collective save percentage of .924 in the games immediately following them.
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Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks — Game 2
How to watch: 10 p.m. ET on TNT, SN
Canucks lead series 1-0
Series odds: Oilers -140, Canucks +120
- The Canucks have won all five of their games against the Oilers this season and have scored 26 goals in total.
- Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson has just one goal in his last 20 games and none so far in the playoffs. However, he is showing signs of emerging from this goalscoring crisis. He has had at least three shots on goal in two of his last three games after recording at least three shots in just two of the 17 games leading up to that streak.
- The Oilers have scored just two goals in 117 minutes of 5-on-5 playoff hockey with neither McDavid nor Draisaitl on the ice. The lack of depth around them has been a problem for most of their career.
- After Wednesday’s loss, Edmonton goaltender Stuart Skinner has just an .887 save percentage in 18 career playoff games. This is the 10th of 12 goalies who have appeared in at least 10 playoff games over the past two seasons.
- The Canucks would be wise to try to keep this series 5-on-5 as much as possible. The Oilers’ power play converts on over 47 percent of its power plays, while Vancouver’s converts on just 12 percent. The Oilers were dominated 5-5 in the playoffs (16-15) before the second game of the series.
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(Photo by Connor McDavid and Quinn Hughes: Derek Cain / Getty Images)