Just three weeks before the NFL Draft, teams around the league remain divided on what will happen with the No. 2 pick.
The Washington Commanders should select a quarterback at this location, but who? And what kind of chain reaction will this set off throughout the rest of the first round?
“The QB draft is going to be wild,” a high-ranking team executive said.
It has long been believed that USC quarterback Caleb Williams will go to the Chicago Bears with the first pick. Beyond that, opinions seem to change with the wind.
North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels have garnered the most attention lately, but Michigan’s JJ McCarthy used an impressive pro day last month to solidify his offseason surge up the draft boards.
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Athleticism surveyed seven team executives, coaches and scouts over the past week for an updated assessment of the QB class. Specifically, they were asked what they thought commanders would do at number 2.
Three of them thought Daniels would be the pick. Two thought it would be Maye. We predicted McCarthy.
The latest executive, who doesn’t pick among the top 10, didn’t make a prediction but said trading down would be the wisest choice. The executive believed the sophomore quarterback’s fall to the next level wasn’t too steep and the chance to recoup a bunch of future draft picks would be too attractive to pass up.
This collective opinion is in stark contrast to that of a month ago, when a poll of more than a dozen coaches and executives revealed that Maye was the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 2 quarterback in the board of directors. Daniels received some love at No. 3 and McCarthy was ranked at the top of the next tier.
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So what has changed? Three-quarters recently finished their professional careers, and it appears McCarthy emerged the biggest winner.
“JJ killed his training,” one executive said.
McCarthy was considered a strong leader with good athleticism and a strong arm, although he wasn’t able to show it off much with the Wolverines. But he let it rip at his pro day, and teams are increasingly intrigued by how these tools will translate to the NFL.
Maye’s pro day got off to a slow start with a few missed throws, observers said. However, they said, he called those plays back, hit them and finished hot. At 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, Maye has ideal size to match a Justin Herbert-style arm, and he has more than enough mobility to run a modern offense.
Maye’s leadership and character were also put on a pedestal. He is considered a quarterback who can command an NFL locker room very quickly upon arrival.
The issue with Maye revolves around his inconsistent 2023 check-in, which has been almost universally accepted over the past couple of months. There were some mechanical breakdowns and some throws that caused concern, and of course, some of those inconsistencies carried over into his pro day. One offensive coordinator came away wary of even giving Maye a first-round grade.
Daniels’ pro day was considered good but not great, or at least it didn’t match the hype he received this offseason. Then again, the hype has reached disproportionate levels with Daniels, so that might be an unfair bar to measure against.
Daniels has caught the attention of teams with his drastic improvements since transferring to LSU a few years ago. If he continues this trajectory in the NFL, he could become the best QB in the class. Standing at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds at his pro day, Daniels has elite speed and athleticism coming out of the pocket, and he has more than enough arm.
But how will the project evolve? There could be even more intrigue with this class than last year’s group, when coaches and executives debated the merits between Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson.
For much of the pre-draft process, it looked like Maye would move to No. 2, leaving the New England Patriots with Daniels at No. 3. Lately, it looked like the Commanders pick wouldn’t be that simple, and the Patriots would round up whoever remains available.
“Either one is good for (the Patriots),” one coach said.
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The Patriots have played it perfectly thus far, thoroughly researching top quarterbacks while putting the league on notice that the third pick might be available at the right price. Whether they’re looking for a godfather offer or just weighing the cost of moving down in the right scenario – maybe they only like two of the QBs, or maybe their top tier also includes McCarthy and others – the Patriots certainly don’t want teams. assume they are locked into No.3 when their rivals consider moving up.
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The wild card is McCarthy. If, as one executive predicted, McCarthy moves to second, television ratings in New England could reach historic levels on draft night. If McCarthy finishes third, teams like the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders could scramble to acquire the fourth overall pick from the Arizona Cardinals. While Maye and Daniels were not long ago considered a pipe dream for teams outside of the top three, a stratospheric jump from McCarthy could significantly adjust the draft plans of several teams.
Athleticism has reported for a month that the Cardinals were open for business at No. 4, likely for a team in need of a quarterback, but the fifth QB might not have to wait too long either. Oregon’s Bo Nix has been seen as the favorite in this spot, but don’t rule out Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., who has Yo-Yo’d from the third round to the first and back again more times than any QB in recent memory.
There’s a quarterback for almost everyone in this class. The top six all have different styles, strengths and weaknesses, which has created a ton of intrigue in front offices around the league.
Three weeks later, and there’s more mystery surrounding the 2024 quarterback class than there’s ever been.
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(Photos by Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy and Drake Maye:
Jonathan Bachman, Aaron J. Thornton and Mark Alberti/Getty Images