The Buffalo Bills don’t appear to have any plans to contend in 2024. General manager Brandon Beane’s roster purge this offseason found its latest victim Wednesday when star wide receiver Stefon Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans.
Diggs joins key veterans like Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse, Tre’Davious White and Leonard Floyd in what has turned into a strange offseason for the team that won the AFC East four years in a row and still owns the ‘one of the NFL players. best quarterbacks (Josh Allen) in his prime. The Bills’ big additions this offseason include Curtis Samuel, Austin Johnson and…Mitch Trubisky?
This doesn’t really mean all-in. The division looks wide open again in 2024.
GO FURTHER
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The Miami Dolphins also subtracted more than they added, moving on from Christian Wilkins, Jerome Baker, Xavien Howard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Robert Hunt and Raekwon Davis, among others, while adding at least a few notable veterans like Kendall Fuller, Jonnu Smith, Jordyn Brooks and Poyer.
The Jets have gone full throttle – all gas, no brakes, if you will – in an offseason full of talented (if) risky additions like Tyron Smith, Mike Williams and Haason Reddick as they try to win a Super Bowl with a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers. The Jets are no strangers to “winning” in the offseason, but we’ll see if that matters when the season begins.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots… the less said about their offseason, the better.
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After the Diggs trade, it seemed like a good time to see where all of these teams stand heading into NFL Draft season — and which team truly has the best team in the AFC East.
So I went position by position, ranked each group, and calculated a total at the end based on each ranking.
Let’s review it.
The Bills will rely on Allen’s heroics more than ever. He’s still the best quarterback in this division — he’ll just enter the season with the weakest wide receiver group of his career, pending what Beane does in the coming months. If Rodgers is healthy, there’s no reason to believe he shouldn’t be able to thrive with a talented supporting cast, even though he’s 40 and coming off a hamstring injury. Achille. Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a great year but still has a lot to prove. The Patriots will likely pair a rookie (Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, presumably) with Jacoby Brissett. The Jets also have the best backup quarterback in the division in Tyrod Taylor, which is remarkable.
The Jets have the best running back in the division. Breece Hall rushed for 1,585 total yards and nine touchdowns following ACL surgery, even though his offensive coordinator didn’t know he could be a weapon in the passing game until halfway through the season. The Jets lack depth at the position, but Hall is expected to leave in 2024. Miami has the best pair of backs in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, but both need to stay healthy. James Cook (1,567 total yards, six touchdowns) broke out in 2024 for the Bills, but he needs to be more consistent. Rhamondre Stevenson has been solid when healthy for the Patriots, but he missed five games last season.
Miami is the easy winner here. There’s nothing better than a Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle duo. As for the Jets: Garrett Wilson somehow managed back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with terrible quarterback play and a bad supporting cast. The Jets added Mike Williams, who should be a premier No. 2 if he is himself after suffering a torn ACL — and the Jets will likely draft another wideout as well.
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The Bills have Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins and Khalil Shakir. The Patriots’ top three players are Kendrick Bourne, KJ Osborn and Demario Douglas. In a word: yeah.
The Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid in the first round last year, and as of now, he’s probably Allen’s No. 1 receiver as well. He’s a legitimate weapon and Dawson Knox adds good depth. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper form a solid veteran duo for New England. Tyler Conklin is one of the most underrated tight ends in the NFL – he ranks seventh in receptions and 10th in yards among tight ends over the last two years – and has produced despite a lack of playmaking. consistent quarterback. The Dolphins duo of Jonnu Smith and Durham Smythe scare no one.
The Bills let Morse leave this offseason but still maintain a strong offensive line anchored by left tackle Dion Dawkins, and they replaced Morse with a solid veteran at center in Connor McGovern. The Dolphins lost Hunt and seem likely to let Connor Williams go, but retain arguably the best tackle in the division (Terron Armstead) if he can stay healthy. Tyron Smith also has a strong case to be the best left tackle in the division for the Jets, but he’s missed 37 games over the last four years, so it really depends on his availability.
On paper, the Jets have a case for the best line in the division — but their group includes Smith, right tackle Morgan Moses (coming off a torn pectoral) and right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (coming off a torn Achilles), so there are too many questions to rank them any higher. The Patriots retained Mike Onwenu, which was notable, but the rest of the group is a bit of a mess.
