More than anything else, horse racing is about making money. More than the pomp, more than the hats, more than the fancy cocktails, sport is about the game and, as we have seen, a long shot can find its way into the winner’s circle, causing exultation of those who hold winning tickets and discouragement. those who are not.
Two years ago, Rich Strike came out of nowhere to pay $163.50 to win on a $2 bet. In 2019, runner-up Country House was elevated to No. 1 after the disqualification of Maximum Security, who reportedly paid around $11 to win. Country House paid $132.40.
The 2013-2018 Derby renewals were pretty formal, but go back about ten years and you get I’ll Have Another (2012, $32.60), Animal Kingdom (2011, $43.80) and Mine That Bird (2009, $103.20). In 2005, Giacomo paid $102.60.
Some of the people who cashed in on these tickets did so with a clever handicap and seeing what other punters didn’t. Some people bet on Giacomo because they like gray horses. My friend who loves birds had a winning ticket on Mine That Bird.
So if you see a long shot that you like, because of its pedigree, because of its name, because of its trainer, throw down a few dollars. You don’t want to be that person who says “I wish, I could, I should” after the race is over.
Here are the long shots I’m considering:
Dornoch
Morning line odds: 20-1
The forecast for the weekend is gloomy, which is why I take a critical look at the horses who ran well on the wet track. Dornoch is one of them, having won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on a muddy surface last autumn. He is also a full brother to last year’s winner, Mage.
Mystical Dan
Morning line odds: 20-1
This guy also loves slops. He won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park by eight lengths on a muddy track, and while there’s not much else to inspire confidence, that might be enough to move him forward.
Honor Marie
Morning line odds: 20-1
He has a track record of inconsistent performances, and a wet track won’t help him much, so I’ll watch him if the track is rated good or fast on Saturday.
West Saratoga
Morning line odds: 50-1
In lesser competition he usually finishes in the money, but trainer Larry Demeritte is only the third black trainer to have a horse in the Derby in nearly 75 years, and that’s reason enough for he supports him and bets him. And although it’s named after a street in Colorado, the name also brings to mind my hometown in upstate New York, so how could I not?
Bastion
Morning line odds: 20-1
I’m more lukewarm with this guy than with some others; I like what he did on the track, but his racing style puts him in difficulty in a race like this, and he has never raced on a wet track. On a dry track, it deserves to be taken into consideration.
Resilience
Morning line odds: 20-1
He is trained by Bill Mott, a world-class horseman who doesn’t ride horses just for fun. That’s good enough for me.
(Photo by Mystik Dan: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)