Our first attempt at analyzing the projected Stanley Cup playoff games came seven days ago. Since then, four of the eight first-round series have changed, two new teams have entered the bracket entirely, even more chaos awaits as the Eastern Conference ends and 10 days of games remain.
There’s a reason for doing this – we swear. Maybe not really, but it’s still a point.
A few important things before getting to the heart of the matter:
• The Pittsburgh Penguins, who have won four in a row and six of seven, are not currently in position to qualify for the playoffs. If they win their remaining five games, they are guaranteed to achieve this. Thursday night’s game against the Red Wings will be important for both teams.
• Main reason for the Pittsburgh conflagration: Washington and Philadelphia went off the rails. Both spent time as Metro’s third seed and first wild card last week, and neither is currently in either spot. The Capitals have lost six games in a row (and were outscored 25-10). Pretty bad… and still better than the Flyers, whose last victory dates back to March 23.
• The race for the Presidents’ Trophy has narrowed a bit. The Rangers are still in command (110 points), and only Boston and Dallas (both with 107 points) appear to be viable candidates to catch them. Last week, six teams were within five points of New York, and these challengers had a lot more lead left. The Rangers, Bruins and Stars all have four games remaining on their schedule.
Eastern Conference
(M1) New York Rangers vs. (W2) Detroit Red Wings
Probability via Dom Luszczyszyn: 45 percent
The Wings deserve some credit for picking up four points in three games this week; they were 3-10-2 in their last 15 games. Their only loss came Friday night against, naturally, their opponent projected for the moment in the first round. No shame there. This week, the Rangers can win the Presidents’ Trophy and ruin the Islanders’ season. So they also have a lot at stake. They will be prohibitive favorites against whoever they face in the first round, but Detroit would be a particularly interesting draw. Both teams rely heavily on their shooting skills and power play, but only one is actually good.
Remaining times: Rangers — @NYI, PHI, NYI, OTT
Red Wings — WSH, @PIT, @TOR, MTL, @MTL
(M2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (M3) New York Islanders
Probability via Dom Luszczyszyn: 59 percent
Canes-Isles for a second straight season could be fun, especially if Ilya Sorokin continues to heat up. He stopped 43 of 46 shots and won both of his starts last week. The Isles have spent most of the season looking like the third-best team in the metro area, and now the seeding game. It will depend on two games against the Rangers and one against the Penguins (the last day of the season).
Remaining times: Hurricanes — @BOS, STL, @CHI, @CBJ
Islanders — NYR, MTL, @NYR, @NJD, PIT
(A1) Boston Bruins vs. (W1) Tampa Bay Lightning
Probability via Dom Luszczyszyn: 80 percent
Here is our first holdover from last week. The Lightning are still hot (10-2-1 since the trade deadline) despite a crazy regulation loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday. They’re not quite locked into the wild card spot – Game 82 will be against the Maple Leafs, who are currently four points ahead of them in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins, meanwhile, will spend their next 10 days trying to stay healthy and hoping the Rangers stub their toe. The Presidents’ Trophy would be nice, and a first round series against the second wild card might be nicer.
Remaining times: Bruins – CAR, @PIT, @WSH, OTT
Lightning – CBJ, OTT, @WSH, BUF, TOR
(A2) Florida Panthers vs. (A3) Toronto Maple Leafs
Probability via Dom Luszczyszyn: 88 percent
With games this week against Pittsburgh and Detroit, the Maple Leafs will be able to waste a season or two. They will also play a match against the Panthers, whom they beat 6-4 on April 1. More importantly, in this game, they chased down Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who they failed to figure out in last year’s second round. This is one of the many reasons why the rematch needs to happen.
Remaining times: Panthers – OTT, CBJ, BUF, TOR
Maple Leafs – PIT, @NJD, NJD, DET, @FLA, TBL
Western Conference
(C1) Dallas Stars vs. (W2) Vegas Golden Knights
Probability via Dom Luszczyszyn: 31 percent
At least one series in the West could serve as a conference final. For now, it’s Dallas-Vegas. The Golden Knights fell one spot thanks to a light week (two games) and a loss to Arizona. It’s not serious ; Tomas Hertl is set to play his first game since Vegas acquired him at the deadline, and the remaining schedule is split evenly between contenders and lottery teams. If they do enough to get back into the top wild card spot, all the better. Otherwise, we’ll see the two deepest teams in the West face off in the first round. Don’t count Dallas out for the Presidents’ Trophy either. They are three points behind Rangers, have won nine out of 10 and are playing non-qualifiers in three of their last four games.
Remaining times: Stars — BUF, WPG, MER, STL
Golden Knights – @VAN, @EDM, MIN, COL, CHI, ANA
(C2) Colorado Avalanche vs. (C3) Winnipeg Jets
Probability via Dom Luszczyszyn: 97 percent
Status quo from last week, although it should be noted that the Jets managed to get the train back on track, winning three in a row after a few weeks of ugliness. Now they have a real chance to overtake Colorado for second place in the Central and win home ice for this series.
Remaining times: Avalanche – MIN, WPG, @VGK, EDM
Jets — @NSH, @DAL, @COL, WED, VAN
(P1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (W1) Nashville Predators
Probability via Dom Luszczyszyn: 27 percent
Not a good week for the Canucks, who lost to Vegas and Los Angeles. They haven’t beaten a team in the playoffs since March 9 and have left a lot of work for them if they want to finish atop the Pacific. Nashville, meanwhile, rebounded from its first mini-slip since mid-February. They can clinch a playoff spot on Tuesday.
Remaining times: Canucks – VGK, ARI, @EDM, CGY, @WPG
Predators — WPG, @CHI, CBJ, @PIT
(P2) Edmonton Oilers vs. (P3) Los Angeles Kings
Probability via Dom Luszczyszyn: 44 percent
The Oilers could come and replace the Canucks. Depending on how the week goes, first place in the division could be at stake Saturday night in Edmonton. For the Oilers, staying in second place may not be a bad thing. The Kings are doing their part, with three straight wins and a plus-seven goal differential last week, but it’s still hard to imagine them generating enough offense to hang with Edmonton.
Remaining times: Oil tankers – VGK, ARI, VAN, SJS, @ARI, @COL
Kings – @ANA, CGY, ANA, MIN, CHI
Eastern Conference standings
Western Conference standings
(Top photo of James van Riemsdyk and Andrei Vasilevskiy: Mike Carlson/NHLI via Getty Images)