The PGA Tour remains in Texas for the Valero Texas Open this week. The third oldest golf tournament on the PGA Tour will be played at TPC San Antonio on the Greg Norman-designed Oaks Course. As this is the final warm-up for the Masters next week, the field has quite a few big names looking to polish their game ahead of the first major championship of the year.
Rory McIlroy leads the pack and will play in San Antonio for the second time in 10 years. We have to go back to 2013 for his second place here behind Martin Laird. Former Masters champions Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott join McIlroy on court. Spieth and Scott won here and Spieth’s victory will come in 2021. Corey Conners is a two-time Valero Texas Open champion as well as the defending champion.
With the Masters next week, I will be betting and playing DFS at subpar levels. I want to protect my bankroll a little after a series of cold winner picks. I will build my model using shots gained on approach at over 200 yards; shots gained in approach within 100 yards, percentage of a putt and putting from 10 feet. It seems strange to emphasize putting with Conners winning twice here, but the stats don’t lie.
Course information
Course: TPC San Antonio Oaks Course — San Antonio, Texas
Conceived by: Greg Normand
By: 72
Footage: 7,438 yards
Average green size: 6,400 square feet
Features: Bermuda grass as well as native grasses, deep bunkers, tree-lined fairways and limestone walls facing some holes.
Former champions: Corey Conners 2023, JJ Spaun 2022, Jordan Spieth 2021, Corey Conners 2019, Andrew Landry 2018, Kevin Chappell 2017
The chances are PariMGM and live update.
Bet slip
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500 won shots across the board at the Cognizant Classic, which had everyone eager to add him to their cards at Bay Hill. However, he quickly lost shots in every major category before missing a cut. He bounced back at the Players Championship, finishing fifth and winning over 8.2 ball strokes. Fitzpatrick could ride a hot putter to a victory this week.
Alex Noren +3300 won strokes across the board during three tournaments. He won more than seven combined strokes on the field over the weekend in Houston to storm back for a T11 finish. He finished T15 here last year and is comfortable with the course.
Sleepers
Billy Horschel +3500 has won strokes across the board in three of his last four tournaments. His only problem was the missed cut at the Players Championship that happens to the best players. He finished T7 last week after winning the most strokes off the tee since last July at the 3M Open. He had some success here finishing third and T4 in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Harris English +3500 is in the midst of a fine run of form with four consecutive top-21 finishes. He has won more than two shots on approach in two consecutive tournaments. He hasn’t played here since missing the cut in 2019, but that doesn’t worry me too much.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000 has won strokes on approach in nine of his last 10 measured tournaments, with his only loss coming at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He bounced back the following week by winning more than seven shots on approach at the Players. He took a week off last week, which seemed strange because he could have fought his way into the world top 50 with a decent performance. He will need to win this week to enter the field at the Masters.
DFS
Rory McIlroy$12,300 finished second here in 2013 and missed the cut in 2022, so there’s really no form of course to bank on. The new DraftKings price required someone expensive to keep its spread format with players in the $5,000 range, but McIlroy hardly deserves it as he has had mediocre results on the PGA Tour this season. His dominance off the tee hasn’t been backed up by his wedge play or putting thus far.
Hideki Matsuyama, $10,600 was far from pushing Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark among the players. He won more than 11 strokes of the ball by hitting players. He’s winning shots off the tee again and already has a win under his belt this year at the Genesis Invitational. He finished T15 here last year and will most likely be the highest rated player I gravitate towards.
Ludvig Aberg$10,500 is first in the field in strokes gained over his last 36 rounds. He’s the best putter among the more expensive players, but he missed the cut here in 2022. I imagine Aberg is looking forward to next week and maybe not staying in the moment enough to play up to par of its price this week. I’m having a hard time knowing what to do with him this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick$9,700 See above.
Jordan Spieth9 $500 has been struggling since his T6 at the Phoenix Open. He has struggled on approach, to the point of losing more than 7.6 approach shots combined over his last five tournaments. He’ll still have a decent share of ownership because he won here, but I’d rather take Fitzpatrick or pay for Hideki.
