Welcome to today’s MLB Projections, your guide to daily baseball betting. With the help of Derek Carty’s THE BAT
Both Carty and Mock deploy complex statistics and projection models throughout the MLB season. Of course, the end goal of all this analysis is to improve your enjoyment of watching baseball, whether you’re poring over the odds all day long or just want more in-depth information on your favorite team’s game.
For those new to baseball betting (first of all, welcome and how did you get here!), we’ve included some links and brief explanations. For data lovers and betting pros, you can skip straight to the good stuff.
In the first set of data, Derek Carty Analysis of electric vehicles takes into account everything from best odds value to today’s weather. There are playoff and World Series odds, quantified as percentage chances, for all MLB teams. The data also produced betting angles and player prop information.
Below, every weekday, you’ll find Austin Mock screenings, including “K Prop of the Day,” his “Beat the streak» choose and “Dinger of the day”. Brief explanations of each are included below.
All odds you see are from PariMGM.
BAT X SCREENINGS
ts In the tables below you will see details for each MLB game and then lots of numbers: “Silver Line” shows the odds for each team on BetMGM. “implied % gain” is the chance a team has of winning based on these BetMGM odds. “THE BAT X wins %” is a team’s chance of winning based on EV Analytics projections. “Cash line” This is how THE BAT “Value” is the percentage difference between the odds and our projections.
Obviously, the higher the value percentage, the better – which you can easily see by the color coding from red (bad choice) to green (good choice).
Note: On mobile, you may need to scroll down to see the color-coded “Value” column on the far right of the first set of tables.
The Austin Mock Model
K accessory of the day
- Triston McKenzie less than 5.5 (+105)
- Project models he will have: 5
- Generally: 6-5 -0.15 units, -1.1% ROI
Beat Streak’s Pick
(Current streak: 0; best season: 4)
- Alexandre Bogaerts (75.8% chance of an achievement today)
Dinger of the day
(Note: It’s not so much about who will hit a home run, but rather who has good value for an HR bet based on the model versus the BetMGM odds)
- Juan Soto (+550)
- The model says the chances should be: +426
- Generally: 1-9, -2.50 units -25.0% ROI
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(Photo: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Chung Sung-Jun / Getty Images; Quinn Harris / Getty Images; design by Sean Reilly)