As the 2024 NFL Draft approaches, betting markets can indicate how picks might pan out because they are efficient and pretty smart. Punters with inside information can place large bets on the markets and move the numbers significantly. Want a good example? Caleb Williams is now -10,000 (bet $10,000 to win $100) to be selected first overall.
Insiders can also change betting markets in a second. But savvy bettors love betting on the draft because it’s easier to project a pick than one team beating another team because variance and luck play a big role in matchups.
We will use betting odds to analyze the top 10. Predicting the NFL Draft is almost impossible, especially when one player selected can change the entire picture. But using data to see how people bet on the draft makes it interesting to compare with how NFL draft experts view top players and team needs.
All implied probabilities will remove strength from the betting market to give a more accurate probability of the player being drafted at that position. Crowdsourced odds are via BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365.
Odds as of noon Eastern Time Wednesday.
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The betting market – and just about everyone – has been pretty confident about this choice for some time. There’s not much to discuss here. Williams is the guy, except for one of the biggest “upsets” in NFL Draft history.
Choose the probability: 99.5 percent
This is where things get a little fuzzy. Daniels has been the chalk of second overall choice in the betting markets for some time now and is even the big favorite. I have my doubts, but the market is what it is and it says the Commanders are selecting Daniels as their quarterback of the future.
Choose the probability: 77.2 percent
While Daniels should be out of the picture, Maye becomes the Patriots’ big favorite. The QB2 on our NFL consensus big board seems like a bargain should he fall to New England with the third pick.
Choose the probability: 64.7 percent
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State
The QB race ends here as the consensus best non-QB in the draft heads to Arizona. Just a few months ago, I thought it was almost impossible that Harrison Jr. would make the board beyond the third pick, but quarterback inflation allows Arizona to get his WR1 for Kyler Murray.
Choose the probability: 53.4 percent
I can’t imagine a world in which the Chargers keep this pick and Jim Harbaugh selects his old quarterback, so the betting market implies a trade here. With whom, we’ll find out, but McCarthy is the favorite to be drafted fifth overall after factoring in his chances of being drafted among the top four picks.
Choose the probability: 32.9 percent
Now that the quarterbacks are out of the way, the Giants should get a true WR1 in Nabers. Daniel Jones needs weapons around him and Nabers could be the most explosive player in the draft. If the Giants can come away with Nabers, he will be a great pick at No. 6 overall.
Choose the probability: 28.4 percent
The best tackle in the draft has been linked to the Titans at this pick for almost the entire time the betting markets have been open. Alt could come in at No. 5 if the Chargers were to keep their pick, but right now the betting market thinks the Titans are getting a day one starter on the offensive line.
Choose the probability: 44.0 percent
This is where the project starts to get weird. Latu, Dallas Turner, and Byron Murphy all seem to fit in here, but Latu has gained momentum this week to be that pick. However, there is less than a 15 percent chance of that happening, so the picture is wide open here. There are five different players with odds above 10 percent to choose from here, so the market isn’t showing much confidence as we move past the Top-7, which makes this mock draft a little shaky.
Choose the probability: 14.7 percent
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Odunze is the most likely choice here, but a passer is certainly also a possibility. Odunze has a good chance of moving ahead of this pick, pushing him to the top of the list to be selected ninth overall.
Choose the probability: 24.0 percent
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
I don’t know if the Jets will go with Bowers for offensive tackle to protect Aaron Rodgers, but the betting market seems to think so. Honestly, it’s a perfect match. Rodgers adding Bowers as a pass catcher alongside Garrett Wilson seems like a lot of fun.
Choose the probability: 18.4 percent
Due to the odds offered by the betting market, selections after the Top-10 must use some projection. This includes the position a team is expected to draft, the top/bottom draft position of an individual player, and the odds of going in the first round.
12. Denver Broncos: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Taliese Guaga, OT, Oregon State
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
21. Miami Dolphins: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
23. Minnesota Vikings (via CLE): Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
28. Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
29. Detroit Lions: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
(Photo by Jayden Daniels: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)