While it may have taken longer than expected for some of the NFL’s best running backs, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, to secure long-term contracts, their deals didn’t necessarily result in a market correction for the position as a whole.
It appears that for at least a brief moment this offseason, the negotiating power shifted in their favor, and they capitalized — Barkley with a three-year, $37.7 million contract ($26 million guaranteed) with the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacobs to a four-year contract. $48 million deal ($12.5 million guaranteed) with the Green Bay Packers.
But unlike the league’s premium positions, for which prices rise every year, running backs still haven’t reached the value of the larger pacts of a few years ago.
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Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers ($16 million) and Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints ($15 million) still hold the top spot in average annual value, and both of their contracts were signed in 2020. Jonathan Taylor, who got his new deal with the Indianapolis Colts last season after a trade request, ranks third at $14 million per year. Beyond that, it was the first time in two years that a running back signed a multi-year extension worth at least $10 million per year.
Barkley ($12.6 million), Nick Chubb ($12.2 million) and Jacobs ($12 million) are the only others averaging north of $10 million, and Barkley and Jacobs have found their deals in free agency.
For comparison, nine running backs in 2023 were playing on contracts worth more than $10 million per year, although Jacobs and Barkley negotiated slight increases over their franchise numbers and Tony Pollard played on his title.
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Eight running backs in 2022 had contracts worth at least $12 million, but that’s when the change began. McCaffrey was traded midseason, Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook were released after the season, and Aaron Jones took a pay cut. Eight running backs in 2021 also signed contracts worth at least $12 million, and there were seven in 2020.
While a drop to six dollars from $12 million in 2024 isn’t necessarily a massive change, the combination of timing and circumstance is remarkable. Taylor, Barkley and Jacobs held out last summer in hopes of revitalizing the running back market, especially with free agency on the horizon.
“I’m surprised they got paid,” said one NFL executive, who requested anonymity so he could speak openly about the deal. “I haven’t seen anything that would change recent history this offseason.”
In 2022, Jacobs led the league in rushing and yards from scrimmage, and Barkley finished in the top five in each category. Both were first-round picks, still in their prime, and they couldn’t get more than a raise from their original teams.
Last month, both had to find new destinations to get better deals. As contracts around the league have shown, they haven’t been able to raise the tide around them. On the contrary, they remained the exception in this position.
“For some guys like Barkley, it’s about adding a piece to win the whole thing,” one coach said of the Eagles’ addition. “I think it will go back to being the relatively lowest-paying place.”
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Barkley, Jacobs and Taylor all missed a few games last season due to injuries, which doesn’t help alleviate teams’ biggest concerns about the position. Generally speaking, relying too much on one back, financially and on the field, is considered a gamble for injury reasons. All things being equal, teams would prefer a budget-conscious approach and rotating the backfield to keep the offense in rhythm if a player goes down.
“(All the more reason) to continue (doing business) as is, given that the two main drivers who received the label last year have not remained healthy,” said one executive.
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There was, however, a slight shift in favor of the position. Derrick Henry ($8 million per year), D’Andre Swift ($8 million), Pollard ($7.25 million) and Jones ($7 million) have all bolstered the upper middle class.
In 2023, there was a gap between the $10 million and James Conner, who ranked 10th in average annual value at $7 million. Today, 12 guards make at least $7 million, and there is no longer such a gap between upper class and middle class at the position.
Barring a major change in player leverage, the recent trend suggests that top backs are unlikely to consistently command $15 million per year again. But if they can maintain their value in the upper mid-tier, that should help the financial depth of the position as a whole.
Of course, quarterbacks have set the bar very high from a financial standpoint, and wide receivers, edge rushers and cornerbacks have also continued to compete in the race to get paid.
In 2020, 10 quarterbacks played on deals worth at least $30 million per year, but there will be at least 16 at that figure in 2024, including a dozen at $40 million. At receiver, four players averaged $20 million in 2020, but 16 are expected to reach that mark in 2024.
At Edge Rusher, $20 million players increased from five in 2020 to 12 in 2024. There were two $19 million cornerbacks in 2020, compared to eight now. At offensive tackle, there were two $20 million players in 2020 but 13 now.
The fact is, teams have adjusted their payroll to better reflect the game’s modern strategies. And while the salary cap has increased over the years, it’s still telling that financial dynamics have evolved with specific positions as running back contracts were deteriorating.
It was still a beneficial offseason for running backs, but that shouldn’t be confused with an about-face in teams’ financial investments. The league’s elite haven’t gotten the same contracts they did several years ago.
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(Photos by Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley: Kirby Lee and Kyle Ross / USA Today)