Welcome to the Monday tennis briefing, where Athleticism will explain the story behind last week’s stories on the ground.
This week, the European clay court swing began in earnest on the ATP and WTA circuits, with tournaments in France, Germany, Portugal, Spain and Romania. The top four players faced off in Stuttgart, Barcelona witnessed the return of Rafael Nadal and we witnessed a weightless serve.
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Do the WTA and ATP tours swap metas?
Over the past year, there has been talk of the formation of a “Big Four” in women’s tennis. It was a “Big Three”, consisting of Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, but Coco Gauff went on to win the US Open and become a very constant presence in tournaments, including the semi-finals of the ‘Australian Open. She also rose to 3rd place in the rankings. At the same time, the rapid emergence of Carlos Alcaraz, followed by the slower burn of Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev being Daniil Medvedev, and the elastic continuity of Novak Djokovic have forged new rivalries on the ATP Tour.
The last few months have turned this thinking upside down. Despite not winning a Grand Slam title since last year’s French Open, Swiatek continues to show all the signs of being a dominant world number 1 for quite a while. The other three haven’t provided the kind of consistency that would truly justify the use of a name that has its roots in the Roger Federer/Djokovic/Nadal/Andy Murray dominance of the 2010s.
A decade later, it’s easy to forget how many times these names appeared during the final weekends of the biggest events. Take 2012 for example: Of the 16 semifinal berths at that year’s four Grand Slam tournaments, Murray, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic accounted for 12. Murray, Djokovic and Federer also won three of the berths in semi-final at the London Olympics that year.
In Stuttgart last week, a rare mid-level tournament to attract the top four women, it looked like they might win a semifinal. But then Marketa Vondrousova beat Sabalenka and Gauff lost to Marta Kostyuk, with Elena Rybakina winning the tournament.
Next, Madrid. Perhaps this time the quartet will be the last in line.
GO FURTHER
Top women tennis players say the sport is broken. That is why
What’s behind Andrey Rublev’s eight-set fall?
Good tennis players can see their form dip. Right now it’s Rublev’s turn.
Rublev was world number 5 at the start of the year. He played up to his seed at the Australian Open, but has been in bad shape since being sent off in the final matches of a semi-final in Dubai against Alexander Bublik in February.
Rublev angrily protested a call to a linesman. Another linesman said the Russian had used profanity in his native language.
He did not do it.
Tournament officials refused to review the recordings before defaulting Rublev and he was stripped of his ranking points and prize money won.
The video went viral and the ATP eventually restored his ranking points and the money he had earned – but the damage was done. Rublev has only won one match since then, and he has lost to players far lower-ranked than him, including world number 44 Alexei Popyrin and last week, world number 87 Brandon Nakashima, who saw off Rublev destroy your racket after losing a match point.
The meetings weren’t very close either. Rublev is apparently healthy, but he’s just not playing very well, having lost eight out of 10 sets since default in a four-game losing streak.
Those stats aren’t great, but they’re not exactly down as sharply as his match results. However, take a look at something else…
The “dominance ratio” is calculated by dividing the percentage of return points won by the percentage of service points lost. The last time Rublev’s dominance ratio was this low was in 2015, when his highest ranking for the year was 185th in the world and his lowest ranking was 438th.
Coco Gauff does what Coco Gauff does… for how long?
Gauff receives a ton of accolades for his courage, his competitiveness, his ability to take out close matches, especially in three sets.
The American may have all these qualities, but she also knows how to do mathematics.
Gauff played 25 matches, winning 19 and losing six. Of these 25 matches, eight went the distance, and of these eight, she lost four.
This represents two defeats in 17 straight-set matches and four defeats in eight three-set matches.
What does all this mean?
Of course, his coach Brad Gilbert is the biggest proponent of the ugly win, but that has to include the “winning” part. Gauff almost always shows up, and it’s worth remembering that of those two losses in a row, one was to Sabalenka in the semifinals of the Australian Open.
She still needs to be a little more clinical. As exciting as it is to watch Gauff fight, as crazy as it is to see her win matches when she’s nowhere near her best, slim margins eventually catch up with players. That’s what happened in Stuttgart against Kostyuk, a player Gauff beat in three sets in Australia but who returned the favor in Germany.
It’s a microcosm of the draw that his three sets became.
GO FURTHER
Listening to women: the slow rise of female tennis coaches
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud peak – but at the right time?
