UEFA’s average coefficient has rarely been so convincing. Based on the performance of participants from each league in Europe this season, two countries will be rewarded with an additional place in the Champions League group stage next season. Serie A will almost certainly get one. The Premier League and the Bundesliga are competing against each other.
The science of coefficients is not as inscrutable as it seems. Teams earn points by winning matches and progressing through competition rounds. There is no difference in weighting between different European competitions, meaning elimination from the Conference League is as important as progression in the Champions League. At the end of the season, all points acquired by the teams in each league are accumulated, then divided by the number of continental participants from that country.
GO FURTHER
How the new Champions League format works
Before the resumption of European football this week:
- THE The seven Bundesliga clubs have 114.50 points and a average coefficient of 16.357.
- THE eight Premier League teams combined for 130 points and a average coefficient of 16,250.
UEFA coefficient rankings 2023-24
Nation | Number of clubs | Average coefficient 2023-24. |
---|---|---|
Italy |
4 out of 7 left |
17,714 |
Germany |
3 out of 7 left |
16,357 |
England |
5 out of 8 left |
16,250 |
France |
3 out of 6 left |
14,750 |
Spain |
3 out of 8 left |
14,437 |
So England versus Germany: a new arena for their footballing rivalry? Not yet; it remains quite one-sided.
The Champions League is back…
From an English perspective, this mechanism has broadened the appeal of these knockout stages, extending it beyond the clubs involved. Instead of the old habit of partisans sneering at their rivals’ continental misfortune, this leads to uneasy dependencies and, ultimately, alliances as well.
Tottenham are battling with Aston Villa for fourth place in the Premier League. But if fifth place were to come with a place in the Champions League, then their return would seem more certain. A scenario which becomes much more likely if Arsenal eliminates Bayern Munich.
GO FURTHER
5-1, 5-1, 5-1: Analyzing Arsenal’s collapse against Bayern – and it’s all about Koscielny
Manchester United look certain to be exiled from the new Champions League next season, but they would have an outside chance if Manchester City defend their title this year. If West Ham beat Bayer Leverkusen, it would be one of the biggest upsets of the season. Advancing at the expense of another German team would all but guarantee England that extra place. Which would likely fall into the hands of Spurs.
If City and Arsenal are each eliminated, they can at least take solace in the knowledge that they will shut the door on their rivals on the way out.
These new places for lucky losers exist above all for the benefit of poorly managed “super clubs”. But their unintended effect has been to amplify interest in European competition.
While Premier League fans move into this UEFA Snakes & Ladders, the same cannot be said for the Bundesliga. Certainly not to the same extent; the coefficient is barely a subject.
In Germany, Bayern Munich dominates the media landscape to the exclusion of most other clubs. So, with Bayern assured of their place in the Champions League every year, coverage of the qualification race – and of these coefficient mechanisms – has been almost non-existent.
GO FURTHER
Why are English football fans still so obsessed with Germany?
While Bayern locks in one of the qualifying spots, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig traditionally have a firm grip on two of the others. Only once since 2017 have both teams failed to finish in the top four. This season, while Leverkusen is (soon) runaway champion and Stuttgart is already practically assured of its qualification, Dortmund and Leipzig are fighting for last place. It’s not really an event; nor is it a show for neutrals.
Leipzig only attracts opprobrium in Germany. Given how often Dortmund have qualified, it’s hard to believe their long-term fortunes are tied to their success this year. It would be a temporary inconvenience, yes, and would likely impact their ability to make loan deals for Jadon Sancho (Manchester United) and Ian Maatsen (Chelsea) permanent, but there would be little lasting impact on the brand.
Over the past five years, Dortmund’s commercial revenue has increased from €135 million (£116 million; $146 million at current rates) in 2019 to €188 million in 2023, helping them to reach a comfortable 12th place in the latest Deloitte Money League. Combined with this malicious indifference towards Leipzig, there’s not much at stake here. Whether or not any part is out this year, the trend suggests it will bounce back quickly in 2025.
Compare this to England, with its intrigues and implications. The Premier League is a pantomime, even a caricature, but the dynamic is very real. Aston Villa could ease their concerns over the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) with the boon of playing in the Champions League for the first time. Ange Postecoglou and Tottenham could give their daring style real legitimacy. Manchester United could perhaps soothe their bruised ego and buy more security from the much-maligned Erik ten Hag.
GO FURTHER
What we hear about Erik ten Hag’s future at Manchester United
It also seems that the culture around qualifying for the Champions League is different in Germany. It remains a goal and potentially a triumph – see Union Berlin last year – but without the incentive of long-term opportunities. Maybe it’s because the hierarchy is more rigid in the Bundesliga. The broadcast contract is not evenly distributed, but the material immensity of Bayern Munich and, to a lesser extent, Dortmund, also makes European qualification more of an adventure than a future-changing feat.
Villa fans might think that playing the Champions League is another step on their path to revival. Conversely, while the same might have been true for Eintracht Frankfurt, if they were in contention, or for Schalke or Hamburg if they were not mired in the 2.Bundesliga, the restrictions of the 50+1 rule (which ensures members retain control of clubs) and the absence of a wealthy upper middle class in German football means that the same mobility, or aspiration, does not exist.
The German football industrial complex – the media, the fans, the clubs – behaves as if it has bigger problems to solve. The war over the Deutsche Fussball Liga (DFL) investment deal has only just ended. The Deutscher Fussball Bund’s (DFB) controversial decision to break away from Adidas has sparked battles that are only just beginning. Add to this the numerous disputes across the country over kick-off times, ticket prices and police tactics and you get a sense of the ideological issues that engulf Bundesliga match days and an appreciation of the fact that, for many, performance stories don’t generate the same interest.
GO FURTHER
Hansi Flick, basketball glory and the culture war surrounding German football
Apart from direct competition, the feeling of rivalry between English and German football is also a real fiction.
The external assumption is that German football players must do everything they can to close the gap with the Premier League. The latter so quickly appears as the best league in the world that the temptation is to believe in competition and battlefields.
But the view in Germany seems to be that Premier League football is an exception – a runaway train that cannot be caught. Faced with investment restrictions in the face of the Premier League’s open-door policy, the Bundesliga can really only be an alternative.
Therein lies the context. A skirmish based on mathematical coefficients in an unwinnable war? It’s not the easiest thing to sell.
(Top image: Matthias Hangst/Getty Images)