It’s been almost a month since UNC’s season ended, and the Tar Heels’ roster already looks drastically different.
And given the many moves still to come, this churn isn’t anywhere near over.
Let’s see what I hear:
What we know
Three players from this season’s Sweet 16 team — Armando Bacot, Cormac Ryan and Paxson Wojcik — are ineligible. Replacing Bacot and Ryan, who finished second and fourth in scoring respectively, will be particularly difficult. Bacot led the team in rebounding (10.3 RPG) and Ryan made the second-most 3s on the team, trailing only RJ Davis. In addition to their contributions on the field, these two were among UNC’s oldest players and best leaders.
So far, only one player has entered the transfer portal: forward James Okonkwo, who has since committed to Akron. Second-year guard Seth Trimble, arguably the team’s best athlete and perimeter defender, entered the portal earlier this month…but announced Tuesday that he would instead withdraw his name and return to the A C. Trimble cut his turnover percentage almost in half from his freshman season, according to KenPom, while also becoming a more reliable scorer. He is an ideal third guard and capable of competing to start in the future.
Then there’s Harrison Ingram, who announced over the weekend that he would enter the NBA draft. Ingram has maintained his college eligibility, which his public announcement did not mention…but the internal expectation is that Ingram is gone and will remain in the draft regardless.
Where could Ingram go? AthleticismNBA Draft expert Sam Vecenie had Ingram at No. 58 on his recent Big Board. This is a reasonable ranking; NBA Sources Athleticism spoke — who were granted anonymity because they are not authorized to publicly discuss draft prospects — are intrigued by Ingram’s potential, but still have questions after his lone season at UNC. Despite Ingram’s ideal size (6-foot-7, 235 pounds), for example, he is a very limited athlete. Can he guard NBA-caliber wings? Scouts aren’t sure and therefore project Ingram to be more of a stretch four (and even a potential small five) at the next level.
Which leaves the UNC awaiting another massive decision.
What’s next for RJ Davis?
Sources familiar with Davis’ thinking are in line with UNC’s internal expectations: that Davis declare for the NBA draft while retaining his college eligibility…and that he ultimately return to Chapel Hill for his fifth season .
If he does, Davis – the ACC Player of the Year, a first-team All-American and the Jerry West Award winner – would be in line for a seven-figure salary, thanks to various NIL opportunities .
If Davis were three inches taller, his decision might be much different. But at just 6 feet and 160 pounds, he doesn’t really attract NBA interest. It was not in the top 100 of AthleticismThe latest Big Board from , and two NBA scouts predicted that Davis would not be selected in this summer’s draft. There just aren’t many NBA examples of successful 6-foot guards; Fred VanVleet of the Houston Rockets is one of the few, but he went undrafted out of Wichita State in 2016 before spending much of his rookie season in the G-League.
Davis is already recognized as a UNC great — his jersey will hang in the rafters of the Smith Center — but he has a chance to further enhance that legacy with a fifth season. Davis is currently UNC’s single-season 3-point leader (113) and the program’s all-time leader in free throw percentage (85.8%). He’s also fifth all-time in scoring…but if he returns, he’d have a realistic chance to break Tyler Hansbrough’s record. Davis certainly doesn’t need to prove anything else at the college level, but there are other accolades — and money — awaiting him if he sets his sights on a national championship once again.
One final note on Davis’ pro prospects: Although he is unlikely to be drafted, he would almost certainly earn an invitation to Summer League, where he would likely compete for one of the 90 round-trip spots in the NBA. Even if he did get one, his NIL earnings next season would almost certainly exceed his professional salary – and especially if he ends up playing overseas.
Stock market situation
With that said, here is an update on the current UNC scholarship situation by position:
If Davis returns, that would leave Hubert Davis and his team with four scholarships to fill through the transfer portal.
Freshman Information
Any players UNC adds into the transfer portal will need to complement the elite high school talent Hubert Davis will bring in this summer: top 10 recruits Ian Jackson and Drake Powell.
Jackson is a five-star shooting guard ranked No. 9 nationally, according to the 247Sports Composite. At 6-foot-5 and 185 pounds, Jackson has ideal size to play either perimeter spot in North Carolina’s secondary — and his skillset is just as tailor-made. Jackson has a strong scoring instinct and thanks to his speed, he excels in attacking the basket. His jump shot, according to evaluators who have seen it, is his swing talent and what will determine his impact as a college freshman. Crayon Jackson as a starter, likely next to Cadeau and Davis, and as someone this coaching staff will depend on from the jump.
Powell — a 6-foot-6, 195-pound wing ranked 10th nationally — is also expected to play as a freshman, but probably less than Jackson. Powell was one of my favorite high school players to watch over the last two or three classes, mainly because he’s already a stifling defensive player; he has exceptional instincts and timing, which comes through when he steals the ball or blocks shots. Powell is more advanced defensively than offensively, although that shouldn’t hamper his early playing time — if anything, it will help his case as Hubert Davis looks to build another top-10 defense. Offensively, Powell can score, especially as an inside finisher, but his jump shot remains a work in progress. He’s currently a better passer than shooter, with solid vision and a propensity to set up his teammates. I’ve heard comparisons of Theo Pinson to Powell, and I don’t think they’re unreasonable; If anything, I’d say Powell is a better defensive player right now than Pinson was when he was entering college. Expect him to be a key contributor off the bench, especially given UNC’s current lack of wings.
Finally, there is three-star developing big man James Brown, who is ranked No. 108 nationally. Brown is UNC’s lowest-rated commit since Will Shaver, and he shouldn’t be factored into the frontcourt rotation heading into the upcoming season.
Intel Transfer Portal
What everyone wants to know: Who is UNC adding through the transfer portal?
I’ll throw out a name or two in a second, but first, focus on the broader needs. These are, in no particular order:
- At least one big beginner caliber wing, ideally one that shoots well from 3
- A rotation center that can compete to start with Washington
- Another rotating wing
The Tar Heels included former five-star recruit and Kentucky center Aaron Bradshaw, who ultimately committed to Ohio State. UNC has since been linked to several big men, including North Carolina native and former Tennessee starter Jonas Aidoo…but industry sources suggest Aidoo is likely to end up at Baylor or Arkansas. Whoever UNC adds at center, expect that player to be defensive-minded; UNC finished with the No. 8 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country this season, according to KenPom, and the internal hope is to replicate that success next season.
As for the top priority in the UNC transfer portal right now? That would be 6-foot-7 power forward Cade Tyson, the younger brother of former Clemson star and current Denver Nugget Hunter Tyson. Tyson is ranked #13 in Athleticism‘s list of top available transfers is the second-best wing to become available this offseason. Tyson made 46.5 percent of his 3-pointers last season, on 5.5 attempts per game; that rate was 15th best in all of college basketball last season, so it’s easy to understand UNC’s interest. But check out Tyson’s heat map, according to CBB Analytics, and his place at UNC makes even more sense:
Tyson made 53.5 percent of his corner 3s last season, making him an ideal fit for UNC’s secondary attack. It’s a similar reasoning to why UNC signed Cormac Ryan last offseason. Tyson also showed the potential to drive when defenses close too quickly, and even some flashes of ball handling in pick-and-roll scenarios. Defensively, Tyson will need to tighten up some things — he’s not great at navigating screens at times — but he would be an ideal four-man sniper, the latest such portal addition for Hubert Davis and his team.
(Top photo by RJ Davis: Greg Fiume/Getty Images)