This week’s college football predictions are a little weird. Five weeks of Week 11 games are considered a toss-up according to my model.
Missouri vs. Tennessee is a top 25 matchup in my numbers and betting odds. The other four games my model has as a toss up are Virginia Tech at Boston College, Texas State at Coastal Carolina, UAB at Navy and Washington State at Cal. There are three other games where the projected margin is only half a point: Central Michigan at Western Michigan, Rutgers at Iowa and Arkansas at Auburn. We should have some fun games this week.
Among the big games, Florida State–Miami over are my best bets this week, as well as Alabama under Kentucky. Let’s take a look at the rest of the Week 11 slate predictions.
My model has point differential and point total for each FBS and FBS game. The model takes into account past performance, returning talent and recruiting standards. For additional context, we compare the model’s predictions with BetMGM’s lines.
Full week 11 model predictions
XMOV is the model’s projected winning margin for the game with the time of publication listed to the right by BetMGM. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total of the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as printed to the right of the number.
(Photo by Nicholas Singleton: G Fiume / Getty Images)