Viewership metrics are an important marker in sports media, given that money makes the world go round, but viewership stories in sports are generally, at best, adjacent to the play on the field. That’s not the case for this year’s women’s college basketball tournament. The hearing was rightly a major story – and an important topic in an ascendant era for women’s basketball. Iowa’s win over LSU in the Elite Eight, a rematch of last year’s championship game, attracted an average of 12.3 million viewers and peaked at 16 million viewers. It was the most-watched women’s college basketball game in history.
To give you broader context on the numbers:
• Viewership was higher than for all World Series games in 2023;
• He dominated four of the five games in the 2023 NBA Finals;
• It beat the 12.1 million viewers of last year’s Masters final;
• Only five college football games in 2023 had higher viewership.
UConn’s win over USC in Monday’s other Elite Eight game drew 6.7 million viewers (and peaked at 10.4 million viewers), which would have topped the viewership of all women’s college basketball title games since 1996, with the exception of last year’s championship game.
With this kind of viewership dynamic, what can we expect from the Final Four? We thought it would be interesting to look at the four potential championship games (Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on ABC) and predict their viewership potential, from highest to lowest.
Our top pick should come as no surprise. Iowa’s Caitlin Clark, trying to take down undefeated South Carolina, would be the mother of all audience clashes. It has everything one could want in a title match, from numerous future pros (Clark, as well as South Carolina’s Kamilla Cardoso, Milaysia Fulwiley and Te-Hina Paopao) to shooters, programs and highly followed coaches. The pacing would also be entertaining. Iowa and South Carolina both rank in the Top 5 of the Her Hoop Stats ranking points per 100 possessions.
I did a podcast this week with two of the nation’s leading sports viewership experts: Austin Karp of Sports Business Journal and Jon Lewis of Sports Media Watch. Karp said he could see this game reaching 18 million viewers. Lewis predicted the game would attract 16 to 17 million viewers and would surpass the men’s college basketball finale.
“I think 20 million could be at stake,” Lewis said. “An undefeated team and Caitlin Clark is exactly at that draw level right now.”
Audience prediction: 16.9 million viewers
2. Iowa vs. NC State
Title-seeking Clark will have a date to see if it’s against South Carolina or an NC State program that last reached the Final Four in 1998. NC State junior guards Aziah James and Saniya Rivers, are terrific players, but both are much less known nationally. the stars of the other three programs.
The same goes for Wolfpack head coach Wes Moore, who has long enjoyed the respect of the coaching profession. The interest in Clark winning a national title would be enormous, and NC State would also benefit significantly (recruiting, marketing) from that type of exposure.
Audience prediction: 14.1 million viewers
3. South Carolina vs. UConn
In any other universe, this tantalizing showdown would attract the largest number of viewers by far. South Carolina reportedly aiming for 38-0 season and just the 10th undefeated season for a Division I women’s basketball program. Dawn Staley is the coach of the moment in the sport, and the team features a top-five WNBA draft pick in Cardoso. The Gamecocks play fast and hard, bring a championship pedigree and have a habit of attracting viewers.
UConn has long been the sport’s standard-bearer among television viewers, with famous alumni everywhere, including two who host ESPN Megacast Options This Weekend (Sue Bird and Diana Taurasi). The Huskies also feature one of the most famous players in the sport, Paige Bueckers. The toughest decision was whether it would attract more than Iowa-NC State, and I just can’t stop people from seeing Clark potentially make a run for a championship.
Audience prediction: 10 million viewers
4. UConn vs. NC State
This match would feature Bueckers, who returned from injury to reclaim her place among the sport’s best players. It would also feature UConn coach Geno Auriemma chasing national title No. 12. With no disrespect to NC State, strictly on viewership analysis, UConn aiming for an unexpected title would draw to the both casual women’s basketball fans as well as longtime diehards.
Audience prediction: 8 million viewers
(Top photo by Caitlin Clark: Sarah Stier/Getty Images)