Trying to accurately predict the first round of an NFL draft is an exercise in futility, as trades on draft day create more disruption than Laiatu Latu on the USC tape. My most accurate final mock draft occurred in 2021, when most major trades took place before draft weekend, making it easier to predict the first round.
This year, the trade action will take place after the Commanders reveal which quarterback they want at No. 2. This will trigger a domino effect that will determine what happens at picks 3, 4 and so on. The uncertainty, however, means it is particularly difficult to set a final simulation this year.
Now that I’m done making excuses, here’s my final guess on how the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft will play out (with a few trades included).
Note: An asterisk before a selection indicates a projected transaction in this simulation.
No surprises at No. 1 this year – Williams will be a Chicago Bear.
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With new ownership, a general manager and a head coach, the Commanders regime is a collection of unknowns in terms of draft trends. But all the buzz around the league points to Daniels being the pick.
Some teams around the league think JJ McCarthy could be the guy here. But I’m staying with Maye. Could a last-minute trade offer prompt the Patriots to back down? Never say never. But I think it will take exceptional compensation to convince the Kraft family.
The phones will be ringing and general manager Monti Ossenfort is ready to get down to business. The opportunity for the Cardinals to draft their next Larry Fitzgerald could win out here, however.
It looks like it will be a race between the Vikings and Broncos to grab the fourth quarterback in the draft. In this scenario, the Vikings win and trade with the Chargers to take McCarthy.
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You could easily make a case for Odunze or Malik Nabers here, but which prospect will the Giants prefer? Odunze is the most complete receiver in this class. He has the size, speed, route running prowess, ball skills and yards-after-catch ability.
If Nabers is still available (as he is in this scenario), it would be difficult to pass up on him. But the Titans might have a chance to stabilize their offensive line with the best blocker in the draft.
For a team like the Jets looking to add an offensive playmaker, moving up two spots for a player of Nabers’ caliber would make total sense. A starting trio of Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Nabers? It would be hard to stop.
If the top three receivers go off the board in the first eight picks, the Bears would become much more of a wild card at No. 9. Murphy may not have the size they want, but he would be a great fit and he is consistently disruptive. versus passing and running.
10. Atlanta Falcons (from NYJ)*: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
The Falcons could find themselves in a strong position at No. 8, allowing them to trade up a few spots while still getting the player they would have taken at No. 8. Turner would give Atlanta an athletic player who can rush. and play the race.
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Jim Harbaugh selecting the strongest player in the draft wouldn’t really be a surprise. Latham could fill in at guard as a rookie until the Chargers need him at right tackle.
The Broncos are certainly eyeing first-round quarterbacks. If they can’t improve, Bowers would be a great consolation prize and could make a quick impact on this offense.
At one point, the Raiders thought they could potentially move back in the first round to get Penix. But with several other teams in the mix, they probably won’t be able to get cute.
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The Saints have a dire need at tackle, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they ultimately move up five spots or so in order to lock down their guy. The Penn State left tackle could be that target.
I wanted to project the Colts at No. 8 against Nabers — and that shouldn’t be ruled out. But the more likely scenario is that they stay put and see if Bowers or one of the top corners falls on them.
This lined up perfectly for the Eagles to trade up and get their right tackle of the future. Fuaga could provide immediate competition at guard before moving to right tackle, if necessary, as Lane Johnson’s eventual successor.
Could Thomas last until No. 28? Anything is possible, but Brandon Beane is an aggressive GM and won’t hesitate to move up to secure his man.
The Bengals always recruit with the future in mind, and Mims has the talent to become a long-term right tackle. He wouldn’t be thrust into action on day one, but would likely play at some point as a rookie.
The Rams haven’t drafted in the first half since the Obama administration, so this is uncharted territory. But if Fautanu (and his five-position versatility) is still available at 19, the decision could be pretty easy.
The Steelers could be in the running for a receiver here (like Thomas) or one of the tackles. However, it would be difficult to pass up Barton, who would be a plug-and-play center for an offensive line that needs to find stability.
The Dolphins are still looking for additional help at quarterback, and Latu is one of the most proficient pass-rushing prospects in recent draft memory.
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In the first round last year, the Seahawks selected the most competitive corner in the draft, Devon Witherspoon, who had twitch and ball production. They could do the exact same thing this year with Arnold.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (from MIN via CLE/HOU)*: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Yes, Worthy is a vertical threat, which would be fun to watch in an offensive quarterback led by Justin Herbert. But Worthy can also get open underneath and create explosives on overs and crossers. He would fill the role that Roman Wilson played for Harbaugh in Michigan’s 2023 offense.
If Fautanu or Barton gets to that spot, I think that would be the Cowboys’ pick. Things would get interesting with both out of the picture, as is the case here. A trade would certainly be possible, but if Dallas were to stay and pick, Guyton has the talent to be considered a left tackle of the future.
A potential deal to watch at this spot: the Commanders trade picks 36 and 78 for 24 to get a tackle they covet. The move would allow the Cowboys to go at center (Zach Frazier) or tackle (Kingsley Suamataia) at 36 and still have three more Day 2 picks to add young, inexpensive building blocks.
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As long as you’re OK with the slender body type, Wiggins is an easy sell in the draft room. His smooth movement and top speed allow him to cover different types of wide receivers.
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The Cardinals will be looking for passing help and high-motor players, which would make Verse a perfect fit for Jonathan Gannon’s vision on defense.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (from BUF)*: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Cornerback is obviously at the top of the Jaguars’ wish list. Even if they fall outside the top 20, there should be several potential fits late in the first round, including McKinstry.
The Lions would love to add more disruption to the defensive line, and Newton could provide just that. He looked outstanding at his recent pro day, in which Detroit was well represented.
Do the Ravens draft another Penn State advantage in the first round? Robinson has the best first step in this class and the upside of a passer who can produce double-digit sacks.
Morgan would have the versatility to move inside to guard while also being the team’s eventual answer at left tackle whenever Trent Williams, entering his age-36 season, decides to hang it up.
Leaders could take several different directions here. Mitchell would be a great fit on the outside and give the offense a player with legitimate No. 1 potential moving forward.
(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / Athleticism; Photos by Joe Alt, Malik Nabers and Drake Maye: Michael Miller / ISI Photos / Getty Images; (Kevin C. Cox, Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images)