Teams with similar profiles and who have taken similar paths will face off when Creighton and Tennessee face off in Detroit on Friday night for the final spot in the Elite Eight. The top-ranked Volunteers are slight favorites over the Bluejays.
Creighton and Tennessee both rank among the top 30 teams in the country in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are two of the most experienced teams. To advance to the Sweet 16, each freshman defeated a mid-major before facing a tougher challenge against a power conference opponent.
These similarities, however, do not mean that the Bluejays and the Volunteers are mirror images of each other. Creighton is one of the best shooting teams in the country – ranking third in effective field goal percentage at 57.4 – despite an offense that focuses heavily on making 3-pointers. No team in the Sweet 16 made more 3-pointers than the Bluejays (25) and the 56 attempts accounted for nearly half (45.6%) of their total shots in their two tournament wins.
The problems arise, however, when those long-range shots don’t land. After shooting nearly 60 percent from long range in a comfortable win over Akron in the first round, Creighton went 15 for 39 (38.4 percent) and needed a double overtime to survive in Oregon. Tennessee also defended the 3-point line well, including holding Saint Peter’s and Texas to a combined 11-for-47 (23.4%).
The Bluejays are just as effective inside the arc. They rank third nationally in two-point field goal percentage (59.7), thanks in part to their size. The two key players are 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner and 6-foot-8 wing Baylor Scheierman. Creighton is playing with a six-man rotation, so Kalkbrenner, Scheierman and the other starters need to stay out of trouble.
For Tennessee, Dalton Knecht must avoid fouls for his team to succeed. The SEC Player of the Year has scored a total of 41 points and 17 rebounds so far, but he’s also shooting under 40 percent from the field. As a team, the Volunteers shot the ball very poorly against Texas – 39.3% overall, 5 of 16 from 3-point range. The biggest concern is that forward Jonas Aidoo is the only other player to have double-digit points in every game.
Tennessee may be deeper than Creighton, but it doesn’t matter if Knecht and Aidoo are the only ones to score. The Bluejays are also one of the better defensive rebounding teams, which doesn’t bode well if the Vols’ shooting struggles continue.
What: Midwest Region, Sweet 16
Time of denunciation: 10:09 p.m. ET Friday
TV: TBS
Location: Detroit
Tennessee vs. Creighton odds
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Expert Picks
Model projection: Tennessee 5.5, total 145
See all Austin Mock projections for the Sweet 16
Players to watch
Tennessee
- Dalton Knecht, senior guard, SEC Player of the Year, first team All-SEC
- Zakai Zeigler, junior guard, SEC Defensive Player of the Year, All-SEC First Team, All-SEC Defensive Team
- Jonas Aidoo, junior forward, second team All-SEC, defensive team All-SEC
Creighton
- Baylor Scheierman, senior guard, first team All-Big East
- Ryan Kalkbrenner, senior center, Big East Defensive Player of the Year, second team All-Big East
- Trey Alexander, junior guard, second team All-Big East
More coverage of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament
(Photo by Creighton’s Greg McDermott and Baylor Scheierman: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)