With his 66th goal this season, Auston Matthews is alone atop the scoring charts in the salary cap era, surpassing Alex Ovechkin’s 65 in 2007-08. All time, only 20 seasons have seen a player score more goals.
However, not all scoring seasons are earned in the same way. Some players achieve high ratings because the scoring environment around them allows them to. Others did a lot of damage with the man advantage.
While every epic scoring season is special, some seem a little more impressive in context. Where does Auston Matthews’ magnificence this season stack up against the pantheon of other incredible scoring seasons?
The simple answer to this question is to go to Hockey Reference and find the adjusted score ranking. For those unfamiliar with period adjustments, Hockey Reference aims to put each season in the same context by adjusting games played, roster size and goals per game. Some eras had more matches, some eras had smaller squads, some eras had more goals. These three variables can change a player’s impressive production.
For example, Wayne Gretzky currently holds the NHL record for goals scored in a season with 92 in 80 games during the 1981-82 season. That season there was a record 8.02 goals per game, 7.91 without Gretzky. Adjust that to six goals per game, factor in two fewer games and one fewer roster spot and 92 goals turns into 68 adjusted goals.
That’s tied for seventh in the modern era. That’s also one less than Matthews this season.
For many, that’s usually where the analysis stops, leaving Matthews just outside the top five and far behind Ovechkin for dominance in the Cap era.
We can dive a little deeper than that, though.
What era adjustment doesn’t really take into account is situational scoring. It’s much harder to score at even strength than on the power play – and there are certain eras that have offered more opportunities on the power play as well.
Here’s an example: This season there have been 4.7 even-strength goals per game, which is pretty close to the 4.74 even-strength goals scored per game in 1991-92. But the power plays are also running at nearly 21 percent this season, well above the 19.2 percent average in 1991-92. And yet there were 0.8 more goals per game in 1991-92. The difference: two additional power play opportunities per game compared to today. This means more power play goals in general and more efficient scoring at even strength.
This is to some extent explained by era adjustment, but only to the extent that saying 6.96 goals per game is 13% harder than 6.16 goals per game. This ignores the fact that power play goals are actually a little easier to score now and that all of the difference (and more) comes from how difficult it was to score at even strength in this era.
With this in mind, we can tweak the era adjustment slightly, accounting for the difference in strength state in each season – as well as the difference in power play opportunities.
But we still need to go further and also take into account the degree of difficulty.
On average, a goal is 2.4 times easier to score on the power play and that means that when it comes to finding the most impressive scoring season, it might help to give those goals a lot less weight. This is not to say that power play goals are less valuable or less special: a goal is a goal and 60 goals is 60 goals. But the aim of this exercise requires giving more weight to the most difficult goals to score: goals at even strength. Essentially, a 60-goal season with 45 goals at even strength should be held in higher esteem than a 60-goal season with 30 goals at even strength.
Putting it all together, Matthews ends up with 64.3 adjusted goals – good for the third-best scoring season in hockey’s modern era and surpassing Ovechkin’s 2007-08 season.
Interestingly, Matthews doesn’t quite end up as the best of the cap era, but he’s really close. That honor goes to Steven Stamkos in 2011-12, who scored 48 of his 60 even-strength goals in a much tougher scoring environment. That gave Stamkos the distinction of best scoring season at even strength — and the only season better than the one Matthews is currently putting together.
As for the best season overall: it would still belong to Brett Hull in 1990-91.
No matter how the data is sliced, as long as it’s contextualized, the conclusion is clear: What Matthews is having this year is a season that’s clearly ranked among the top 10 scorers and arguably in the top five. He’s been absolutely legendary, especially when it comes to scoring at even strength, where only Stamkos has been more impressive.
It’s been a special year for Auston Matthews. Whether he hits 70 or not, this remains one of the best seasons ever.
—Data via Hockey Reference
(Top photo of Auston Matthews celebrating his 66th goal of the season: Rich Graessle/NHLI via Getty Images)