Corey Conners $9,400 being priced in this range hurts my eyes, but it’s well deserved considering how he played here. He has the added responsibility of being the defending champion, which will take up some of his preparation time. I have so many low-cost guys I like this week that fitting Conners in, even at this price, isn’t a problem. He’s coming off two consecutive top-18 finishes where he won more than nine strokes combined on approach.
Byeong Hun An $9,000 has had an excellent start to the 2024 season with three top-eight finishes already. He had a tough week at the Players, but that can happen to anyone. I like the price and expect a rebound this week.
Billy Horschel $8,900 See above.
Alex Noren8 $700 See above.
English Harris $8,300 See above.
Christian Bezuidenhout $7,900 See above.
Aaron Rai $7,800 the price was high last week which made me look away from it as well as Jaeger. I overweighted their price versus their pricing history and it burned me. We’re getting Rai at a cheaper price this week after a very nice week in Houston. He won shots across the board, including more than four shots on approach as he finished T7 in Houston.
Akshay Bhatia $7,700 has gained strokes off the tee in 10 consecutive measured rounds and he has gained strokes on the approach in four consecutive tournaments. He won more than seven shots on approach in Houston en route to finishing T11. He puts the ball in the wrong place sometimes, but he has so much upside. I like that he’s been hot with the putter winning over 1.7 strokes onto the green in two consecutive tournaments.
Maverick McNealy $7,400 made seven straight cuts, including two top-nine finishes. He gains shots off the tee and greens, which made up for inconsistent iron play. This was ultimately a positive move at Valspar, even if it was a small gain.
Austin Eckroat7 $200 has gained over 2.9 strokes on approach in four consecutive tournaments, including his decisive victory at the Cognizant Classic. He’s struggled with his putter since the win, but his ball striking has kept him afloat. I like the price if it can bounce with the putter.
KH Lee $6,800 has finished in the top nine twice in his last four outings and has won strokes off the tee in four straight matches. He has gained more than 2.8 strokes of the ball in each of his last two tournaments. Nice advantage at a very low price.
Ben Griffin $6,600 still shows up well in my models, even though it has trouble coming off the tee. He has four top-37 finishes in the last seven tournaments. He won on approach and with his putter in three consecutive tournaments.
Max Greyserman $6,500 made the cut in four straight games with two top-15 finishes. He has won nearly five strokes with his combination driver in his last two tournaments and nearly seven strokes with his putter.
Ryan Moore$6,500 gained strokes off the tee in three consecutive streaks while gaining more than 20 combined strokes on approach during the same span. He still has quite a few struggles with his putter, but he has managed to overcome them by finding ways to score.
Cauley Bud $6,400 gained nearly five strokes of the ball last week, but continued to struggle with his putter. He lost more than three strokes with the putter this weekend, which slowed his ranking. If he can get his putter working this week, he could work his way up the leaderboard.
Mattias Schmid $6,300 has four consecutive top-26 finishes and has been dominant off the tee while winning 9+ strokes in his last three tournaments. It is priced too low this week and should be widely held.
Nate Lashley6 $200 finished consecutively in the top 21 while winning more than 10 combined strokes on approach. He won shots across the board last week.
Martin Laird6 $100 made five straight cuts with two top 10s included. He has a win here in 2013 against McIlroy. He made the cut here six times in a row before missing the cut in 2023.
Dylan Wu5 $700 has gained over 1.9 strokes on approach in three straight tournaments while gaining strokes around the green in five straight tournaments.
One and done
Each week we will make a selection in reverse order of ranking and we cannot duplicate selections in the same week. Reference this followed by a spreadsheet which we used.
Ranking
Brody Miller: $5,672,857.83
Hugh Kellenberger: $3,403,665.80
Dennis Esser: $1,645,017
Dennis Esser: I apologize if you used my choices. Missing the cut in back-to-back weeks with stings from Sam Burns and Jason Day. I take Alex Noren this week due to his incredible recent form and hoping not to put a curse on him.
Hugh Kellenberger: Hideki Matsuyama
Brody Miller: Sometimes life is boring. Corey Conners is annoyingly reliable. It is precise from the start. He doesn’t have any explosive bullets. He may not win often, but he’s making cuts and cashing checks all the way to No. 25 on DataGolf. Oh, and he’s the reigning Texas Open champion. Easy choice.
(Photo by Matt Fitzpatrick: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)