Champions League showdowns don’t get much bigger than this: Real Madrid take on Manchester City for a place in the semi-finals.
Madrid will look to reassert themselves in this season’s quarter-finals after last season’s semi-final humiliation against the same opponents. They held City to a 1-1 draw in the first leg of that tie last May, but then collapsed in the second leg at the Etihad, with Pep Guardiola’s side winning 4-0.
As was the case back then, the 14-time European champions will play the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday evening. And there is a lot to discuss, from who will play in central defense to the system Carlo Ancelotti might use and where the various contract renewals stand.
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Here, our Real Madrid writers Mario Cortegana and Guillermo Rai talk about the key questions heading into a week that will help shape Los Blancos’ season.
Mario Cortegana: I just arrived at the Valdebebas training ground in Madrid and it wasn’t just any day there. There were 120 people present at Ancelotti’s press conference, including 40 from non-Spanish media.
All Madrid players trained, with the exception of the injured Thibaut Courtois, David Alaba and Ancelotti, have revealed nothing. Tuesday’s first leg will be the Italian’s 200th match as manager in the competition, more than anyone else.
Ancelotti was asked if he would spring any surprises with his squad, but he said he didn’t think there would be “any strange things from me”.
“I didn’t communicate anything to the players,” he said. “There is a doubt, nothing more. I will communicate with the team tomorrow.
This feels like an early finale. I was told that Madrid would ask UEFA if they could use the new roof of the Bernabeu for the first leg to make the atmosphere as noisy as possible and the fans staged another spectacular welcome for the arrival of the team on the ground. Supporters call it “La Bussiana” in Spanglish.
Guillermo Rai: I was watching Ancelotti’s press conference from home and you could see he was more tense than usual. Despite his experience, the Italian admitted he was still “very nervous” about matches like this.
As for the atmosphere on Tuesday, there was a move to have everyone wear white at the stadium. Against Osasuna last month, there was a banner in the South Stand from Grada supporters demanding it, while some players announced it on their social media accounts.
Cortegana: It will be the first big night at the new Bernabeu – construction work on the €1.76 billion ($1.9 billion; £1.5 billion) stadium is well underway compared to the same period in Last year.
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There is another difference from last season’s semi-final against City. We then had the feeling that a heavy defeat could have serious consequences for Ancelotti (even if the Italian retained his position despite the beating in the second leg). This time, with the Spanish Super Cup already won, his team on track to win La Liga and his contract renewed until 2026, the atmosphere is different.
Moving on to Ancelotti’s starting lineup, there has been no doubt in goal for months after Courtois’ injury problems. Andriy Lunin, who is in the process of renewing his contract (his current deal expires in 2025), will start.
Rai: According to sources with knowledge of the negotiations – who, like everyone we talk about, will remain anonymous to protect relationships – we could have positive news on the matter in a few days. Lunin looks confident for the first time since joining the club in 2018.
Cortegana: That leaves Kepa Arrizabalaga on the sidelines again – he arrived on loan from Chelsea to replace Courtois but is now firmly second choice behind Lunin. The voices of the club and those around him take it for granted that Madrid will not seek to buy him this summer.
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Dani Carvajal and Ferland Mendy are both stalwarts on both sides of the defense and have had excellent seasons. Mendy missed both matches in last season’s semi-final against City due to injury, but he is a permanent fixture for Ancelotti when fit.
Ancelotti wants the club to renew the Frenchman’s contract, which expires in 2025, but I have my doubts whether they will make an offer. The potential arrival of Alphonso Davies could be a factor – unless Bayern Munich ask for an unrealistic fee, he is likely to join Madrid this summer.
Rai: Ancelotti has built a strong defense this season compared to last – largely due to the full-backs being supported by two midfielders (usually Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham) who drop back when Madrid defend.
Coaching staff sources describe Mendy as “very underrated” and he has become a key player in the defense. In principle, a meeting was planned between the club and the player’s entourage to decide on his future, but it remains to be seen who stays and who leaves this summer.
Cortegana: There are still doubts for Tuesday in central defense. As Athleticism reported and Ancelotti has since stated, the question is whether Nacho or Aurélien Tchouameni will partner Antonio Rudiger.
Tchouameni has played in this unknown position several times this season and I think he will start tomorrow – either as a central defender or in midfield. Madrid haven’t lost this season when he’s been a starter and Nacho has been disappointing when called upon. Those close to the Madrid captain say he has serious doubts about staying this summer and is considering potential destinations, including Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, Ancelotti had already chosen Tchouameni over Nacho against Osasuna last month…
Rai: Club sources even fueled the debate by saying that Tchouameni had the same chances of starting in central defense as Nacho. This does not bode well for the Spaniard given he is the only other senior central defender available apart from Rudiger.
It is well known that Nacho has a strained relationship with Ancelotti, but the last thing I heard from the player’s entourage was that he wanted to stay. If he comes on as a substitute on Tuesday, it will impact the rest of the team’s lineup and the midfield will adapt to Tchouameni’s absence. I think Eduardo Camavinga would be a good choice to pair with Toni Kroos, Valverde and Bellingham.
Cortegana: Kroos, Valverde and Bellingham are irreplaceable. Someone at the club recently described Kroos to me as “the best” and Valverde as “the most needed player”. Everyone thinks the German will renew his contract for another year, with his deal expiring in June.
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Bellingham has brought the team to superior quality despite being just 20 years old. I can’t wait to see him on the kind of stage he was signed for – remember he rejected other suitors before joining Madrid, including City, who offered him better financial terms.
Rai: Unless Ancelotti opts for an unusual system like the 4-5-1 Madrid played in the last 16 second leg against RB Leipzig, I see him playing his hybrid 4-4-2 formation. But the gap between these three midfielders mentioned above and the others is huge, much more so than when they faced Guardiola’s team last year.
Back then, Luka Modric was virtually irreplaceable in big games, but a lot has changed since then: the Croatian’s future is undecided, with his contract expiring this summer, and he’s only started 17 of 40 matches in which he participated. team for this season. If he continues to play this limited role, those close to him are sure that he will decide to leave Madrid.
Brahim Diaz could be an interesting option off the bench or a surprise inclusion, but others like Dani Ceballos and Arda Guler are far from the starting XI.
Cortegana: Ancelotti is not a coach who likes to experiment or take risks, so I don’t expect him to change his system.
I saw him throwing Camavinaga on the bench to protect him – the Frenchman would miss the second leg if he received another yellow card, like Tchouameni, Bellingham and Vinicius Junior. But on Monday, Ancelotti assured reporters he was not concerned about that prospect.
Vinicius Jr scored a brilliant goal in the semi-final first leg against City last year and another in the previous campaign’s epic semi-final between the teams. He has been involved in 14 goals in 16 matches against English opponents and will lead the line with Rodrygo. The latter is back fit and has fond memories of scoring a brace against City to inspire that return in 2022.
Joselu and Brahim would be the smarter options on the bench. These are two players who have given more to the team than the coaching staff expected, which is why they see them as the key to what Los Blancos have already achieved this season and what is to come.
Rai: The biggest question marks this season hang over Rodrygo given some inconsistent scoring spells, but for Ancelotti he has always been far ahead of Brahim and Joselu. Both of these players are doing everything right, but Madrid is Madrid – sometimes you have to settle for being a luxury support player.
(Top photos: Getty Images)