Tsitsipas and Ruud are two of the best clay court players in the world. Ruud reached the final of the last two French Opens. Tsitsipas did the one before. Unfortunately, their opponents in these finals, Nadal and Djokovic, have won a combined 46 Grand Slam titles, including 17 at Roland Garros.
Still, Tsitispas and Ruud have earned the right to build their clay-court seasons to culminate at Roland Garros, as both should be alive deep in the tournament and, depending on how the tie ends, they might also have a chance to win it.
The way things are going, they might have run out of fuel in their tanks.
For a second consecutive week, Ruud and Tsitispas met in the final of a tournament, this time in Barcelona, where Ruud avenged his defeat against the Greek in Monte Carlo. It was Ruud’s third clay-court event of the season and Tsitispas’ second, with Madrid and Rome – two competitions just below the level of a Grand Slam – occupying the next four weeks of the calendar before the start of Roland Garros. That’s a lot of tennis, even for players in their twenties, like Ruud and Tsitispas.
Yes, it’s that time of year when clay court stars try to rack up ranking points and prize money, but is it too much? Djokovic certainly thinks so, at least for him. A master at saving energy and playing bigger events, Djokovic played in Monte Carlo, losing to Ruud in the semifinals, but he took last week off and also withdrew from Madrid. He will probably play in Rome, then travel to Paris – fuel reserves are high.
Kick, really good
It is a truth universally acknowledged — at least by readers of the beloved British children’s author Michael Rosen — that if you can’t go over or under you have to cross it.
Brazil’s raw but rising star, João Fonseca, does not recognize this truth.
How high does it go?! 😳
Joao Fonseca’s kick bounces OFF Sonego 🚀#TiriacOpen pic.twitter.com/t7X7OOI3CC
– Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 16, 2024
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🏆 Winners of the week
🎾 ATP:
🏆 Casper Ruud def. Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-5, 6-3 to win the Banc Sabadell Open (500) in Barcelona. This is Ruud’s first ATP title above the 250 level.
🏆 Jan-Lennard Struff def. Taylor Fritz 7-5, 6-3 to win the BMW Open (250) in Munich. This is Struff’s first ATP title.
🏆 Marton Fucsovics def. Mariano Navone 6-4, 7-5 to win the Tiriac Open (250) in Bucharest. This is Fucsovics’ second ATP title.
🎾 WTA:
🏆 Elena Rybakina def. Marta Kostyuk 6-3, 6-3 to win the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix (500) in Stuttgart, Germany. This is Rybakina’s third title in 2024.
🏆 Sloane Stephens def. Magda Linette 6-1, 2-6, 6-2 to win the Capfinances Rouen Métropole Open (250) in Rouen, France. This is Stephens’ first title since 2022.
🏆 Suzanne Lamens def. Clara Tauson 6-4, 5-7, 6-4 to win the Oeiras Ladies Open (125) in Oeiras, Portugal. In a wild finale, Tauson led 0-5 in the second set before winning seven games in a row, but Lamens then recovered from 4-1 down in the third by winning five straight games for the title.
📈📉 Rising / Falling
📈 Marta Kostyuk moves up six places, going from 27th to 21st place.
📈 Marton Fucsovics gains 29 places from No. 82 to No. 53.
📈 Magda Linette gains 12 places from No. 60 to No. 48.
📉 Carlos Alcaraz remains No. 3, but loses 1,000 points, erasing his gap with Daniil Medvedev at No. 4.
📉 Karolina Pliskova loses six places in the top 50, from No. 47 to No. 53.
📉 Dan Evans lost 20 places from #49 to #69.
📅 Coming soon
🎾 ATP:
📍Madrid, Mutua Madrid Open (1000) from April 24 to May 17. Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz (..?) Rafael Nadal (..?).
📺 United Kingdom: Sky Sports; United States: Tennis Channel 💻 Tennis TV
📍Savannah, Savannah Challenger (75) with JJ Wolf, Bernard Tomic
🎾 WTA:
📍Madrid, Mutual Madrid Open (1000) from April 24 to May 17. Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff.
📺 United Kingdom: Sky Sports; United States: Tennis Channel 💻 Tennis TV
Let us know what you noticed this week in the comments as the tours continue.
(Top photos: Alex Grimm/Eric Alonso/Robert Prange/Getty Images)