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This week’s College Football Playoff rankings remain the same, but there was some movement in my ratings. Washington saw its stock rise slightly by clearing the USC hurdle, but most of the changes were in the chasing pack outside the top tier of its competitors.
There were 23 teams that made CFP in at least one simulation last week. Many of these were complete long shots. Only 11 of these groups performed CFP in more than 1 percent of the simulations. There are only 13 teams that have made a single token run this week.
Most of it is due to the loss of teams. LSU, Notre Dame, Missouri, USC, Kansas State, Air Force and Utah all lost, ending any long-term prospects for those teams. Plus, the more we go with five undefeated teams, the less likely we’ll see the total chaos of a two-loss team sneaking into the CFP.
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Here’s how the model works: I created a season simulator that creates odds for winning a national title, making the College Football Playoff, and winning conference and division titles. I developed a model that selects the playing teams after each simulation is completed. The playoff selection model is very simple and in my opinion similar to the committee selection process, as it creates a “standing strength ranking” for each season derived from past rebounding strength rankings.
Here’s how the national title contenders rank after Week 10, according to my model.
Projected national title and college football playoff chances
The biggest climbs in the national title opportunities
Washington: +3% (9.1% to 12.1%)
Ohio State: +2.3% (15.5% to 17.8%)
Alabama: +2.3% (1.4% to 3.7%).
There is nothing surprising in this group. Alabama beat LSU, which was the toughest game left on the regular season schedule. Washington beat USC, even though the Trojans are falling fast in my numbers, which counts. Even Ohio State’s win over Rutgers made sense as it was the toughest non-Michigan game left on the Buckeye program.
The biggest fallers in the national title chances
Oklahoma: -3.9% (3.9% to 0%)
Georgia: -1.8% (23.6% to 21.8%)
Florida State: -1.6% (11.7% to 10.1%)
The biggest climbs in CFP opportunities
Washington: +9.7% (41.4% to 51.1%)
Alabama: +8.8% (7.6% to 16.4%).
Ohio State: +5.5% (71.3% to 76.8%)
The biggest fallers in CFP opportunities
Oklahoma: -20.5% (20.6% to 0.1%)
Florida State: -4.4% (60.2% to 55.8%).
Georgia: -3.9% (74.7% to 70.8%)
(Kendall Milton photo: Jeffrey Vest / Icon Sports via Getty Images)