Wolves at Mavs Game 4 odds, expert picks: Will Dallas punch a ticket to the finals?


The Eastern and Western Conference Finals were a story of seasoned veterans outlasting young talent. Like the Boston Celtics on Monday night, the Dallas Mavericks are the favorites to sweep the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight and head to the NBA Finals.

The fact is, the Timberwolves have already shown they can hang on to veterans after sweeping Phoenix and finishing off Denver in seven games. But we were waiting to see them go into beast mode in this series, and it just didn’t materialize. Despite matching Dallas for most minutes in each game, they have yet to pull out a win, faltering in the final minutes of all three games. Anthony Edwards has struggled to match Dallas’ star production, and unless the entire team can put together a stellar performance, it doesn’t look good for the Wolves.

Maybe the pressure of a playoff game will be enough to push this series to a Game 5 in Minnesota? But winning the series after being down 0-3 is, as every NBA fan knows, a historic improbability.

Here’s a look at the storylines, odds and staff picks for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday in Dallas.

All odds of PariMGM. Find the best deals on StubHub for tickets.

When. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves at no. 5Dallas Mavericks

How to watch: 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT

Dallas leads the series 3-0

Series odds: Mavericks -5000, Timberwolves +1400

The duo of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving have stepped up a gear in this series. Add in their supporting cast producing at a solid level and it’s hard to see Dallas giving up a win. Dončić and Irving scored a game-high 33 points in Game 3 on Sunday night, adding six steals, nine assists and 10 rebounds between them. The Mavs’ efforts led to their biggest win of the series thus far and increased their odds of winning the series from -600 to -5000.

But the numbers hide the fact that early in the fourth quarter, it really looked like Dallas might lose Game 3. Derek Lively II, a key to the Mavericks’ defense and their playoff plus-minus leader, went out with a neck injury and with the game tied at 87. It looked like an opening for the Timberwolves. Instead, the Mavericks scored 29 points, including 14 by Irving, and won the game by 9.

Of course, if Lively is out for Game 4, that hampers the Mavs’ progress.

The Timberwolves went from +425 to win the series to +1400. The youth of Minnesota show it. This is also not an indictment of Edwards or the team. They have already proven their talent and ability to take down even the reigning league MVP. This may be more of a symptom of fatigue than anything else. Their series against Denver was grueling and long. And they fought hard through each of those matches, but not hard enough in the end to pull out a victory. Game 2, in particular, was a heartbreaker, with Dallas pulling out a one-point victory thanks to a game-winning shot late in the game.

Edwards had a good game Sunday night, collecting nine rebounds, nine assists and 26 points, including a vicious, acrobatic dunk in the third quarter, in which the Wolves came back from a 12-point deficit. Karl-Anthony Towns had 14 points and 11 rebounds, but he went 0 of 8 from three. In this series, he’s shooting 27.8 percent from the field and 13.6 percent from 3. If he gets hot in Game 4, the Timberwolves’ chances look much better.

Ultimately, Dončić is an All-NBA player, and Irving has already done that. The Mavs continue to show a clutch factor that the Wolves can’t match, or haven’t been able to match yet.

Expert Picks for Timberwolves at Mavericks

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(Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)


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