During spring training, most analysts predicted that the top three rookies in the American Leagues this year would be Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday and Rangers outfielders Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford. Holliday was dubbed baseball’s top prospect, Langford was having the best spring training of any rookie (.365 batting average, six homers, 20 RBIs), and Carter was coming off a sparkling debut in 2023, including being a valuable contributor in the playoffs. for Texas and finishing third, at age 21, in his training for the world championships. Langford, who had moved from rookie status to Triple-A in ’23 after being drafted fourth overall, was my preseason pick to win AL Rookie of the Year.
Fast forward to May 9 and Holliday is back in the minors after going 2-for-34 in the majors, Carter is hitting .218 and Langford is on the injured list with a hamstring strain after struggling in the beginning of his big league career. with just one home run (an inside-the-park job) in 116 at-bats. Now, I won’t be surprised if this talented trio is atop the AL rookie class in September, but production trumps potential in rookie of the year races.
Instead of preseason favorites, the AL’s best rookie has been sensational A’s closer Mason Miller. Other top AL rookies include pitchers Luis Gil of the Yankees, Simeon Woods Richardson of the Twins and Cooper Criswell of the Red Sox, as well as outfielders Colton Cowser of the Orioles and Wilyer Abreu of the Red Sox.
With six weeks of the season gone, let’s take stock of the Rookie races of the year. These are obviously small samples. These rankings will change: some rookies will catch fire, others will struggle; some prospects will impress after an order, and some lesser-known names will impress. But here’s my first ranking of the AL’s top 10 rookies based on their performance so far. (Check back for NL rookie rankings Friday.)
1. Mason Miller, RHP, A
Age: 25
Height: 6-5 Weight: 200
He was the best closer in MLB, with an unmatched wit and sense of humor. He converted all eight of his save opportunities and did it in style, throwing fastballs at 103 mph. He recorded a 1.10 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in 13 appearances and averaged 18.18 strikeouts per nine innings. His hard hit rate, xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, whiff% and K% are all the best in baseball.
2. Colton Cowser, LF, Orioles
Age: 24
Bats: L The throws: A.
Height: 6-2 Weight: 220
Although many analysts were practically handing the AL Rookie the Year award to Holliday, teammate Cowser, the fifth overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, has been the Orioles’ best rookie to start the year. Cowser leads all rookies in home runs (six) and ranks top three in OPS (.910) and RBI (20). Among all major league outfielders, he ranks in the 96th percentile for above-average putouts (defensive carry) and in the 97th percentile for arm strength and barrel%.
3. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees
Age: 25
Height: 6-2 Weight: 185
The Yankees needed someone in their rotation to step in when Gerrit Cole went down with an elbow injury. Enter Gil, who had thrown 33 1/3 innings in the majors before this year. The hard-throwing right-hander has electric arm speed up front with whipping action and athleticism. He leads all rookie pitchers with 45 strikeouts in 37 innings this season and has posted a 2.92 ERA in seven starts. Opposing hitters are hitting just .143 against him.
4. Wiyer Abreu, RF, Red Sox
Age: 24
Bats: L The throws: L
Height: 5-10 Weight: 215
Abreu leads all AL rookies with 27 hits and has reached base at a .368 clip. He has a big arm in right field, ranking in the 96th percentile in arm strength, as well as positive reach. He will step and is a smart base runner with average speed. He stole five bases in as many attempts.
5. Wenceel Pérez, OF, Tigres
Age: 24
Bats: B The throws: A.
Height: 5-10 Weight: 203
The Tigers expected Colt Keith to be their top signing after giving him a six-year, $28.6 million contract extension this offseason that could reach $82 million over nine years. However, the 22-year-old second baseman got off to a slow start this season, hitting just .162, and it was Pérez who opened his eyes. He’s hitting .286 with a .366 on-base percentage early on. He has a double, two triples and three homers in his first 63 at-bats in the majors. He has just two stolen bases but ranks in the 84th percentile in sprint speed.
6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Twins
Age: 23
Height: 6-3 Weight: 210
With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda leaving in free agency and trade acquisition Anthony DeSclafani undergoing season-ending surgery, Woods Richardson entered the Twins rotation and delivered. He posted a 1.74 ERA over four starts, striking out 21 and walking just five in 20 2/3 innings. The former Blue Jays prospect, acquired in the 2021 trade for José Berríos, is a strike pitcher with well-above-average extension. His most effective pitch was his erase slider; opposing batters are hitting .172 (5 for 29) against him with just one extra base hit.
7. Cooper Criswell, RHP, Red Sox
Age: 27
Height: 6-6 Weight: 200
Criswell, who signed a $1 million contract this offseason, has been a fascinating story for the Red Sox. He posted a 1.74 ERA over four starts and one relief appearance with a .234 batting average and 1.06 WHIP. Criswell, who made 10 appearances for the Rays last season, has a fastball run value in the 93rd percentile and a BB% in the 85th percentile. It has above average extension. He throws his sinking fastball just 29 percent of the time, but opposing hitters are hitting just .111 against it. His sweeper and cutter were his best putaway throws.
8. Evan Carter, OF, Rangers
Age: 21
Bats: L The throws: A.
Height: 6-2 Weight: 190
Carter is off to a slow start, hitting .218/.305/.419 with six doubles, two triples, five home runs, 15 RBIs and two stolen bases. He ranks in the 97th percentile for sprint speed and the 93rd percentile for pursuit rate. However, ball breaks and changes give him fits. He hits .154 against breaking balls and .160 against offspeed deals. Once he figures out how to rotate, I expect him to fly at or near the top of this leaderboard.
9. Ceddanne Rafaela, SS/CF, Red Sox
Age: 23
Bats: A. The throws: A.
Height: 5-9 Weight: 165
The Red Sox love his athleticism and defense at shortstop and center field. Rafaela, who signed an eight-year, $50 million contract extension in April, can play with the best of them and is Boston’s long-term answer at center field. He’s hitting just .213 but has done some damage with seven doubles, two triples and three home runs. He ranks in the 90th percentile in sprint speed, but needs to work on base stealing as he’s been caught three times in seven attempts.
10. Wyatt Langford, DH/LF, Rangers
Age: 22
Bats: A. The throws: A.
Height: 6-0 Weight: 225
Langford didn’t live up to high expectations early on, and now he’s on the IL with a hamstring strain and not expected back until June. However, I’m sticking with him as my AL Rookie of the Year pick. He hit .224 with just three doubles and a home run in his first 129 plate appearances and barely cracked that top 10, but brighter days are ahead. He ranks in the 98th percentile in sprint speed and has future 30 home run power.
(Top photos: Luis Gil: New York Yankees / Getty Images; Mason Miller: Michael Zagaris / Oakland Athletics / Getty Images; Colton Cowser: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)