The Jets lost Bryce Huff and tried to replace him with Shaquil Barrett or Jadeveon Clowney before finally settling on… Reddick, one of the best passers in the NFL. He joins a group that already includes a Pro Bowler (Jermaine Johnson), a solid veteran (John Franklin-Myers) and a 2023 first-round pick (Will McDonald). Miami returns Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, but Phillips is coming off an Achilles injury. The Bills have a solid duo of AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau, plus a declining Von Miller. For the Patriots, Matthew Judon is a stud if healthy and Josh Uche is a productive passer, but they don’t compare to the rest of the division here.
Quinnen Williams (5 1/2 sacks, 20 QB hits, 70 pressures) is one of the NFL’s elite defensive tackles and his life should be even easier this season with Reddick in the fold – which means fewer double and triple teams. He’ll team with a mediocre veteran rotation in Javon Kinlaw, Solomon Thomas and Leki Fotu. The Bills have a better pairing in DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver and solid depth in Austin Johnson, but Williams is a head above them all. Christian Barmore (8 1/2 sacks) is only getting better for New England, while Miami should feel the loss of Wilkins.
CJ Mosley (2022) and Quincy Williams (2023) have been All-Pro selections in each of the last two years. Bills linebacker Matt Milano suffered season-ending injuries so it’s unclear what he’ll look like this year, but when healthy he’s a stud and Terrel Bernard (143 tackles, 6 1/ 2 bags) had a great year. Brooks (456 tackles over the last three years) has been a good pickup for Miami. The Patriots added Sione Takitaki to a group led by Ja’Whaun Bentley (114 tackles, 4 1/2 sacks).
The Jets have arguably the best cornerback room in the NFL. Sauce Gardner is already a two-time All-Pro in two years, DJ Reed has ranked among the top corners over the past two years, and Nickel Michael Carter II has had a breakout season. Carter, according to Pro Football Focus, ranked first in snaps per reception, snaps per target and allowed the fewest yards per snap among 36 corners to play at least 100 snaps in the slot.
The Dolphins cut Howard but bring back Pro Bowler Jalen Ramsey and add a good veteran in Fuller, while Kader Kohou is solid in the nickel. The Bills cut White, even though he was in decline due to injuries anyway. Taron Johnson is one of the best nickels in the NFL and Buffalo should be able to survive with Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford on the outside. Christian Gonzalez looked like a stud before an injury cost him all but four games for the Patriots, although Jonathan Jones was solid on the other end.
Jevon Holland has become a good player for Miami and added a solid veteran in Poyer to team up with. New England franchise-tagged Kyle Dugger brings back athletic Jabrill Peppers. Buffalo moves on from Poyer and Micah Hyde, but Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards should form a decent veteran duo. The Jets’ biggest weakness is probably at safety, where they are ahead of Tony Adams, but veteran Chuck Clark is coming off a torn ACL.
And the winner is …
To calculate, I added up each ranking and the team with the lowest score is the one at the top.
In this case: The Jets.
Final countdown
Rank | Team | Points |
---|---|---|
1 |
18 |
|
2 |
22 |
|
3 |
25 |
|
4 |
35 |
If we evaluate the quarterback position on a curve, the Bills would clearly move it closer. But the Jets hold first place in the five-spot group: running back, edge rusher, defensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback. Of those groups, defensive tackle is the only one who could argue he should be sidelined — but Quinnen Williams has a strong case to be the best defensive player in the division…alongside Gardner.
Now the Jets also have a lot of questions. No one should act like this team is going to win its first AFC East title since 2002. The Jets haven’t even made the playoffs in 13 years, a streak that leads the four major professional sports leagues. And even if their talent looks great on paper, that ultimately doesn’t mean much – and it’s a roster fraught with risk. Rodgers will turn 41 in December, their offensive line could be an injury or two away from disaster, Mike Williams has no guarantee of returning to form and at some point the injury luck on the Jets defense will run out. There are also questions about their coaching staff, which aren’t factored into this ranking.
But as we sit here in early April and the Bills continue to purge their roster, the Jets have at least put themselves in a position to take advantage of their decline with a talented roster of their own… if all goes according to plan.
(Top photos by Josh Allen, Breece Hall and Jaylen Waddle: Rich Barnes, Sarah Stier and Rich Storry / Getty Images)