SAN FRANCISCO — Three more victories. If you’re looking for a properly calibrated target for this extremely uncalibrated Golden State Warriors season, I’ve got a simple one for you here.
Countdown: Beat the Kings in Sacramento on Tuesday, just like the Warriors memorably did in a do-or-die Game 7 in the first round last season; then hit the road again and advanced to the first round by beating the loser of the game 7-8 between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Los Angeles Lakers; and finally, the Warriors can finish this season quite creditably by winning at least one game and perhaps giving the 1st seed Oklahoma City Thunder a slight scare in the first round.
If the veteran and proven Warriors can summon some good old stuff a few more times over the next few weeks, won’t that be proof enough that most of this core is worth keeping together for a new attempt? broken season? I think so.
But if the Warriors don’t make it far enough in the first round, if they simply look too old to pull off anything important… that would mean falling below the qualifying line for a reasonably strong finish, in my opinion, and I don’t. I think the team’s front office and accountants would disagree.
Does this seem reasonable to you? Clearly, the Warriors want to win their fifth championship in this era and wouldn’t be thrilled if they were stopped before that in the coming weeks. But the Warriors’ journey as a 10 seed in the Western Conference is shaping up to be extremely difficult because, well, nine teams have finished ahead of them and deserve easier runs. We can judge the Warriors for the slip-ups and issues that led them to this fate, and absolutely all of that plays into the conclusions that will come this summer.
But what about now? What do the Warriors need to do to show that there is still enough life and talent around Stephen Curry to keep the core of this roster together and the payroll deeply entrenched in the luxury tax?
Three more wins, that’s what I’m saying. Fight your way to the first round. Go to OKC. Get a game. Maybe even two. (Note: The Curry Warriors have won at least two games in 29 playoff series.) Then see what happens.
And while Curry and the rest of the Warriors are rightly determined to stay in the moment and focus strictly on the next game, I think this team’s leadership is mostly on board with that. broader standard.
“I’m not really concerned about this ‘next season’ conversation,” Curry said before the Warriors traveled to Sacramento by bus on Monday; but then he continued with an additional perspective. “I think it’s pretty obvious that it would be a disappointment if we didn’t make a playoff and had the opportunity to compete at that level. You can make up any story that might come from this.
When this Warriors season is over, however it ends, it will be judged in the context of everything that happened before and everything that needs to be applied moving forward.
It will be seen in the final light of the Warriors dynasty and calculated with the belief that Curry probably has at least one more great season left in him. But it is also understood that Warriors owner Joe Lacob is unlikely to maintain the franchise’s record $400 million total commitment for next season without a realistic sense that a very deep run is possible in the next playoffs. The best way to prove it? By having a decent run in the playoffs – and racking up a few home playoff box office wins along the way. (A reminder: The Warriors’ total revenue from early home games is about $7 million per game.)
A good run could solidify Andrew Wiggins’ place on the team next season after a very slow start to the season. This could make Lacob much more willing to pay Klay Thompson’s free agent market rate this summer. This could ease any lingering prickly feelings related to lost time and lost games during Draymond Green’s two suspensions. This could lead to the Warriors either bringing back Chris Paul or trading his contract for more talent, instead of just letting him leave for nothing in order to reduce payroll.
A lot of things are in motion. A lot of things stabilized with the Warriors’ big second-half run after a 19-24 start, but a 10th place finish and a quick exit from the Play-In wouldn’t be the calmest way to approach this offseason.
For now, though, head coach Steve Kerr is either feeling a real sense of playoff peace or trying to make it exist. The Warriors have been here before. They’ve been in better shape, but they’ve also been in worse shape – particularly in the last playoffs and in the first part of this season.
“One of the things I’m most pleased with about the second half is the sense of ease and peace that every player seemed to feel,” Kerr said Monday. “I think Draymond and Klay are in a great position unlike earlier in the season. And that matters. It affects other people. So I really think this team has good chemistry. Draymond was a great mentor to the younger guys during the second half of the year. Wiggs is in a really good position.
“So it’s not just in our record, in our offensive and defensive ranking. It’s the atmosphere. And it’s a good atmosphere. Obviously we’re in a tough situation, we have to win two games just to get to the playoffs. Everything can happen. But I really believe in this group.
“I believe in karma. I think this group has earned some good karma. So we’ll see what happens here.
As Kerr later noted, the Warriors didn’t have a lot of good karma last season, but still managed to pull out that Game 7 victory against the Kings, thanks in large part, of course, to the Curry’s epic 50-point performance. And that game had ripple effects — winning that series and playing relatively well against the Lakers in the ensuing second-round loss was enough to convince Warriors management to keep things together. In fact, the Warriors’ big move was to get older, not younger, by trading Jordan Poole for CP3.
Future games will also have ripple effects. These huge games always do.
“I think in terms of optimism and confidence in who we are and what we can do on any given night, you have to maintain that, you have to believe in it,” Curry said. “I think so. It comes down to one game, then one game, and then hopefully more. But we understand what it is in this type of environment, an unavoidable scenario, the story of last year with Sacramento. The vibes are: “Go win a basketball game”; we know we can do it.
It’s a strange situation: The Warriors’ awkward home record (21-20) this season sent them to 10th place and gave them this brutal path on the road, but their very solid road record of 25- 16 is what gives them hope that they can get through it. from this place.
Oh, and also, yes, the Warriors have a sparkling 39-27 playoff record in the Kerr era (not counting Play-In games). Including their 7-8 Play-In non-playoff loss to the Lakers in 2021, the Warriors are 39-28 on the road in regular post-season games. That’s an incredible number.
But their most famous road streak ended in the Lakers’ final playoff series; During the Curry era, the Warriors had won at least one road game in 28 straight playoff series, from two years before Kerr’s arrival until the Warriors went 0-3 in Los Angeles in this series last May. (Before that Game 6 elimination, the Warriors were an incredible 4-0 in road playoff games in the Kerr era. Yes, every Warriors elimination loss before the Lakers series last year happened at residence.)
They have skins on the wall. They played well to close out this season, even in the crazy post-All-Star rush of 29 games (16 away) in the final 52 days of the regular season, which was partly due to games that had to be play. postponed after the tragic death of assistant coach Dejan Milojević in January. They’re off to this next challenge, all on the road if they’re good enough to keep winning.
“Our last eight weeks have prepared us immensely,” Draymond said Sunday. “We’ve been on the road for a month and a half, two months, quite a bit.
“We’ve done pretty well on the road all year. So know that we are capable of winning away matches. And when this team’s back is against the wall, I like the way the group presents itself. It’s not ideal, but it is what it is. We want to continue playing much longer this season.
Draymond, Curry and everyone else would never say the goal is simply to win three more games and get going into the offseason. That is certainly not their goal. They want to win every game and then have their fifth parade. But their goal was never to be a 10 seed either. Here they are, however, with another chance to do special things. If they get three more wins and then exit the scene, the Warriors will no longer live up to what they were, but will meet fair standards for what they have left and what can reasonably be expected for one more race next season.
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(Top photo by Stephen Curry: Amanda Loman/Getty Images)