Paul Skenes is (almost) there. Let us rejoice and be happy. But how willing would he be to eliminate the big players? Even though he has dominated hitters during his brief time in the minors, the way he has already begun to expand and overhaul his repertoire should give the Pittsburgh Pirates even more optimism than they might have having him last year when they drafted him – although I still see him still needing to make at least one adjustment to how he uses his different weapons.
At LSU, Skenes was primarily a four-seamer/slider; those two types of pitches accounted for 91% of the pitches he threw in 2023, with one changeup making up most of the rest. He didn’t need anything else, since the two throws he relied on so much were both quite effective. He dialed the fastball up to 102 mph and missed more bats with it than most pitchers do with their four-seamer, and the slider was… well, thoughts and prayers were appropriate, as hitters whiffed more 60 percent of the time they went. after that. He barely threw anything else, because why would he help the batter like that?
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Skenes told the Pirates after being drafted that he wanted to try to add a two-seamer because he understood his four-seamer didn’t have much movement in both planes. It’s impressive for someone who can throw 102 to recognize that it’s not the purpose of pitching to throw extremely hard, an important element for a young pitcher to understand, especially since major league hitters have showed that they could achieve this. three-digit speed if it is straight enough. He’s already made a big adjustment to his arsenal, even working with the Pitch Counter Fairy who looks over his shoulder every time he tees off, adding a new pitch that is both effective in its own right and also seems to help the four-seamer player to play.
Paul Skenes made minor league hitters look stupid. 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/0ucCxeCAT5
– MLB (@MLB) May 8, 2024
His third most used pitch this year is his “splinker”, which he has thrown about a third as often as he has thrown his four-seamer (that is, one in four fastballs he has launched was the splinker). The splinker, which is a splitter-sinker hybrid, gives hitters a very different look because it resembles the fastball he holds in his hand and has very similar horizontal movement (only about half an inch difference), but it is 5 mph slower and drops 13 inches longer than the four-seamer. Triple-A hitters responded loud and clear, saying, “Thanks, I hate this.” » They breathed more on the splinker than on the four-seamer, just a little, but hitters swing and miss 30.2 percent of the time they give the four-seamer and exactly a third of the time (33. 33333….percent). , for you math nerds out there), they swing on the slinker. You could argue that he has three 70s (on the 20-80 recognition scale) in his arsenal and I wouldn’t argue.
Skenes had a small platoon split in Triple A, which meant the left-handed hitters hit it quite a bit and the right-handed hitters might as well have been swinging pool noodles. Splitters generally function as changeups, serving as weapons for hitters on the opposite side of home plate to prevent them from getting a start on a pitcher’s fastball, since any breaking pitch will tend to get into the ball anyway. the trajectory of their bat. The Skenes splinker is a splitter-lite, with half the calories of a real splitter – er, without the same “bottom” or downward break of a real split, but should be good enough to keep lefties from sit on the four-seamer. . He just doesn’t use it as much against lefties as against righties: only one in six fastballs to lefties have been splinkers, while two out of five of his fastballs to righties have been (15, 4% versus 41.7%). This is the opposite of what I expected, given the typical purpose of a splitter. I assumed that at least it would have consistent use regardless of the hitter’s hand, or if it was heavier on splinkers on either side it would be for lefties, as it will use the slider much less often for the left-handed for the reasons I mentioned above.
His approach to lefties in Triple-A was to simply attack them with four-seams and some changeups, a pitch he doesn’t use at all with righties. His changeup is more of an 87-88 with more arm side movement than fastballs and slightly less downfield movement than the splinker. It should be pretty effective, and that’s the handful of times he’s thrown it in Triple-A, but he’ll have to throw it a lot more often to left-handed hitters in the majors than to them in the minors.
The gap between Triple-A baseball and the majors is greater than ever, something I’ve been preaching since the minors resumed following the canceled 2020 season and none other than Baltimore Orioles general manager Mike Elias, the mentioned the other day when discussing the decision to send Jackson Holliday back to Triple-A Norfolk. I think this gap affects hitters more than pitchers at first glance, so while I’ve been conservative in talking about what starting hitters might do in their first go-round in the major leagues this year, I have l I feel like Skenes might miss his alarm. , rolls around PNC Park in his pajamas and still strikes out nine guys in four innings.
He’s big, big stuff, and he hides the ball pretty well for a guy his size. Some hitters will guess the fastball and cheat a little, which will mean a few extra harder-hit balls, maybe even home runs, while he makes some adjustments. The answer to this, and to keeping his ERA low, might simply be to use the slinker and shift more to lefties to show that he can get them out as well as he does to right-handed hitters.
(Top photo of Skenes at Indianapolis: Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Associated Press)