An early-season rematch will determine a spot in this year’s Final Four when Tennessee and Purdue meet again in Detroit on Sunday afternoon. The Boilermakers are slight favorites over the Volunteers in the only “chalk” Elite Eight matchup.
These two met in late November in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational. Purdue won, 71-67, in a game that seemed like a lifetime ago. This time, the stakes are considerably higher as the Boilermakers aim for their first Final Four berth since 1980; this is only the second time Tennessee has advanced to the Elite Eight (2010).
Purdue has looked every bit like a No. 1 seed, winning its three tournament games by an average of 26.3 points. Zach Edey, a two-time consensus All-American and Big Ten Player of the Year, took his already stellar game to another level, averaging 26.7 points and 16.3 rebounds per game while shooting 67, 4 percent from the field.
Edey is the Volunteers’ number one concern, but he is not alone. Braden Smith, another first-team All-Big Ten selection, nearly had a triple-double — 14 points, eight rebounds, 15 assists — in the Sweet 16 win over Gonzaga, and it was fellow countryman Fletcher Loyer who led the team in scoring. (27 points) in the first meeting with Tennessee.
The Vols have their own consensus All-American and conference player of the year, leading them in Dalton Knecht. The transfer from Northern Colorado took full advantage of the extra year of eligibility due to the COVID-affected 2020-21 season and now puts Tennessee at the cusp of program history. Knecht had 24 points in the win over Creighton, along with six rebounds and five assists. He shot just 38.9 percent from the field during the tournament, which is concerning considering he is the team’s primary threat.
Very few players have carried the offensive load for their respective teams this season like Edey and Knecht, and it has been no different in the Big Dance. Edey is responsible for 30.3 percent of the Boilermakers’ points, followed closely by Knecht (28.6 percent). As entertaining as this All-American showcase should be, everyone will have to do more than just score to help their team win. To that end, Edey’s size (7-foot-4) could cause the Vols problems on both ends of the floor.
Simply put, the Boilermakers have crushed their opponents – shooting 53.6% from the field, 43.3% from 3-point range, posting a +55 rebound margin – so far, while the Vols have had to work a little harder. Tennessee has a tough task ahead trying to slow down Edey and company, but it’s not like a No. 1 seed hasn’t already fallen.
What: Midwest Region, Elite Eight
Time of denunciation: 2:20 p.m. ET Sunday
TV: CBS
Location: Detroit
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Purdue vs. Tennessee Odds
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Expert Picks
Purdue vs. Tennessee Projected Scores
Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the outcome of every match in the tournament. Based on a million simulations of the 2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament, here are Austin’s projections for the Purdue vs. Tennessee point spread and total:
Projected point spread: Purdue-1.5
Projected total points: 147.5
Projected final score: Purdue 74.5, Tennessee 73
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Players to watch
Purdue
- Zach Edey, senior center, Big Ten player of the year, first team All-Big Ten, All-Big Ten defensive team
- Braden Smith, second-year guard, first team All-Big Ten
Tennessee
- Dalton Knecht, senior guard, SEC Player of the Year, first team All-SEC
- Zakai Zeigler, junior guard, SEC Defensive Player of the Year, All-SEC First Team, All-SEC Defensive Team
- Jonas Aidoo, junior forward, second team All-SEC, defensive team All-SEC
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(Zach Edey Photo: Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)