The Premier League title comes down to a three-horse race, with the same number of teams left to battle it out at the bottom of the ladder.
A club has long been adrift and, with 16 points from 34 matches, Sheffield United’s immediate return to the Championship is only a question of when, not if.
Above them, Burnley and Luton Town look set to follow them into the second tier, but a mini-renaissance in recent weeks for the former and the fighting spirit of the latter throughout the season have kept their fleeting hopes alive .
Those hopes were helped considerably by a combination of points deductions and poor performances from Nottingham Forest. Everton, meanwhile, gave themselves eight points of respite after back-to-back wins.
Here we break down who can be relegated and when.
Pos | Team | General practitioner | DG | SPT |
---|---|---|---|---|
16 |
34 |
-12 |
33 |
|
17 |
34 |
-18 |
26 |
|
18 |
34 |
-28 |
25 |
|
19 |
34 |
-32 |
23 |
|
20 |
34 |
-59 |
16 |
When can Sheffield United be relegated?
The defeat against Manchester United on Wednesday night is over Sheffield United one match away from returning to the championship.
If they lose to Newcastle United on Saturday, their fate will be sealed regardless of results elsewhere.
Chris Wilder’s side are playing for pride (and only pride) at this point, as even a four-game winning streak to end the campaign probably won’t save them.
Although they won’t set the record for the worst points total in Premier League history (Derby County’s 11 points in 2007-08), Sheffield United did set the record for the most goals conceded in 38 matches in the Premier League. The four goals they conceded at Old Trafford took their tally to 92 – that infamous Derby side only leaked 89.
They won’t be welcomed with open arms by the EFL either, as a two-point deduction awaits them on their return to the second division.
Which clubs are safe?
If 18th-placed Luton win their remaining four matches, they will accumulate 37 points.
This means that all Crystal Palace teams in 14th and above are mathematically safe. 15th-placed Brentford are almost certainly safe, but three points will guarantee their elite status.
Luton are unlikely to collect all 12 points, but only one of their last four matches has come against a top-half team, so a comeback from seven or eight points is far from unlikely.
What about Everton, Forest, Luton and Burnley?
This is where the real danger lies.
Here’s how Opta views each team’s chances of survival.
Pos | Team | Survival | Relegation |
---|---|---|---|
16 |
99.9% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
64.2% |
35.8% |
|
18 |
28.3% |
71.7% |
|
19 |
7.5% |
92.5% |
A controversial 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest and a famous victory in the Merseyside derby on Wednesday night were moved. Everton within easy reach of safety.
Or Forest Worry, Sunday’s defeat – which left a bitter taste in their mouths as they feel they were denied three penalties against a direct relegation rival – left them a point and a place above of the drop zone.
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They face Manchester City on Sunday and could therefore end the weekend in the bottom three. Although, for now, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have their fate in their own hands and, as long as they can keep Luton and Burnley at bay, they will be safe.
Luton, meanwhile, need a two-point swing in their favor to overhaul Forest. Back-to-back 5-1 defeats, against City and Brentford, seriously dented their goal difference.
As for Burnley, they need to get past two of the teams above them to stay in the Premier League. Their most likely path to survival would be to take three points more than Luton from their remaining matches (while improving their goal differences) and four points more than Forest.
It seems a tall order for Vincent Kompany’s side, but they are the most in-form team in the relegation zone, having lost just one of their last seven games.
Relegation battle form table
The remaining fixtures involving these three teams look like this:
35th day
36th day
- Burnley against Newcastle
- Luton against Everton
- Sheffield United vs. Nottingham Forest
37th day
38th day
- Burnley against Nottingham Forest
- Luton against Fulham
…and point deductions and appeals?
Ah yes, the elephant in the room.
What has long seemed like a completely avoidable situation will likely still have a say in the relegation battle.
Everton had two separate points deductions; one that was reduced from 10 points to six and another two-point deduction that is under appeal.
Nottingham Forest are also awaiting the outcome of an appeal for a four-point deduction. The hearing on this appeal began on Wednesday, although it is unclear when the final decision will be made.
Premier League guidelines state that appeal procedures must be completed by May 24, five days after the last day of the season. The league’s intention is to close both appeals before the final round of matches, but there is no guarantee that will happen.
So off-field decisions could have as big a say in the relegation battle as on-field decisions, which is hardly a glowing endorsement for what many consider to be the best league in the world.
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(Top photos: Getty Images)