Nine months later, 493 games, 1359 goals scored, a domestic cup and a first-of-its-kind league title, we’re finally at the end of the MLS season: the playoffs, culminating in the MLS Cup.

Inter Miami and Lionel Messi are heading to China to play friendly matches at the end of the season, and 18 of the league’s 29 teams are preparing for the qualifiers, which start on Wednesday and Thursday. And the nine in both conferences will play a one-off matchup to determine who will face their conference’s top seed in the first round of the playoffs.

Winning format:

The playoffs underwent an overhaul this season, with two one-off wild-card games followed by a best-of-three series in the first round of the playoffs. The first round must be winner-takes-all and home away from home, giving the higher-seeded team up to two chances to win in front of their home fans. Matches and first round matches will go straight to penalty kicks if the scores are tied after regulation.

If a team makes it past the first round, it faces the conference semifinals, which will be a traditional one-game elimination matchup hosted by the top seed. These games will have two 15-minute extra periods if the scores are tied at the end of regulation. This format will continue for the conference finals and the MLS Cup Final scheduled for Dec. 9, with whichever participating team accumulates more points during the regular season.

The playoffs are a safe bet to be exciting, dramatic and unpredictable, but the Athletics’ football staff (Tom Bogert, Elias Burke, Felipe Cardenas, Pablo Maurer, Jeff Rutter and Paul Tenorio) gave it our best shot at picking winners.

Play round

No team has had more exits on the final day of the season than the Red Bulls and Sporting KC. Whether it’s a late penalty shootout (Red Bulls) or a dominant home performance (Kansas City), the two sides have earned the right to host in promoting fashion. Charlotte FC’s presence in the play-in tournament marks an already successful second MLS season. It will show this season. San Jose has struggled with inconsistency, but has a lot to build on in 2024 and beyond under head coach Lucci Gonzalez. – Jeff Rutter

First round

The city of St. Louis — picked by many (including most of us!) to finish dead in the West later this year — could continue its Cinderella run. The Houston Dynamo, long the conference door, have proven to be one of the West’s most entertaining teams all year. They feel like a safe bet to hold a new US Open trophy and walk away in very good form. – Pablo Moore

St. Louis shocked MLS by finishing atop the Western Conference, but for some reason I can’t shake the feeling that they’re primed for an upset in the playoffs. They have outscored SKC 8-1 on aggregate in two of their three matches this season, and I’m still making this upset pick. – Paul Tenorio

Houston and RSL should be a blast. Going into the playoffs, they were two of my top three teams from the West in terms of MLS Cup potential, and they are the two most tactically adaptable teams in the league this year. – Jeff Rutter

Although they may be out for Game 1, I think Atlanta will get big games in Games 2 and 3 from their big players in forward Giorgos Giakoumakis and midfielder Thiago Almada. MLS Cincinnati and the Red Bulls both like to load up, which could make for an entertaining series, but I like Cincinnati to take it. – Paul Tenorio

I’m picking a bunch of boring favorites, I know, I get it, but these really seem like very intelligent choices. Nashville would be a sexier pick if they hadn’t been shutout in four of their last five games. – Tom Bogert.

I’m again asking to move the best-of-three round to the conference semifinals. On paper, these aren’t the strongest matchups to use as an indication of the league’s potential. For example, the two teams in the coldest form among the 18 teams are Philadelphia and New England, both at 1.0 points per game over their last seven games. Ideally, you can move it to the next round so that the real magic happens between the in-shape heavyweights. Chock plays here with forgiveness-from-three formats. – Jeff Rutter

Conference semi-finals

I think the LAFC vs. Seattle matchup could be one of the most interesting and unpredictable games ever. – Paul Tenorio

The Dynamo, captain Hector Herrera told me earlier this year, are a difficult team to open up because they don’t have a consistent style, which makes them adapt to different situations. As most of us predict, it will help them cope with playing away in St. Louis. – Pablo Moore

Ohio is coming! – Tom Bogert.

The prospect of a meeting between Cincinnati and Philadelphia is exciting. Those two best teams are flanked by two of the league’s most loyal fans and two of the league’s best tacticians and motivators in Philadelphia’s Jim Curtin and Cincy’s Pat Noonan. The connection between the two sides makes it even more impressive — Noonan was previously an assistant under Curtin and Cincinnati general manager Chris Albright were both technical directors for the union to lead a turnaround in Ohio. Philly definitely has a shot here, but it’s hard to bet against MLS MVP candidate Luciano Acosta, USMNT forward Brandon Vasquez, Noonan and the rest of the Queen City pack.

Orlando vs. Columbus could be the game of the postseason, with both of the league’s most talented and entertaining teams. However, Orlando’s ability to use during the break should have a good effect against Columbus, an unstable defensive structure at the time, which could be a quick classic. – Pablo Moore

Big Duncan McGuire has appeared on Orlando’s offense and I think they are ready for the playoffs. A game against Atlanta at this stage will reignite what has been a fierce rivalry between the sides, and that’s always fun to watch. – Paul Tenorio

Conference Finals

Are the Seattle Sounders the most entertaining team in the league? Not by a long shot. But credit goes to head coach Brian Schmetzer, one of the most hands-on coaches in MLS. – Pablo Moore

Seattle still feels inevitable, doesn’t it? After a strong opening quarter, the Sounders went through most of the regular season feeling a little stale. But now they’re the hottest team in the West (1.9 points per game over the past seven times) and Uruguayan Nicolás Lodeiro has announced he’s leaving the club to make a late run in the final MLS season. At this time. – Jeff Rutter

It’s on par with this year’s squad, coached by former Montreal Impact boss Wilfred Nancy, “every musician’s favorite band.” In a league full of forgettable teams, the staff doesn’t have much to look forward to (which is why they hold our watchability rating).

Houston has outperformed expectations in 2023, but I can’t see them winning the MLS Cup. – Pablo Moore

MLS Cup

LAFC won the Fan Shield/MLS Cup double last year, the first in MLS since Toronto FC did it in 2017. They have the league’s top scorer in Dennis Bowanga, experience from last year’s game and a strong coach in Steve Cherundolo. Cincy has the chops to do just that. Like all other championships, though, it takes a bit of luck. – Tom Bogert.

Arguably the best team in the league this season, FC Cincy will have the chance to complete a multi-year turnaround by going from the worst to the top flight. But I think LAFC will spoil one of the best stories in MLS this season and win on the road in Cincinnati. – Paul Tenorio

(Top photos: Getty Images)