NASCAR is moving to Martinsville this week – and one lucky Cup Series driver will go home with a new clock. But who would it be? Despite Denny Hamlin’s short track dominance, there are a few drivers (and teams) who could take home victory. Also, did Martin Truex Jr. and Hamlin reconcile after that incident in Richmond? We dig deeper into Rajah Caruth’s preparation, and more! Join Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck below for our Cook Out 400 preview.
1. There is a spring and fall race in Martinsville. When you look at the recent winners, there are all the favorites: Byron, Larson, Bell, Blaney… Is there any reason to look at the fall and spring results separately? Or just “same song, expect same group”?
Jeff: It’s essentially the same thing and I wouldn’t want to divide the fall results too much from the spring results. But the only division might be the performance of the Next Gen track at Martinsville, which only represents the four most recent races. Who was particularly exceptional during this period? The Penske Fords team of Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, who both have a 3.8 ERA, three top fives and four top 10s. Blaney won the fall race last year to prove himself a formidable opponent entering the championship in Phoenix, where he subsequently won. But on the other hand, Ford has yet to win a race this season and the Toyotas have won every short/short track race so far (Clash, Phoenix, Bristol, Richmond). So your decision this week might come down to whether you think the Fords will show up at Martinsville like they did – or whether Toyota will continue to run at the short tracks.
Jordan: Martinsville is historically a track where a select group of drivers tend to dominate for a period of time, whether it’s a spring or fall race. And outside of the names already mentioned, it’s hard to imagine anyone launching as a serious contender. But the only difference between the two Martinsville races is that its fall date is not only in the playoffs, but the winner (if still eligible for the playoffs) punches their ticket to the championship finale . These stakes increase the intensity of the fall race where desperate, championship-hungry drivers are willing to do anything to win.
2. Who would you like to win this week at Martinsville? (Note: Ratings are listed below this question and answer)
Jeff: Denny Hamlin is the big favorite (+350), and probably for good reason. He’s gone 3-for-3 at short tracks so far this season, led by far the most laps in the last three Martinsville races (395, which is 245 more than Christopher Bell, the closest driver ) and counts three consecutive rounds. among the top five (fifth, fourth and third respectively). Hamlin is also Martinsville’s winningest active driver with five wins. That said, doesn’t Hamlin seem too obvious? I’m going to make it a little more interesting and go with Christopher Bell (+900), although I don’t really have a compelling reason other than Bell winning in 2022 there.
Jordan: Considering Hamlin is undefeated at short tracks this season, with wins at the LA Coliseum, Bristol and Richmond, and generally stellar at Martinsville, he should be the favorite. Martin Truex Jr. (+750) is another driver expected to contend on Sunday, as he is a three-time winner there.
3. Ty Gibbs holds the Martinsville Xfinity qualifying record (19.278 seconds) and won in 2022. Last year, you mentioned Josh Berry would be great here – but he missed the race by two weeks replacing Alex Bowman injured. Despite the recent run of favorites, is there still room for a distant winner?
Jeff: Certainly, and this could come out of the Stewart-Haas Racing camp. Last year, Ryan Preece (50/1 Sunday) led the first 135 laps until a speeding penalty ruined his chances. But it’s not that far-fetched to think Berry or Chase Briscoe (both +2500) could put it all together for a solid day. And if a driver occupies a position on the track at the end of the race, anything can happen. Briscoe, in particular, has four straight top-10 finishes at Martinsville, including a top-five finish in both races last season.
Jordan: SHR could absolutely play the role of Cinderella, with one of its four drivers being a viable dark horse candidate. Berry is particularly a good “sleeper”. He has a lot of tricks here and knows this place as well as anyone. Additionally, he impressed in the previous two short track races – finishing 12th at Bristol and 11th at Richmond.
4. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr. had an altercation in Richmond – which would be fine, except they’re teammates. Does something like this persist? Is anyone negotiating peace during the week? Who was wrong in this case?
Jeff: On Hamlin’s “Actions Detrimental” podcast this week, he said the longtime teammates had already settled it on Monday. Truex basically lost his mind after watching the race slip away in a matter of moments and took his anger out on Hamlin and Kyle Larson (who was also forgiving of Truex’s highly uncharacteristic outburst). Chalk it up to a moment of frustration from a veteran driver who doesn’t have many chances to win in his career, so seeing a certain victory disappear must have been incredibly annoying.
Jordan: This is absolutely not a problem. Truex rarely lets his emotions get the best of him, so considering how Richmond played out and the fact that Truex is one of the most respected drivers in the garage, it’s no surprise that Hamlin and Larson hold no grudges and everyone has moved on.
5. You lobbied for Richmond to drop a race in the future. But what if… you cover Richmond with dirt for one of them? (Or could they retool it like Atlanta did?)
Jeff: Personally, I’m just looking to cover the existing tracks with dirt. It looks like a band-aid or a gadget. If they want to do another dirt race, they should go to a real dirt track. And if they want to keep two races at Richmond, NASCAR should demand that Goodyear do something drastic with the tires (we saw how entertaining the track could be when the wet tires were used in the first 30 laps on Sunday) . Other than that, there’s not much you can do about Richmond’s setup with a guarantee that it would produce a better race, and he doesn’t appear to have fan support for two races anyway – so why not just go somewhere else. ?
Jordan: If NASCAR wants a dirt track on its schedule, then it should add a race at Eldora Speedway. The Ohio dirt track owned by Tony Stewart has proven it can successfully host a NASCAR national series race, which would likely alleviate some of the problems caused by Bristol’s dirt coverage. As for Richmond, barring a drastic change or last-minute change of heart from NASCAR decision-makers, the chances of having two races in 2025 are increasingly slim.
NOOB Question of the Week: Jordan’s article on Rajah Caruth was fantastic. One thing that stood out was how many drivers were amazed to see him taking notes and watching film. Isn’t that common in NASCAR? You see it all the time in MLB, NFL, etc. : coaches playing a film, players taking notes, etc.
Jeff: It’s very common for them to watch film, but Caruth seems exceptional at taking feedback from all corners of the garage. He goes to the observer’s booth to watch races from that vantage point, isn’t afraid to ask veteran drivers for their advice on the track, and generally puts in the extra effort to improve. This is where note-taking comes in, because you’d be surprised how many young drivers don’t ask veterans (even their teammates) for advice.
Jordan: Thanks for the kind words about the story. I was proud of how it turned out. As Jeff noted, Caruth’s work ethic is exceptional, often going above and beyond to find ways to improve his craft. And that level of dedication has turned many heads while contributing significantly to his improved results this season.
NASCAR odds at Martinsville (via PariMGM.)
(Top photo: Chris Graythen/Getty Images; Meg Oliphant/Getty Images; Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)